(Report Producer/Author: Minsheng Securities, Ma Tianyi)
01. Beginnings: What is the Metacosm?
How is the metacosmity defined? — The two great essences of the metacosm
(1) Reconstructs the dimension of human sensory experience
The essence of the metaverse: digital human sensory experience - not only visual, auditory, but also including touch, taste, smell, etc.; and act on the three dimensions of human beings - time, space, experience. As depicted in the movies The Matrix and Inception, the core logic of the metaverse is to digitize all the senses such as eyes, ears, nose, tongue, body, etc. in our bodies, so that the sensory experience in the virtual world is almost indistinguishable from the real world.
(2) Reconstructed the generation and driving mode of interactive content/objects
In the traditional Internet, the interactive content/objects are basically designed and rendered by real people (software engineers, creators, etc.), but in the metaverse era, AI-generated content is a major new production factor under the concept of metaverse, and AI will exist in large quantities in all aspects of supply and demand.
Industrial perspective: The metacosm symbolizes a new generation of digital economy
Digitalization is the main driving force for future economic growth: according to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the scale of the mainland's digital economy will reach 39.2 trillion yuan in 2020, accounting for 38.6% of GDP, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, and its contribution to the economy will be further strengthened. At the same time, in 2020, the penetration rate of the digital economy in agriculture, industry and service industry was 8.9%, 21.0% and 40.7% respectively, an increase of 0.7, 1.5 and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, and the industrial digital economy is still developing continuously. With the sustained and stable recovery of the mainland economy in the late stage of the epidemic, the digital economy will continue to develop well, and digitalization will penetrate into a wider range and deeper level, and the penetration rate will have a larger room for improvement.
Why is digitalization needed? — The basic problems faced by traditional enterprises
The high cost of "survival" is the key to affecting the economic efficiency of Chinese entities; on the other hand, the internal vortex of "competition" is also more likely to trigger a price war in the market and the rise in customer promotion/maintenance costs. The sales growth of real economy enterprises has encountered a "bottleneck", taking automobile manufacturing, textile and clothing, general equipment manufacturing industry as an example, revenue growth has slowed down, and even negative growth has occurred. (Source: Future Think Tank)
The development of cloud computing has added new vitality to the digitalization of enterprises
Online - let the business of real economy enterprises go online; networking - let real economy enterprises reach more potential opportunities through online channels, form a huge symbiotic network; intelligent - when the network collaboration based on online and offline integration is formed, a large number of data interaction and precipitation are formed, and through effective data value exploration, feed back the entire collaboration network.
Digitalization + cloud migration helps enterprises transform data resources into data assets
The chimney system construction method of real economy enterprises brings about the phenomenon of duplication of resource investment and data islands, which makes it difficult to systematize and centralize the data generated to form data assets, and then make the accumulated data assets drive the business itself more out of reach. Connect the whole service link based on the data, realize the current situation of each business link, online and offline business can be perceived and traceable, and make judgments on the possibility of business development trend based on the depth of data processing and mining capabilities.
Digitalization + cloud migration breaks the confinement of the "Hu Huanyong Line"
The development of digital technology and capabilities represented by cloud computing makes it possible to develop the economy and production across the restrictions of geographical conditions, resource distribution and other factors, provide more fair development opportunities and dividend sharing, and make technology and services deeper and farther and more fairly reached. Based on the trend of enterprises in the real economy going to the cloud, it can be found that while driving the development of their own business, the cloud also promotes the development momentum of western China with its unique advantages to gain more long-term significance.
How to understand the digital economy?
The "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Digital Economy" points out that the digital economy takes data assets as the key element, the modern information network as the main carrier, and the integrated application of information and communication technology and the digital transformation of comprehensive elements as an important driving force to promote a new economic form with more unified fairness and efficiency.
02. How to lay out the metacosm between the Chinese and American giants
What is the difference in the development path of the Chinese dollar universe?
Regulatory Environment: China views caution; the United States encourages investment in parallel with active regulation
China: Take caution. In the digital economy, rulemaking can lead to a battle for dominance. At the national level, rules are a means for countries to guide the development direction of the digital market to maximize the value of data. At the level of science and technology enterprises, the rules are mainly led by large companies and standards organizations. The regulation of metacosmities and digital currencies is different between China and the United States.
UNITED STATES: Bottom-up investment is encouraged in parallel with active regulation. The United States took the lead in introducing the metacosmonic concept, embracing innovation while actively focusing on data security and cryptocurrency regulation. The implementation of licensed management of the encrypted currency varies from state to state, but the framework has been gradually improved and the enforceability is strong, which has effectively curbed the chaos that appeared in the initial block chain and digital currency field.
Technical reserves: China's infrastructure is complete and has great potential; technology is leading, and the underlying technology layout of the United States is deepening
China: Complete infrastructure and great market potential. The metacosm concept has arisen since the United States. With the advantages of Tencent, Byte, Ali and other giants integrating business, it has been rapidly laid out. At present, the overall continent is still in a situation of following and catching up in terms of underlying technology. However, thanks to the strong infrastructure capacity, the advantage of population size and the big data behind it, there is great potential.
United States: Meta-universe pioneer, leading underlying technology, comprehensive industrial layout. The United States has benefited from years of accumulation and layout in the field of technology, such as cloud computing, XR, AI, and development engines, which have initially formed certain technical barriers in terms of metaverse infrastructure and platforms, and have played a leading role in many fields of the global metaverse industry.
Infrastructure: China's communications lead, and the US cloud computing still occupies a major position
China: The communication network surpasses that of the United States, and the rapid landing and promotion of 5G. On the one hand, Huawei has the technical ability to define 5G standards. On the other hand, strong infrastructure capabilities have enabled 5G to be rolled out. Cloud computing is growing rapidly, and Alibaba Cloud is already the fifth in the world, with a market share of 3.7%.
