A regulatory signal is sent!
The China Development Network, which is in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission, released news today that recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant parties jointly formed 15 verification working groups to comprehensively carry out special verification of the performance of medium- and long-term coal contracts in 2022, and the scope of verification will be fully covered by all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country. In view of the rapid rise in domestic coal spot and futures prices not long ago, the National Development and Reform Commission has paid great attention to the changes in coal prices, and has held a special meeting to deploy the work of stable coal production and supply during the Spring Festival. At the same time, together with relevant departments, we will further strengthen the supervision and control of market prices, severely crack down on illegal price behavior in the spot and futures markets, and ensure that coal prices operate within a reasonable range.
Affected by this news, the coal sector with a market value of more than one trillion yuan has collectively rushed higher and fell back today. Lu'an Huaneng, China Shenhua, Huaibei Mining, Pingmei shares and other afternoon declines have increased. More worth mentioning is the futures, the main force of thermal coal once rushed 4% higher in the morning, and quickly dived in the afternoon, and the decline expanded to more than 3%. The performance of the main coking coal is similar to that of thermal coal.
The star of today's market is china mobile, driven by funds, the stock today's strong rise and limit, A + H market value also exceeded trillions, the market has also become hot. So, can the rally be sustained?
Coal futures stocks fell in tandem
On February 9, the market performed better, and the three major stock indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen rose throughout the day, with more than 3400 shares floating red, a total of 115 stocks rose and fell, and only 6 fell. The Gem refers to the gradual development of the afternoon, and the transaction volume of the two cities is about 930 billion yuan, and the transaction volume is steadily enlarged.
Another Wind data shows that northbound funds bought a small net purchase of 484 million yuan throughout the day. Although the chinext index rebounded stronger than the Shanghai index during the day, the direction of foreign capital inflows continued the recent trend of shanghai strength and weakness, with a net purchase of 983 million yuan and a net sale of 499 million yuan in Shenzhen stock connect.
Today, there is one plate that has changed significantly, that is, the coal plate. The sector has been performing better before, but today it suddenly has a U-turn, and the coal index has soared and fallen.
Large-cap stocks in the coal sector all rose and fell in the afternoon.
Futures performance is the most obvious, the main coking coal in the afternoon accelerated diving.
Thermal coal once soared 4% in the morning and plunged in a straight line in the afternoon, and the decline expanded to more than 3%.
The National Development and Reform Commission intervened
According to the information released by China Development Network, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, as of January 30, the number of medium- and long-term coal contracts signed in 2022 has increased significantly year-on-year, and most provinces, autonomous regions and cities have achieved full coverage of coal for power generation and heating, and the current platform entry work has been completed.
In order to further strengthen the supervision of the performance of medium- and long-term coal contracts and effectively improve the level of contract performance, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant parties recently jointly formed 15 verification working groups to comprehensively carry out special verification of the signing and performance of medium- and long-term coal contracts in 2022, with the scope of verification full coverage in all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country, focusing on the signing rate of local coal resources and coal for power generation and heating, the quality of contract signing and the fulfillment of contracts, and effectively supervising and urging both the supply and demand sides to strictly sign and perform contracts. Based on the data summary and verification, we will conduct interviews, notification, and accountability for typical cases of breach of contract, so as to enhance the awareness of all parties to perform the contract in good faith, and effectively play the role of medium- and long-term contracts as "stabilizers" for coal supply and prices.
According to the WeChat message of the National Development and Reform Commission, during the Spring Festival holiday, various regions and central enterprises worked hard to stabilize coal production and supply, scientifically arrange production and sales, and the daily output, supply and shipment of coal were higher than the same period of the lunar calendar, which effectively guaranteed the demand for coal for the festival.
Since the third day of the first lunar month, coal production in various regions has rebounded rapidly, and has basically returned to the pre-holiday level, and the coal storage of the national unified dispatch power plant has remained above 165 million tons, an increase of more than 40 million tons over the same period last year. With the acceleration of coal production recovery, the demand for coal in the superimposed heating season has declined, and the ability to guarantee coal supply will be further enhanced.
It is reported that in view of the rapid rise in domestic coal spot and futures prices not long ago, the National Development and Reform Commission has paid great attention to the changes in coal prices, and has held a special meeting to deploy the work of stable coal production and supply during the Spring Festival. At the same time, together with relevant departments, we will further strengthen the supervision and control of market prices, severely crack down on illegal price behavior in the spot and futures markets, and ensure that coal prices operate within a reasonable range.
Ding Hai Shen needle is coming?
Another hot point in the market is China Mobile. The stock was unexpectedly sealed today, with a turnover of 3.3 billion yuan.
So, who is dominating China Mobile's market? Previously, some floating funds had said in the investment circle that they wanted to buy China Mobile. They believe that China Mobile is the first share of the digital economy.
CITIC Securities, a leading domestic securities company, released a research report on February 8, giving the company a target price of 75 yuan per share, compared with today's closing price of 67.43 yuan, there is still 11% room for growth. CICC also gave China Mobile an initial rating of A-shares outperforming the broader market with a target price of 81 yuan.
However, it is worth mentioning that China Mobile is not a constituent stock of the index at present, so his rise has little impact on the essence of the index, but it will create a bullish atmosphere. However, if he continues to run at a high level and waits for him to join the index, if he turns around and goes down in the future, it may be a drag on the index.
Another stock, which can also be said to be a sector, is Moutai and Baijiu. Today, the stock price of Moutai in Guizhou surged 3.1%, the stock that contributed the most to the rise of the Shanghai index, and the liquor index rose 4.62%.
From the perspective of the news, there are two main ones:
First, the price of Moutai wine rose collectively today. From 2019 to 2021, the original box has risen, with an increase of about 70 yuan / bottle. At the same time, in 2020-2022, scattered flying also rose, with an increase of 20-25 yuan / bottle. Previously, there have been reports that there are problems with liquor consumption. There is also a big V finger, and the liquor cycle has undergone a major reversal. This information has led to a lot of liquor killings in recent times.
Second, not long before, the National Development and Reform Commission said that it is necessary to speed up the introduction of a series of policy measures to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand. Focus on releasing consumer demand. Guide enterprises to launch more customized, intelligent and green products. Implement policies and measures to boost bulk consumption such as automobiles and home appliances. Improve the quality of services such as rural tourism, healthy pension, and characteristic homestays, and enrich the supply of peripheral tourism, outings, and ice and snow tourism products. Promote the combination of commodity consumption and service consumption, and expand new types of consumption such as information consumption and green consumption. Accelerate the integration of the county's rural e-commerce system and express logistics distribution system.
If liquor can be stabilized, the problem at the index level can basically be solved. But whether baijiu is really stable may need further observation.