In just a few years, Tesla has grown from a startup to a megaloman with a market capitalization of more than a trillion dollars today. Tesla's success is not just a manufacturing or a hardware manufacturer. His success includes a combination of factors, including his vehicle manufacturing, big data, artificial intelligence, he has done it in every piece, it can be said that his technology is very advanced. From the current point of view, there is also a competitive relationship between the domestic new energy vehicle travel market and Tesla.
In the BEYOND Expo 2021 Future Mobility Forum, Huang Yuyong, founding partner of Yunqi Capital, and Hou Xiaolin, vice president of BAl Capital Investment, were invited to conduct in-depth analysis of hot topics such as "Investing in the Next Tesla" and focusing on hot topics such as competition in the new energy vehicle market and investment opportunities in future travel.
Hou Xiaolin said that the traditional automobile travel market is a structure that imitates the pituitary, that is, there are relatively few high-end and low-end, and the mid-end is the main sales force. However, the new energy vehicle market is not a spindle, but a dumbbell, that is, in the low-end market and the high-end market, relative volume. The reason is that electric vehicles in the low-end market meet the just needs of everyone to travel, and this part of the population is the mass market crowd. The high-end market is more about highlighting people's pursuit of smart electric vehicles. Because He Xiaopeng of Xiaopeng Automobile once said that the cost of electric vehicles is basically at least more than 150,000, because electric vehicles are not only a hardware car, but also include a matching software operating system, as well as intelligent user experience.
Huang Yupeng gave an example, when Gome and Suning competed in the end, both successful hypermarkets eliminated. The result of the competition between JD.com and Ali was to shut down Suning Gome. He believes that when Xiaopeng, Ideal, and Weilai are competing, it may be Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Ford, Honda, Toyota that are eliminated or they need to upgrade themselves again. Now with the demand for carbon neutrality and the encouragement of the government, electric vehicles will have a lot of space, the demand is very large, whether it is high-end mid-range or low-end will have a lot of contribution. Low-end cars are people driving, to the middle and high-end, will become intelligent, in addition to fighting hardware but also spell software.
Subsequently, the two guests expressed their views on the investment opportunities and investment value of smart mobility in the Chinese market.
Huang Yupeng said that looking back at history, when the iPhone 4 was released in the last decade, it ushered in the opportunity of 4G and the era of smart phones, and many people began to buy smart phones that year, at that time we thought it should be to invest in Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo or momo, Tencent wallet, Alipay These software or mobile phone parts are good. Electric vehicles now produce 2 million per year, basically put a battery, put a motor and then can be opened. There may be 50 million vehicles in the future, and at that time we should invest in the basic layer of components and software, and then on this basis, we can also invest in 5G, because smart cars have to be connected to the network. "As an investor, I wonder if 5G plus smart cars is a new era in the future, it is possible to invest in a remote driving company, from L4 to L5 I think there will be a lot of investment opportunities, is a platform opportunity." Smartphones can do a lot of things now, and smart cars in the future should also be able to do a lot of things. ”
Hou Xiaolin introduced that BAI Capital focuses on early and growth-stage investment, so the current investment, BAI Capital is more observed is a single point breakthrough, the entire industrial chain whether it is from the upstream manufacturing end, the supply chain end to the vehicle operating system, software side intelligence, and then including to the downstream user service cycle experience of consumers, in fact, there are many innovative investment opportunities. Therefore, in Hou Xiaolin's view, when laying out the opportunities in this industrial chain, more will pay attention to two points, one is that the point of single-point breakthrough is not sharp enough, if he can cut deep enough, and can expand into a platform of general technology, it is very worth investing. For example, there are now many new technology changes in batteries, such as solid-state lithium batteries, because the electrolyte may have been liquid before, but now the development of solid-state lithium batteries can solve the safety problems of liquid batteries before, including the problem of energy density, discharge efficiency, etc., and apply them to the entire electric vehicle industry. The other is that automatic driving is actually a general platform technology, we now electric vehicles refer more to the passenger car end, but after the Vivian listing, we have also observed the so-called pickup truck, as well as the previous domestic listed Weilai such heavy trucks, automatic driving technology can actually be applied to different models. In summary, Hou Xiaolin will pay attention to breakthrough technology, and the platform opportunity that can bring a single point breakthrough is a good investment opportunity.
Hou Xiaolin analyzes the market, and she believes that competitors from different echelons in the last decade entered the market. Now relatively concentrated, the industrial chain needs a very strong integration ability. For example, Hou Xiaolin said that the core components have extremely high technical barriers, so qualified high-quality suppliers are very scarce. The electric vehicle factory of the first echelon of the head can get the parts of the head at a very low price in the first time, and they have great advantages in control and cost, which will cause objective barriers to the participants who enter the market later. Now from the perspective of the market, to re-establish a complete electric vehicle factory, if there is no point of differentiation, there is something rare. Now from the national policy level, the integration of resources and capital is very encouraged, so the market will not be highly dispersed, but relatively concentrated in the head of a pattern.
