The Middle East crisis has gradually shifted from the Israeli-Kazakh war to the Israeli-Iraqi conflict, and the impact of the regional conflict has spilled over, and the Arabian Sea may usher in more waves in the future.
Since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in October last year, a new round of turmoil has begun in the Middle East. The war in Gaza dragged on and the conflict spread and escalated, gradually turning into a conflict between the Islamic Shiite armed forces led by Iran and the two camps of the United States and Israel. Shiite militias in Iraq and the US armed forces, Allah in Lebanon and Israel have exchanged fire, and the Houthis in Yemen have even extended the fighting to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, posing a serious threat to the security of global shipping and supply chains. Since April this year, with the outbreak of fierce clashes between Iran and Israel, Islamic Shiite armed forces and Israeli forces have confronted each other on a larger scale, and the scope of the conflict has gradually spilled over from the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea to the Arab Sea.
Crisis contagion transmission
In fact, the calm of the Arabian Sea has been shattered. In December 2023, the Indian Navy deployed three guided missile destroyers to the Arabian Sea after India said its oil tanker MV Chem Pluto was attacked by Iran in the Arabian Sea. It was also the first attack in waters outside the Red Sea since the Houthis triggered the Red Sea crisis. In April this year, as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps seized an Israeli cargo ship, the USS Aries, between the islands of Gesham and Hormuz. It is said that the cargo of the ship is mainly destined for countries such as Turkey, Belgium and Italy, and some containers are also destined for the United States. Iran's detention of ships in this critical area could easily trigger supply chain risks in key energy shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Persian Gulf, leading to the spread of the crisis to the Arabian Sea, an important international trade route.
New diseases and old diseases are superimposed
The Arabian Sea is located between the Arabian Peninsula and the Indian Peninsula and is part of the Indian Ocean. The Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman in the north, and the Red Sea in the west through the Gulf of Aden, are the main sea areas connecting the world's key energy waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and are also the main logistics channels for maritime trade between the United States, Europe, Asia and Africa. Under the influence of the Yemen crisis, the Palestinian-Israeli and Iran-Israeli conflicts, the sea area is intertwined with new and old diseases, traditional and non-traditional problems, and the security situation is worrying.
First and foremost is the security threat caused by the spillover of regional conflicts. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Red Sea crisis continue to ferment, social unrest in neighboring countries and the deterioration of the security situation in the Arabian Sea. Pirate gangs in Somalia have become increasingly active, and they have colluded with terrorist organizations, creating a new trend of land-sea linkage. According to the UAE's "The National" and other media, the merchant ships hijacked by African Somali pirates and other gangs have been transferred to countries near the Arabian Sea, which has become a new way for criminal organizations to "worship the dock" and violent terrorist organizations to earn black gold. Worse still, pirate groups began to follow the Houthi example and harass ships in the Red and Arabian Seas.
The second is the obstruction of global logistics and shipping. The Houthis have attacked the US and Israeli forces with anti-ship missiles, drones, and small ships at sea, and the scope and targets of their strikes have gradually expanded. The Houthis are familiar with the area, have extensive combat experience, and have Iranian support, and a protracted war with the United States and Israel could have wider implications. The bypassing of the Cape of Good Hope by trading ships from Europe, the United States and Asia has become a viable alternative to the Red Sea, but once the Red Sea crisis spreads into the Arabian Sea crisis, the security of global logistics, shipping and supply chains will be more threatened.
Thirdly, non-traditional threats in the Arabian Sea come to the fore. The natural environment of the Arabian Sea is complex, and the neighboring African countries, Gulf countries, and India have suffered from non-traditional security threats such as climate change and natural disasters for many years.
The main players influencing the security of the Arabian Sea
In the near future, in the context of the linkage of crises in the Middle East, Africa, South Asia and other places, the security risks in the Arabian Sea are rising, and the three major players deserve great attention.
