01 Putin shows muscle
The mess in Ukraine is still fermenting.
But what happened interestingly during the fermentation process was that the world was pretending to sympathize with Ukraine. Macron's visit to Russia and Ukraine is a typical example.
According to the New York Times, since the situation in Ukraine deteriorated in December last year, Macron and Putin have often cooked porridge on the phone, and the frequency of contact has increased significantly.
On February 7, Macron simply ran to Russia, and the two sat at the same long table and talked face to face for five hours. The topic, of course, is how to care about Ukraine.
After the conversation, the two sides held a press conference to talk about the experience of the two sides concerned about Ukraine.
Asked a question to a French reporter, Putin said:
"You want France and Russia to go to war?"
"If Ukraine is accepted to join NATO and tries to 'reintegrate' Crimea's 'national policy' by force, that's what's going to happen."
"You ask me if Russia wants to go to war with NATO, and I ask you, does NATO want to go to war with Russia?"
Putin's words are very offensive, and they have a distinct fighting national character. Friends may wonder why NATO is at war with Russia if it cares about Ukraine.
Putin warned that once Ukraine joins NATO and decides to use military means to "take back" Crimea, then the whole of Europe will be involved in the war with Russia. According to NATO Article 5 (once it is confirmed that a member state has been attacked, other member states will be involved). NATO members, with the exception of the United States and Canada, are in Europe.
Because those countries in Europe are very rich, they are basically reluctant to fight for Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, Putin's warning is still very marketable in Europe. And Putin knows how to show off his muscles, and at the right time he takes out a nuclear stick and swings it.
"Russia is one of the world's leading nuclear powers, and there is no winner."
"[Macron] doesn't want that to happen, and I don't want that."
In the end, Putin gave Macron a face, saying that his trip was of positive significance, that Russia would do its utmost to find a compromise solution suitable for everyone, and hoped that he would go to Ukraine and have a good talk with Comrade Zelensky.
02 The World of Actors
On February 8, Macron arrived in Kiev.
This is the first visit by a French head of state to Ukraine in 24 years.
Compared to the tense atmosphere of the No. 7 in Moscow, Macron is much more relaxed in Kiev.
Zelenskiy, a comedian by training, personally went out to greet Macron, and the two shook hands and took photos, which seemed very intimate; the atmosphere of the meeting was also very harmonious.
After the talks, as usual, there was a press conference.
Macron said that both Russia and Ukraine agreed to implement the "New Minsk Agreement" reached by France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine on the situation in Eastern Ukraine, which has laid a good foundation for dialogue.
"This shared commitment is the only way for us to reach peace and find a sustainable political solution." We hope that in the coming weeks and months, new mechanisms and new agreements will stabilize the situation and cool down sustainably. ”
Zelenskiy also said that he hopes to carry out the "Normandy model" quadripartite talks with France, Germany and Russia.
Since everyone has expressed negotiations, it seems that it will be easier to deal with. After all, the New Minsk Accords have a broad international base (and China supports them).
Why do you say everyone is acting?
Since February 10th:
The Ukrainian defense minister said that the Ukrainian army will conduct exercises on the 10th, and the main training items include the use of the latest anti-tank weapons provided by the United Kingdom and the United States and armed drones provided by Turkey.
These weapons are provided by NATO. Russia opposes NATO's support for Ukraine.
Russia has also previously announced that it will launch a week-long joint military exercise in the border area with Ukraine and Belarus from the 10th.
- Deterrence is self-evident.
03 The so-called agreement
Friends may wonder why the New Minsk Agreement, which has a broad international base, cannot be properly negotiated.
The agreement was signed in 2015 and the main contents are as follows:
1. A full ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine, with the withdrawal of all heavy weapons and the same distance to create a military buffer zone of at least 50 km (31 mi).
2. On the basis of Ukrainian law and Ukrainian legislation, a dialogue on the modalities of local elections is held to discuss "Interim Decrees on Local Government Autonomy of Individual Regions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", on which these regions decide the future in accordance with the above-mentioned laws.
3. Ukraine promulgates laws prohibiting and prosecuting the punishment of those involved; pardons and amnesties for separatists in East Ukraine.
4. Provide a safe area to facilitate the import and distribution of international humanitarian and relief materials.
(5) Withdraw all foreign armed formations, military equipment and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE and disarm all illegal groups.
