The performance of the huge loss of more than a billion, but against the trend of the surge, some people say that it has no future, some people say that it is the next Ningde era? Where is its future?
On January 29, The 2021 annual performance forecast of Fu Neng Technology was announced: it is expected that the net profit attributable to the mother in 2021 will be -800 million yuan to -1100 million yuan, and the loss will increase by 141.69% to 232.32% year-on-year; the deducted non-net profit will be -1100 million yuan to -1400 million yuan, and the loss will increase by 102.80% to 158.11% year-on-year.
As soon as the performance forecast came out, there was an uproar on the Internet, and they were all marveling: How did they lose so much? The opening is definitely going to be finished, and then there are all kinds of insults.
We now know that the opening did not kill, but in the case of the ChiNext collective, especially the new energy collective, for 2 days, it performed very firmly.
Why is it that instead of killing, it is stronger?
How should we view this performance forecast of Fu Neng Technology?
It should be said that the loss of 21 years has indeed exceeded expectations, but it is definitely not what many people think, and the loss margin is much higher than expected.
Many people think that the loss margin is much more than expected, is to the annual performance forecast of the brokerage as the criterion, before there were 6 brokers on its 21 years of performance made a forecast, the average value is a loss of 414 million, but this forecast has actually been falsified by the three quarterly reports, because the three quarterly reports have lost 420 million, deducting 654 million.
Sure enough, the predictions are not reliable.......
So the current situation is how to calculate its 21-year loss, if you take a middle value, that is, a loss of 950 million, deducting 1.25 billion. The net profit loss range is good, and the deduction range is indeed larger, but it is not as tragic as many people say.
Of course, it depends on which one the actual data is.
The reason for the huge loss of 21 years
Why did the new energy automobile industry lose so much money last year when it was hot? The company explains this:
1. The price of the company's products is low. The main reasons include, first, the average market price of the power battery industry has shown an overall downward trend in the past few years; second, when the company negotiates pricing with customers, it usually refers to the cost factors such as the raw material market situation and trend at that time, and the company has a lower pricing price when negotiating with customers in 2020; third, the company cooperates in depth at a more favorable price in order to maintain a good customer relationship.
2. The price of the company's main raw materials increased. In 2021, the company's main raw materials cathode materials, anode materials, electrolytes and other prices have risen to varying degrees, increasing the cost of product materials and dragging down the company's performance this year.
3. Fixed assets have increased, and the scale effect has not yet fully emerged. In 2021, the company's Zhenjiang Phase I and Phase II factories have been converted into fixed assets and put into use, the investment amount of new production line equipment is large, resulting in a large depreciation increase, and due to capacity climbing and other reasons, the production capacity has not been fully released, and the scale effect has not yet fully emerged.
4. Provision for impairment losses on assets. It is mainly due to the provision for credit impairment losses of receivables and the generation of more defective products due to the ramp-up of production capacity, as well as the provision for inventory price declines for sluggish products.
5. Increased amortization of equity incentive expenses. During the year, the Company implemented the 2021 Restricted Stock Incentive Plan to further develop and attract talent, and the implementation of the plan brought about an increase in the Company's related costs.
6. Increase in R&D investment. In order to maintain the industry's leading level, the company continued to invest in research and development in solid-state batteries, thermal runaway management and other fields this year.
It should be said that the situation is basically reliable, just on the research and development investment, as of the third quarter of last year, it has smashed nearly 400 million, the research and development rate is nearly 20%, which is a very crazy research and development investment.
But Fu Neng does not smash research and development, itself lags behind the industry giants, plus the soft pack battery is not the mainstream technology in China, before it has also been exposed to product problems, so desperately make up for the technical shortcomings is deserved.
So how should we view Fu Neng Technology?
In fact, the logic of Fu Neng Technology has not changed, before we covered it, we said its logic: in 2022, the european traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers to force the situation of new energy vehicles, especially to pay attention to the models launched by these traditional host manufacturers, is not equipped with soft pack batteries, before the European traditional manufacturers of soft pack batteries.
If this logic cannot be fulfilled, then it has no chance, at least not for a year; if it is fulfilled, the opportunity is relatively large, after all, it is the title of the domestic pure soft pack battery leader.
According to the company's previously disclosed record of investor relations: the company has sufficient orders in hand in 2022, about 14.8GWh. At the same time, the company's Zhenjiang phase I production capacity climb has been basically completed, Zhenjiang Phase II production capacity is expected to reach the expected level in the third and fourth quarters of 2022, the annual effective production capacity of about 13G. Compared with 2021, the performance will be greatly improved.
Therefore, Fu Neng Technology is still worth looking forward to, after all, it is only February now, and it is not possible to look at the future with last year's performance.
Tough small and medium-sized battery manufacturers
Although it is impossible to look at the future of Funeng Technology with last year's performance, its 21-year performance forecast is still full of emotions, compared with the previous Ningde times announcement last year's large-scale profit of 140 to 16 billion yuan of unexpected data, the huge gap, the impact on people is still extremely strong.
What is the industry leader to support the death, the little brothers starved to death, that is, the lithium battery industry strong Hengqiang situation, reflected vividly.
As Leo often said before: unless there is a top industrial field such as high-end chips and internal combustion engines, the technical content of most industries is not very high, and for most industries, the biggest barrier is the barrier to scale.
The larger the scale, the more obvious the cost advantage, when the industry is hot, control the biggest right to speak, when the industry is cold, you can also survive competitors, and eventually the competitiveness is getting stronger and stronger.
The Ningde era is relying on the huge scale advantage, in the case of the shortage of lithium batteries last year, for the downstream vehicle manufacturers formed a strong bargaining power.
Battery manufacturers with relatively small volumes like Fu Neng Technology have had a very difficult time, and they have no say in the upstream and downstream, on the contrary, they can only squeeze the upstream and downstream, and finally bear the pressure of the upstream price increase cost alone.
In fact, this is also the common fate of the vast majority of the industry's midstream, if you can not rely on the scale advantage to control the right to speak in the industry, you will lose the pricing power and become the one who is squeezed.
Success or failure is unknown
The choice of soft pack power battery this route, to some extent, can be said to be a huge strategic mistake, after all, the domestic lithium battery technology to square battery as the main route, soft pack battery volume is too small.
But we can say: square batteries must be the future trend? Is Fu Neng Technology doomed to have no future? Is choosing a soft pack battery route necessarily a strategic mistake?
Certainly not so, on the one hand, the power battery technology is still developing rapidly, the final technical route of the battery is still far from being determined, and it is still too early to say which technical route is the ultimate route.
In addition, you can also change your mind to look at the soft pack battery: the performance of the Ningde era beyond expectations is precisely to illustrate the advantages of the industry leader, if you take the exact same technical route as Ningde, the follow-up will face the strong competition of Ning wang, unless its own strength is strong enough, otherwise there may not be a better way to live for a long time, on the contrary, take a different route, there may be a little way to live.
Does Fu Neng Technology have the opportunity to enjoy the opportunities brought about by the explosion of the industry?
Naturally, there is an opportunity, European manufacturers have a relatively high acceptance of soft pack power batteries, and they have not really fully promoted new energy vehicles.
It can be said that the future of Fu Neng Technology is still worth looking forward to, but for it, the further it goes, the more unfavorable the time.
As for those who say that it will be the next Ningde era, of course, can not deny that there is this possibility, but at present, the distance is still very far away, first catch up with the Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei lithium energy and other waist battery companies to say it, rice bite bite to eat, the road to step by step, step by step, step by step, but don't pull that...
Learn From Zero Value Investment ¥13.99 Buy