On February 18, in the 7 pig production areas in the country, in the 28 areas that can be monitored, the quotations of slaughtering enterprises have strengthened in a wide range, among them, the northeast and north China are "a piece of red", and the local areas of East China and Central China also have an upward performance, and the quotations of slaughtering enterprises generally rose by 0.05 ~ 0.1 yuan / jin!
Specifically, in the northern region, most of the pig prices are stronger, the northeast and north China markets have risen in an all-round way, among them, in the Heijiliao region, the average price of pigs has soared by 5.95 yuan / jin, most of the market in north China is stable at 6 yuan / jin, in the northwest market Shaanxi is stronger, Xinjiang and Gansu sideways, the northern market is generally maintained at 5.65 ~ 6.2 yuan, Xinjiang market sideways 5.2 yuan / jin!
In the southern market, the quotation of slaughter enterprises is stronger, the southwest market, Guizhou rose by 0.1 yuan, Sichuan and Chongqing stabilized by 6.25 to 6.35 yuan, while in East China, the quotation of slaughter enterprises was weak and strong, Shandong stabilized at 6.4 yuan, and in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Zhejiang stabilized at 6.55 yuan / jin. In central China, Jiangxi and Henan are weakly rising, and the market in central China has stabilized by 6.15 to 6.3 yuan / catty, while in south China, the average price in Guangdong has stabilized at 6.65 yuan / catty!
Pig prices "moderately up", the market showed a strong trend of shock, North China and Northeast China, pig prices generally picked up! According to industry analysts, on the one hand, the northern market is weak, the price of pigs in the northeast and north China is less than 6 yuan / catty, farmers bear obvious losses, therefore, the group pig enterprises have the willingness to stand up, and slaughtering enterprises in order to stabilize the factory price of white strip pigs, there is also a willingness to stabilize the price, pig prices against the trend is strong! On the other hand, in the southern market, the performance of supply and demand is relatively slow, farmers have bullish sentiment, slaughtering enterprises fresh white strip shipments are not good, there is still price pressure sentiment, under the market supply and demand game, pig prices are weak and strong!
For "when will the pig price rise", everyone is eager to get an "answer"!
The price trend of hogs in 2022 has changed, and february may be the lowest point of the annual price
Due to the sharp losses since the second half of 2021, China's pig breeding market needs to "survive with a broken arm" in 2022 to regain a new life. We infer that the total annual size of China's pig farming market in 2022 will be basically stable or slightly lower than that of the same period last year.
On the one hand, the number of fertile sows since March 2021 has been basically "fixed", although the performance in terms of quantity has shown a downward trend, but due to the large number of low-capacity sows that began to be eliminated in the second quarter of 2021, the proportion of high-capacity high-performance sows has increased significantly, so the decline in the number of sows does not represent a decline in the output supply of large pigs.
At the same time, due to the substantial shrinkage of breeding benefits, the weight of large pigs out of the pen has begun to decline significantly in the second half of 2021, and the pig breeding cycle in 2022 will be significantly shorter than that of 2020 and 2021, and will gradually return to the possibility of about 5 and a half months, so the number of pigs out of the pen continues to grow and the total annual breeding scale is flat or slightly declining.
According to the data deduced by the Data Research Department of China Feed Industry Information Network Huitong, it is expected that in 2022, the average annual inventory of Fertile Sows in China will drop by about 4-5 percentage points year-on-year, the listing volume of commercial piglets will drop by about 7 percentage points year-on-year, and the total annual output of large pigs out of the bar will continue to increase by about 3-4 percentage points year-on-year.
In terms of prices, during the period of January and February 2022, the price of large pigs in the barn showed a downward trend, and it is expected that the lowest monthly average price of the whole year will appear in February, and the probability of the lowest monthly price in February will increase significantly, the price will rebound significantly in March and April, and the slight decline in May will be high, and the probability of the overall trend in June and December will be high. The annual average price of big pigs out of the pen is very high, and the deduction data shows that the annual weighted average price in 2022 is more likely to appear between 14-15 yuan / kg. There is a clear difference between the monthly price trend forecast and the prediction that the price will continue to fall in January and April, bottom around May, and rise overall in June and December.