After the plunge, it is now rising! Ningde era shouted the police, "back to blood" on the road?

The Ningde era opened up rumors and ended the bottomless stock price "open door black".

On February 14, the Ningde era opened low and went high, and the stock price returned to 500 yuan, and as of the noon close, the stock price of the Ningde era was 509.33 yuan, an increase of 3.95%.

A day earlier, CATL issued a statement saying that the recent network platform has appeared a series of malicious rumors such as ningde times being sanctioned by the United States, being excluded from the CHINext weight index, and talking with Tesla, which have caused market misunderstandings and misinterpretations, affecting corporate reputation, rumors are unfounded, and of a bad nature, and CATL has reported to the public security organs on February 12, and will pursue legal responsibility for rumor-mongers.

On the same day, Tesla spoke out for its platform: talking with Tesla is indeed not true.

In the first week of the opening of the Year of the Tiger, although the performance was good, the stock price of the Ningde era fell one after another. For five consecutive trading days, the stock price of CATL times continued to decline. As of the close of trading on February 11, the stock price of CATL had fallen by 5.43%, and the cumulative decline in five trading days was 17.32%.

In the industry's view, although the basic orientation of the Ningde era is good, the industry boom in 2022 is still the same, but there are still hidden worries.

The market value shrank by more than 200 billion yuan, and the Ningde era was "slandered" by rumors.

The stock price of CATL staged a continuous dive. As of the close of trading on February 11, the stock price of CATL closed at 489.99 yuan / share, a decline of 5.43%, and the stock price of the day once fell to the lowest point in the past three months at 489.36 yuan / share. On friday, the stock price of Ningde Times fell by 17.32% in the past five trading days, and the market value shrank by nearly 240 billion yuan.

Stretch the timeline again to last December. On December 3 last year, the stock price of CATL rushed to a record high of 692 yuan / share; if calculated from the high point of 692 yuan / share, until the close of trading on February 11 this year, the stock price of CATL retraced by nearly 30%.

However, from the information point of view, at the end of January, CATL issued a performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit in 2021 will be 14 billion yuan - 16.5 billion yuan, an increase of 150.75% - 195.52% year-on-year. This is the highest net profit level since the listing of CATL in 2018, and it also far exceeds the average market forecast for CATL's 2021 profit of 11.23 billion yuan; of which the net profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to be 6.249 billion yuan - 8.749 billion yuan, equivalent to the net profit of the first three quarters combined, a sharp increase of 91% - 167% from the previous quarter.

The performance is expected to be gratifying, and it has not stopped the downward trend of the stock price of the Ningde era. Bai Yiyang, manager of the research department of CMB International Securities Co., Ltd., said that the stock price and fundamentals of the Catalonia era should be viewed separately. The A-share market has fluctuated since the beginning of the year to the present, especially last year's popular sectors, such as new energy and intelligent vehicles, semiconductors, consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals, military and other sectors have a relatively large correction, behind the main reasons are three aspects, one is that the market is worried about the overall economic recovery under the disturbance of the epidemic, the second is that the market focus shifts to infrastructure, real estate, bank insurance and other stable growth industries, and the third is that investors have insufficient confidence in the short-term market and thus the imbalance between long and short; and Ningde as the leader of the new energy sector. There is some pressure at the trading level.

In addition, Zheng Yi, an analyst at Autohome, believes that the decline in the stock price of the Ningde era is also related to recent rumors. On February 8, the News of CATL's Sanctions by the United States was circulated on the Internet, and then the NINGDE Era denied that "it is false news that our company consulted the US agencies on the Internet about the possibility of being sanctioned."

In addition, there were rumors over the weekend that the Catalonia era and Tesla had collapsed. In addition to clarifying the rumors in the Ningde era, the relevant person in charge of Tesla also responded that it is indeed not true to talk with Tesla.

The industry believes that the business negotiations themselves are highly confidential and that neither company will leak them.

Dragged down by the decline in the stock price of CATL, the ChiNext index fell 5.59% in the first week after the opening of the Tiger Year. The latest data show that the CATL era accounts for 20.06% of the weight of the ChiNext index, so there are rumors that the CATL era has been excluded from the ChiNext weight index. There are views in the industry that the decline of the ChiNext board is the performance of the market segmentation switch, and the high-level stocks and sectors in the market have gradually been replaced by stocks in other sectors with low valuation and more cost-effectiveness, which is also a natural choice for the market to avoid a huge bubble.

More than a thousand institutions bet on treasures, and institutional predictions are divergent

The Ningde era suffered a capital flight. Wind data shows that the stock price of Ningde Times fell by 17.32% in the five trading days after the beginning of the Tiger Year, and the northbound funds continued to reduce their holdings in Ningde Times in the five trading days from February 7 to February 11, with a net selling amount of 1.988 billion yuan. Margin data shows that on February 10, the financing balance of CATL was 7.826 billion yuan, and the financing balance of the past 10 trading days decreased by 431 million yuan.

In addition, on February 10, the market rumored that Gülen's heavy position in the Ningde era of The Sino-European fund products were redeemed by insurance funds and other institutions of 40 billion yuan. It is reported that the Ningde era is the institution's basic top three heavy warehouse varieties.

In fact, since last year, the Ningde era has become a new "group" target for public funds. Wind data shows that as of the end of 2021, a total of 1716 institutions held CATL, holding 262.536 million shares and holding a market value of 154.371 billion yuan; of which 127 public fund companies had 1676 funds holding CATL, holding a total of 260.1782 million shares, accounting for 12.76% of the outstanding shares. The stock market value is 152.985 billion yuan, according to the latest closing price of 489.99 yuan static estimate, the stock market value of 127 fund companies shrank to about 120 billion yuan.