Huang Yupeng also said that he agrees very much, there are three car factories in the United States, there are 200 domestic car factories, from this point of view, he believes that there is a need to have a certain integration ability, what the country needs to do now is to invent the future travel plan, it takes a lot of investment, we have now learned to do the car, but many parts have not learned, we do not do the motor is particularly good, in the semiconductor is also relatively weak, so it needs a lot of investment, need a lot of talent, these talents if scattered in 200 car factories, It takes a lot of experience, talent, and time to reinvent the same thing 200 times, so there can be a more efficient way. He also believes that there will be new brands and future modes of travel in the future, such as urban air mobility, and it is possible that in the next 5 to 20 years, we can witness history and witness these changes.
In the field of domestic electric vehicles, it is mainly residential and commercial at present. Huang Yupeng believes that there will be new application possibilities and investment opportunities in other fields in the future. "We believe that the future is an era of intelligent robots, intelligent cars are networked, and he will do all kinds of things. One of the companies we invested in, Qinglang, drove from the kitchen to the table and drove himself inside the Haidilao restaurant. More areas will happen in the future. We have also seen automatic driving in the mine, and there will be various new travel modes such as drones in the future, which will become intelligent.
Hou Xiaolin summarized the future application areas of her electric vehicles as electric vehicle technology for deeply implanted scene applications. For example, in mines and docks, manual operations are very dangerous, but it is relatively simple to do it with electric vehicles. Because the scene route path is relatively single, and it is more suitable for efficient and electric unmanned driving, it can be a good solution to the pain points of some mining farms or dock scenes. These scenarios are very dangerous once a safety accident occurs, so it is very good to use the electric heavy truck of unmanned technology to go directly to some mining, or logistics handling. Another scene is the scene of the service robot, the rise in labor costs, the Internet giant such as Meituan, he is doing the last kilometer of delivery, the cost of electric cars is relatively low, the last kilometer, whether it is in the office building or office park, he can be very efficient and fast in place of people to deliver food. "Looking to the future, flying cars are the new scenario that we hope to achieve in the next 10 to 20 years. He can not only solve some of the current traffic congestion problems, but also better meet our desire to explore the sky first, even if we can't go to space. “
Huang Yupeng added that Yunqi Capital invested in a company called Neolithic, and his unmanned car will drive to KFC or McDonald's in the morning, put the food in the unmanned car first, and then the car will run to the fixed point in the morning to make retail breakfast, so there are all kinds of fun things that will come out, and our lives should be getting better and better.
The last two guests analyzed the opportunities and challenges faced by China's new energy technology entering the international market.
Hou Xiaolin said that looking back at the previous era, China's manufacturing power went to sea, before relying on strong manufacturing capacity, good technology, low labor costs, and the so-called cost advantage to go to sea. However, at present, smart cars go to sea, and more is the advantage of China's advanced technology development. The three head enterprises of Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal have been sent to the European market one after another. Whether it is from the technical leadership, they are now going to sea without a cost advantage at all, and even more expensive than the local cars that are actually sold. In today's China, it represents the innovation of world-class technology to go to sea. This is a core competitive advantage or opportunity in our current industry. When it comes to challenges, it is mainly the challenge of policies and regulations and the challenge of the humanities characteristics of each country. Because different national cultures have differences, macro policies and cultural and geographical differences have led to a challenge that Chinese electric vehicles may face when they go to sea. Now these three are very focused on user experience and the management of the entire life cycle, we used to buy a car, he may buy back what it is, what is it when he scraps it, but now the electric car is completely different, he is an intelligent terminal, every once in a while to upgrade the software, all aspects of the content platform to be updated, completely need to locate the local content or geo-cultural customs, integrated into this system, if the software system is not so timely update, The entire user experience suffers.
Huang Yupeng judged that China is a big manufacturing country, has an industrial chain, is competitive, and there is no big problem in the future when cars go to sea. The second hardware is basically a global market, if it is a sensor, whether it is a Car Factory in the United States, a car factory in Europe, a car factory in Japan, you can buy hardware parts, but you have to do automatic driving, when you encounter data, you may encounter some people's "nerves", can it become an international market, at least the United States, Europe, China will be a little repelled. Third, now the smart car is not just fighting hardware, the essence is fighting software. Hardware is an experience, and many companies that can make cars may not be able to do a good job of software, which is a relatively big challenge.
BEYOND 2021