This version of the New Minsk Accords is still good. The reason why the talks cannot be continued is also very simple, this is the result of the quadripartite talks between Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France, without the United States.
And the United States is the boss of NATO and the leader of the situation in Ukraine. This version of the agreement without the participation of the United States, no matter how broad the basis it has internationally, is doomed to be unenforceable. Because the United States has been hyping up Russia's intention to invade Ukraine.
The United States does this as if it is thinking about Ukraine's security, but in fact it wants to use Ukraine for two purposes.
The first purpose is to consume Russia.
The only people in today's global village that can threaten the United States at the strategic level are Russia and China. If the US strategy shrinks, then China and Russia will accelerate their strategic radiation to the outside world.
If the United States wants to hold on to the European fundamentals, it must continue to deplete Russia. Of all the options that can consume Russia, using Ukraine is one of the best ways.
The second purpose is to suck blood in Europe.
The United States is now heavily indebted. The most direct and effective way to resolve the debt crisis is to drive the wealth of East Asia and Europe to North America. How can this be achieved? The most direct way is to create unrest.
As you can see, the turmoil in the global village in recent years has basically been around Russia and China. So from the perspective of the United States, it does not matter whether Ukraine joins NATO, it is not very important to what extent Russia intervenes in Ukraine, and the chaos in Europe is the most important.
From this point of view, the United States hypes Russia's invasion of Ukraine, not really to calm the situation in Ukraine, but to hope that Ukraine will be more chaotic.
Germany and France also saw the purpose of the United States clearly, so they pulled Russia and Ukraine to engage in the "New Minsk Agreement" in an attempt to stabilize the situation in Europe. Including Macron's impatient trip to Russia and Ukraine this time, this is also the purpose.
So the United States, France and Germany, are pretending to sympathize with Ukraine.
So since the negotiation can't be negotiated, why does Macron have to run back and forth?
04 Jianghu Little Horse Brother
As a young and strong faction in the political arena, Macron is eager to do something; however, France's comprehensive strength is there, and many things cannot play a decisive role.
Macron has been running all the way, even if it cannot solve the problem of Eastern Ukraine, at least it has an effect, that is, the two sides are temporarily willing to dialogue and negotiate.
Before Ukraine wanted to talk with Russia, Russia did not agree, saying that Ukraine should go to the two republics of Donetsk and Luhansk to talk. Russia's proposal is actually very insidious, and Donetsk and Luhansk were originally two ukrainian states that declared their independence.
If Ukraine were to talk to both, it would be tantamount to acknowledging the fact of their independence. Ukrainian politicians suck, but they don't suck to the point of being brainless.
Russia's appetite is even greater, and it originally wanted to talk directly with the United States about European security issues.
During the Cold War era, the United States and the Soviet Union often came together to discuss European security issues.
Now Russia is asking the United States to talk directly about European security, or to put itself in the position of the former Soviet Union.
The United States said that Europe's security must involve European allies and is unwilling to talk directly with Russia. Essentially, the United States does not think that Russia has the power and status of the former Soviet Union.
In this case, Macron sees the opportunity to mediate, which is also an opportunity to brush up on the sense of existence.
Is Macron really just content with brushing up on presence? Not quite.
France and Germany, representing old Europe, have always wanted to recreate their former glory. The key step to that end is to promote confrontation between the United States and China and Russia.
The United States and Russia are certainly not fools.
The United States has always wanted to push for confrontation between Europe and Russia.
Russia wants to get along with Europe and get rid of the Crimea it swallows.
If the United States is pushed too hard, Europe also has a model for solving the Ukrainian problem, that is, to refer to Finland and let it join the European Union instead of NATO.
By joining the Eu, Ukraine can reap economic rewards.
Not joining NATO satisfies Russia's demands for a strategic security zone.
In this way, the Ukrainian problem can also be temporarily calmed. Of course, there is a thorn between Russia and Ukraine, which is Crimea.
Ukraine wants to take back Crimea, and Russia is reluctant to spit it out. In fact, this contradiction can refer to the wisdom of the eastern powers, choose to "shelve the controversy and jointly develop" and temporarily hang up the problem.
Of course, if Russia, France, and Germany can really solve the Ukrainian problem, it means that the United States will experience a great recession. Until that situation came, the world's sympathy for Ukraine was fake.