On 9 February 2022, Hong Kong added more than 1,160 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and about 800 initially positive cases, setting a new single-day high.
While everyone was still immersed in the joy of celebrating the Spring Festival, Hong Kong ushered in the peak of the epidemic in two years. On the fifth and sixth day of the Lunar New Year (February 5 and 6), Hong Kong added more than 300 new cases for two consecutive days. The epidemic has not yet peaked, but has become more and more intense.
On the 7th (the seventh day of the Chinese New Year), on the first day of work, there were 614 cases; on the 8th, 625 cases; on the 9th, 1160 cases. Hong Kong's new confirmed cases in a single day directly exceeded 1,000! Carrie Lam, the chief executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, said that "this is a thrilling number".
Hong Kong epidemic trend chart (Source: Worldometers)
"The epidemic is very worrying and dangerous." On 8 February, Hong Kong Commissioner of Health, Mr Lam Man Kin, said, "A total of 2,628 confirmed cases have been recorded in the past two weeks, with a cumulative total of 898 cases of unknown origin, 85% of which are of Omicron variant virus and 5.8% of which are involved with Delta variant virus. ”
Lin Wenjian (Source: Orange News)
The fact that one-third to half of the cases are of unknown origin is a more worrying point. Coinciding with the Spring Festival, the new crown virus has an opportunity to take advantage of it, and gathering activities such as flower market shopping, restaurant Chinese New Year's Eve meals, and family reunions have all become the "petri dishes" of the virus. From the beginning of the epidemic to the 8th, there have been 19 large-scale transmission chains with more than 10 confirmed cases, covering Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, the New Territories and other places.
To what extent are there many cases? When Zhang Zhujun, director of the Hong Kong Government Department of Health and the Director of the Health Protection Center, introduced the cases, there was no way to introduce them one by one, and could only be summarized in a simple sentence: "I can't count how many, anyway, many!" ”
As of yesterday, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Hong Kong is nearly 4,000. Hong Kong respiratory specialist Leung Tzu-chiu predicted in an interview that "according to the current trend of the epidemic, it is expected that the number of new cases in a single day in two weeks may exceed 10,000." The addition of 10,000 cases in a single day is not only "thrilling", but also "soul-scattering".
Hong Kong respiratory specialist Leung Tze Chi-chiu (Source: Orange News)
If it is understandable that "because the new crown virus has spread in the community for at least 5 generations, it is difficult to understand everyone's flow", then the source of the current round of the epidemic in Hong Kong should always be clear, right?
On February 4, Nature wrote an article on the source of the epidemic in Hong Kong, titled "How Sneezing Hamsters Triggered the Covid-19 Epidemic in Hong Kong".
How sneezing hamsters triggered the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong (Source: Nature)
On January 15, a 23-year-old pet shop worker in Hong Kong was diagnosed with Delta. On January 18, Hong Kong's Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department announced that it would kill more than 2,000 hamsters. The reason is that the pet hamster imported from the store brought the Delta virus from the Netherlands into Hong Kong, triggering a local epidemic that had infected about 50 people as of the 4th.
Since last October, the Delta epidemic in Hong Kong has cleared the social surface, and the sudden community cases are really strange. The outbreak first began in pet stores, and the first confirmed infected people were staff and visitors in the store, so the epidemic prevention personnel turned their attention to the small animals.
Hong Kong public health officials swab more than 100 animals in pet stores found that 15 of the 28 Syrian hamsters tested carried CORONAVIRUS RNA or antibodies, while rabbits, guinea pigs, totorocats and mice did not carry the virus.
Epidemic prevention personnel kill hamsters in pet stores (Source: Nature)
Hamsters are currently known to be able to infect humans (the first is mink, but Nature doesn't mention bats). The team believes that pet hamsters may have first contracted the new coronavirus in November, spreading among animals without being detected. When did the hamsters arrive at the pet store? Why have I not been infected with humans before? We have no way of knowing.