One is the Houthis in Yemen. The Houthis, known as an important member of Iran's "axis of resistance" by the United States and the West, are Yemen's Islamic Shiite rebels whose basic ideology is anti-American, anti-Israeli, and anti-Western. The armed forces have risen rapidly in strength over years of warfare with Saudi Arabia and other countries. After the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Houthis became the primary anti-American and anti-Israeli force supported by Iran. The armed forces held the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and repeatedly used the blockade of the strait as a threat, mainly targeting Israeli and Western ships sailing in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. Houthi attacks have taken the form of helicopter or ship boarding, hijacking, and moving to areas under their control; the use of drone strikes to launch explosive devices; Launching missiles to attack ships, etc. Due to the complex security situation in the Arabian Sea, the scope of the armed forces' attacks on ships at sea has increased, and the risk of miscalculation and accidental injury to international vessels has increased.
The second is Iran. When the Houthis launched the Red Sea crisis, the United States accused Iran of deep involvement in the Red Sea merchant ship attack and provided intelligence to the Houthis, which Iran denied. In April of this year, in the face of an Israeli attack, Iran stepped forward and fought back forcefully. If the Israeli-Iran conflict continues to expand, Iran is likely to launch an attack in the Arabian Sea. Iran has repeatedly warned that it will "close important sea routes such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz" in the event of an escalation of the crisis.
The third is the forces of terror and piracy. The Arabian Sea is one of the most active areas for international terrorists. South Asia, the Middle East and Africa, which are adjacent to the sea, are the three major sources of violence and terrorism in the world, and the violent terrorist organizations are the largest, most concentrated and most dangerous. Among them, the extremist organization "Islamic State" took advantage of the Palestinian-Israeli and Israeli-Iraq conflicts to make a comeback in Syria, Iraq and other places, participating in regional wars and disrupting regional security. Groups such as the "Bata" and the Khorasan branch of the Islamic State have become active again in South Asia, colluding with other violent and terrorist forces across borders through the countries bordering the Arabian Sea. The "Somali Al-Shabaab" and the "Islamic State West Africa Province" are approaching the Arabian Sea across the east coast of Africa, and are closely linked to pirates and other criminal gangs. Somali pirates are rampant in the waters of the Gulf of Aden, and the threat of Houthi attacks on merchant ships has intensified the threat of Somali pirates, once they have mastered Houthi-like weaponry and attack methods.
In the long run, the Arabian Sea may become a new battleground in the great power game. In recent years, the United States and its allies have become increasingly aware of the importance of safeguarding the interests of the western Indian Ocean due to the turmoil in the Middle East and Africa, and the regional considerations of the U.S. strategic game against China. In particular, the United States, India and other countries are gradually turning their attention to the Arabian Sea, and may use the Arabian Sea as a testing ground for regional games.
In November 2020, the Quad of the United States, Australia, India and Japan held the Malabar Maritime Exercise in the North Arabian Sea. Since then, there have been many military exercises in the area. In June 2023, the Indian Navy sent two aircraft carriers and fighter groups to the Arab Navy to demonstrate its military might. Since the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the U.S. Navy has strengthened its deployment in the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf. the USS D. Eisenhower's aircraft carrier combat unit and missile destroyers and cruisers; India also plans to increase the number of warships stationed in the Arabian Sea. In addition, the United States and Western countries are actively deploying ports and communication lines in the Arabian Sea to open up their shipping lanes with countries in the Indian Ocean coastal region. In June 2023, the United States, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries are preparing to carry out corridor construction plans, and the United States plans to build railways in Middle Eastern countries to connect to India by port sea. The United States and Japan are also cooperating with Saudi Arabia to increase investment in the ports of Jeddah and Dammam in Saudi Arabia to increase their maritime layout.
As the United States and Western countries deploy to the Arabian Sea and practice the ability to blockade and control key sea areas and sea lanes in times of crisis, the Arabian Sea has gradually become a sensitive zone affected by the spillover of the Middle East crisis. How to seize the opportunity in dealing with regional crises and the new round of great power games and safeguard their own strategic interests has become a security problem that relevant countries cannot avoid.
Source: "China Institute of Contemporary International Relations" WeChat public account
Author: Sun Ran
Editor: Hu Liang
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