In addition, from the perspective of the number of shares held, the fund companies with more than 10 million shares include Hui Tianfu Fund, Huaxia Fund, Fu Guo Fund, Harvest Fund, Southern Fund and Shanghai Orient Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd., with 22.2967 million shares, 21.7733 million shares, 15.3532 million shares, 13.3414 million shares, 12.2115 million shares and 11.0018 million shares, respectively.

"If you look back, there will still be some pressure on the short-term trading disturbances of the Ningde era." Bai Yiyang said, "However, it is a good layout opportunity for medium- and long-term funds, and it is still recommended that investors pay attention to industry leaders with policy support and technical strength." ”

Based on the market performance of the Ningde era in the first week of the opening of the Year of the Tiger, the market also appeared in the long-short game. Wei Zhichao, chief economist of Capital Securities, issued an analysis of the future rise and fall of the Ningde era from the perspective of short-term market sentiment, which can refer to the stock price trend of Guizhou Moutai in 2021; through fitting, the team judged that the adjustment of the Ningde era may not be over, and there may still be 20% room for decline in the future.

Contrary to the views of Capital Securities, UBS is still optimistic about the fundamentals of the CATL era, believing that its recently updated fundamental data is better than expected, with earnings data in fiscal 2021 30%-40% higher than the market consensus expectations, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in 2022; at the same time, UBS will target the CATL era at 700 yuan.

China Merchants Securities believes that in the global market, the ningde era power battery industry has a solid position, the energy storage field has begun to exert force, is catching up into the leading stage, and has been shaping a large industrial cluster with outstanding global advantages; the Ningde era is in the stage of global expansion, and the future profit margin is still expected to remain stable, maintaining the "highly recommended -A" rating and target price of 680-740 yuan. In this regard, Soochow Securities analysis believes that the Ningde era in high nickel, manganese iron lithium, silicon carbon anode, PET copper foil aluminum foil, etc. are the first to develop and apply, it is expected that the company's technological leadership will be maintained for a long time, the corresponding target price of 905.8 yuan in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.

There are wolves before there are tigers

Shell financial reporters combed the January new energy vehicle sales data released by various car companies to see that the new energy vehicle market continued its growth trend in 2021. In January, BYD sold 93,168 new energy vehicles, an increase of 361% year-on-year. Wei Xiaoli, a new car-making force, also achieved positive year-on-year growth, of which Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile increased by more than 100% year-on-year.

Zhongrong Fund believes that 2022 is a big year for new models of electric vehicles in the world, the trend of electrification is accelerating, global sales are expected to be more than 9 million vehicles, and can still maintain a growth rate of 50% + (not excluding the possibility of exceeding expectations), and from the battery link as a midstream, it is expected that the annual orders of leading enterprises will exceed market expectations.

Bai Yiyang said that the supply and demand relationship of major raw materials will remain tense, and prices will maintain a high level of shock in the first half of the year. Overall, this year's power battery market still maintains a high growth rate, and it is expected that the installed capacity of domestic new energy vehicles will increase by about 65% in 2022.

Although the basic orientation of the Ningde era is good, the industry boom in 2022 is still the same, but the industry believes that there are still hidden worries in the Ningde era. Previously, it was reported that Xiaopeng Automobile would use Sunwoda as a certain version of the Xiaopeng G9 A supply, and also intended to gradually replace the Ningde era with AVIC lithium battery. In response, Xiaopeng Automobile said that it will, as always, choose a strong supplier such as CATL as a core partner.

In Bai Yiyang's view, "After the disturbance of the industrial chain in the past year, some car manufacturers have chosen to open two supplies and three supplies one after another, but it will not affect the industry status of Ningde." ”

While car companies have successively chosen two for three supplies, they have also begun to lay out and develop batteries. Zheng Yi said that in addition to BYD, at present, Great Wall Motors, Geely Automobile, GAC, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, etc. have begun to lay out and develop batteries, and the pressure facing the Future Ningde era may be increasing.

In addition, from the perspective of the external environment, on January 27, LG New Energy, the biggest competitor of catheter times, officially landed on the Korea Stock Exchange. SNE data shows that in 2021, the global installed capacity of CATL will account for 32.6% of the market share, ranking first in the world, and LG New Energy will rank second with a global market share of 20.3%.

Two days before the listing, LG New Energy and General Motors announced a $2.6 billion investment in the United States to establish a third joint venture power battery factory. Up to now, LG New Energy has a production base layout in China, South Korea, the United States, Europe and Indonesia, and according to its planning, the power battery production capacity will reach 43 billion watt-hours in 2025. In contrast, the total production capacity planning of the Ningde era to 2025 is expected to exceed 60 billion watt-hours, but the production capacity of the Ningde era is more concentrated in the domestic market, and it is still in the early stage of layout in overseas markets. With the rapid development of the overseas new energy vehicle market, the industry believes that the advantages of LG new energy will be further highlighted.

The domestic market power battery field track is also becoming increasingly crowded, BYD, AVIC lithium battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, etc. are accelerating the expansion of production, Ewell Lithium energy bet on 4680 battery intention to overtake in the corner, the competition is becoming increasingly fierce, ningde era is also facing pressure and challenges. Zheng Yi believes that for the Ningde era, one is the need to preemptively develop the next generation of batteries, which can achieve greater density, longer endurance, safer and faster charging; the second is to participate in the layout of the upstream and downstream industrial chain.

Beijing News shell financial reporter Wang Linlin Editor Song Yuting Proofreading Chen Diyan