Three weeks after more than 2,000 hamsters were killed, a new wave of more violent outbreaks broke out in Hong Kong, with 85% of which were Omilon infections and only 5.8% of Delta. The Delta outbreak brought by hamsters is only a small part, and finding the source of the Omicron mutation is the crux of the matter.
The first case of Aumi kerong infection detected in the Hong Kong community was at the end of 2021, when two Cathay Pacific air crew members who flew from the United States to Hong Kong did not strictly comply with the epidemic prevention measures, resulting in the spread of Themi kerong in the community. For the average person, the requirement for entering Hong Kong is for the hotel to quarantine for 21 days, but the regulation for the crew is "allowed to quarantine at home". However, during the period of home isolation, two crew members, one to eat at a restaurant and one to dance in the park, were later tested positive for COVID-19 and introduced Omiljung into Hong Kong.
Whether the current round of the epidemic is a chain of transmission by former Cathay Pacific employees is unclear, and the Omilon chain is afraid of becoming a headless epidemic. And the hamster has become the "pot of choice" of the Delta chain, and "animal-to-human" has a bigger coffee position than "human-to-human"?
Hong Kong's circulation road seems to be "difficult to move forward", and the top priority is to quickly control the epidemic. In the face of the menacing epidemic, "one country, two systems" Hong Kong still adheres to the same "dynamic zero clearance" policy as the mainland. Carrie Lam said that "dynamic zeroing" may be costly, but it will keep Hong Kong's healthcare system from collapsing, which is most in line with Hong Kong's actual situation.
The real situation is that it is difficult for Hong Kong to replicate the mainland's epidemic prevention measures. The source of the epidemic has not been found in about two weeks; the daily nucleic acid test volume has only reached 100,000 times, and in high-density areas with a population of nearly 7.5 million, such testing levels are far from catching up with the growth rate of the epidemic; and whether the people of Hong Kong, who advocate freedom and democracy, will strictly abide by the epidemic prevention measures proposed by the government is also unknown.
Carrie Lam, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, met with the media on the afternoon of the 8th (Source: Zhi News)
On the 6th, the Secretary for Food and Health of the Hong Kong SAR Government, Chan Siu-chiu, said in an interview that it is expected that the "Ju'an Anti-epidemic" plan will be launched this week, and those who need to be isolated now will be arranged to be isolated at home in the future; close contacts will be quarantined at home for 14 days according to the situation. If the epidemic continues to worsen, the Hong Kong government will use community isolation facilities to concentrate on patients who are more in need of isolation care, and those who are generally asymptomatic or mild and at low risk will be placed in home isolation.
Can isolation measures and medical services keep up with demand? Without regulation, who can guarantee that people in home isolation are "completely at home" and that there will be no situation similar to cathay Pacific's crew? Under what circumstances can an asymptomatic or mildly infected person be released from home isolation? We have not found answers to these questions.
The good news is that there are already mainland medical staff rushing to Hong Kong to assist in local nucleic acid testing. At the same time, the government plans to provide rapid antibody test kits to all 7.5 million Hong Kong people.
With the sharp rise in the number of confirmed cases, customs clearance between Hong Kong and the mainland has become increasingly out of reach, and 92% of Hong Kong's vegetable supply comes from the mainland. Due to the need for epidemic prevention, many trucks transporting vegetables are trapped in Shenzhen. Affected by this, Shanghai Qing, which originally sold 14 Hong Kong dollars, rose to 24 Hong Kong dollars, and broccoli and bean seedlings rose to 38 and 100 Hong Kong dollars a catty respectively, which is more than twice the usual. Even if the price of vegetables rises by more than 100%, vegetables in many places are still sold out.
Post-epidemic food prices in Hong Kong (Source: CC Intelligence Bureau)
"The epidemic prevention measures are so hesitant, and it is certainly not right for some places in the mainland to increase the number of layers, but it is not resolute in key measures like Hong Kong, and this is the result." Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, said this when commenting on the epidemic in Hong Kong.
Resources:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00322-0
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/fW0xaNUSyXC0TnT3blsp3Q
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8H8REcXIJDXKYCCjHDumFw