The United States: The cloud computing field dominates, and the CR3 composed of Amazon, Microsoft, and Google accounts for 60%.
Hardware imports: China is still catching up in VR/AR shipments and key technologies
China: In terms of VR/AR shipments, key technologies such as perception interaction, rendering computing, content production and distribution, and scene applications are still catching up. Pico accounts for 4% of VR/AR headset shipments, lower than Oculus.
United States: American companies entered AR/VR earlier, starting the layout in advance, and the first-mover advantage was obvious. Shipments of 1Q210culus have accounted for 75% of global VR/AR shipments, doubling their year-on-year market share.
Artificial intelligence: China is leading in the accumulation of big data and computing power, and the United States has obvious advantages in the field of AI chips
China: The development time of the basic layer is relatively short, and it needs to be improved in algorithm theory and platform development. However, Chinese has a large base, has a natural advantage in the accumulation of big data, and is relatively leading in comprehensive computing power. With the emergence of Huawei's "domestic light" such as HiSilicon, Horizon, and Cambrian, mainland artificial intelligence has shown a good development trend of rapid catch-up.
The United States: The AI technology ecosystem tends to be built and formed, leading China in the fields of chips and computing power, deep learning frameworks and so on. Science and technology giants such as Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft have laid out vigorously.
Development tools: Chinese games are product-oriented, video development tools are abundant, and the professional development capabilities of American game engines are leading.
China: Games are mostly product-oriented, and engine development is mostly self-developed engines, rather than commercial. However, China's game market has the advantages of user base, rich content, and a wide range of overseas engine technology investment. In addition, China is leading the way at the level of the UGC community.
USA: Specialized development engines have developed in game engines such as Unreal and Unity, as well as R o b l o x for one gamer. The Omniverse in the Material Language Dyeing Aspect N v i d i A is a leader.
03. Kai Cheng: Why metaverse?
The mobile Internet has developed rapidly for nearly 20 years and entered the era of large cycles
The development of the traditional Internet can be divided into two major stages: the PC Internet stage (1969-2008) and the mobile Internet stage (2008-present). The advent of the Internet changed the entire world.
So far, the development of the Internet has encountered three major dilemmas: market space: traffic growth space has almost peaked, traffic dividends have gradually disappeared; content: content is single, user experience is monotonous, and the distance between people and people is still very far; policy: the anti-monopoly wave has been set off, pointing to the Internet giant. (Source: Future Think Tank)
The traffic growth space has almost peaked, and the traffic dividend has gradually disappeared
Internet traffic growth space has almost peaked, and the traffic dividend has gradually disappeared: As of June 2021, the scale of mainland Internet users reached 1.011 billion, and the Internet penetration rate reached 71.6%. As of June 2021, the number of mobile phone netizens in the mainland reached 1.007 billion, and the proportion of netizens using mobile phones to access the Internet was 99.6%. In 2021Q2, the average daily use time of China Mobile Internet users is 5.8 hours, and the ceiling of 6 hours has not been broken.
The user penetration rate of China's Internet giants has basically peaked, and the ceiling has emerged: as of 2021Q2, the BAT penetration rate has exceeded 80%, and the user penetration rate of Tencent and Ali has reached 96.2% and 92.7% respectively. Toutiao successfully broke through with short video products and ranked among the giants, with a penetration rate of 63.1%. From the content side, multiple subdivided tracks have entered the stage of existing users: the user penetration rate of mobile games, mobile videos and mobile music has exceeded 60%.
The anti-monopoly wave has set off, driving innovation by Internet giants
Since the end of 2020, a new round of anti-monopoly wave has been set off in the world, international and domestic legislation has been accelerated, and the supervision of scientific and technological platforms has been strengthened; the anti-monopoly policy against the traditional business of Internet giants has forced Internet companies to subvert innovation and find new growth points.
What the metacosm can do: Under the digital economy, the metacosm will generate new employment opportunities in all aspects
The metacosm involves a wide range of fields, complex technologies, and a large range of industrial chains. Some manufacturers choose to play a professional advantage in their own fields, and manufacturers with better capabilities try to break down barriers and take into account the development of the middle and upstream. Major manufacturers have entered the market, creating diversified employment opportunities for the market.
The research and development and manufacturing of hardware equipment and the provision of high-quality content on the software side will become the key points of future competition in the meta-universe. Hardware and software support each other and complement each other, building a profitable foundation for future manufacturers and putting forward higher requirements for practitioners.
Under the digital economy, diversified employment opportunities are created
The implementation of the metacosm as a new digital foundation in the future requires large-scale "digital infrastructure". The breakthrough of the metaverse must develop key core technologies such as XR technology and brain-computer interfaces, digital twins and virtual people, and blockchain.
With the development of the metaverse, "new infrastructure" talents such as 5G, communications, and underlying architecture will usher in another wave of rapid demand growth. The core technical talent gap of mainland new infrastructure will reach 4.17 million by the end of 2020. Among them, in terms of cloud computing talents, the demand for first-tier cities is the most obvious. Beijing's cloud computing talent gap is nearly 120,000 people, followed by Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, which exceeded 90,000, 70,000 and 60,000 respectively. It is expected that in the next five years, the mainland cloud computing industry will face the talent demand of 1.5 million people.
04. Transition: What is needed for the development of the metacosm
As a new type of efficiency tool, the metacosm requires strong underlying technical support
The meta-universe industry chain can be divided into three parts: underlying equipment, front-end equipment, and scene content entrance. Among them, the underlying equipment includes servers, routers, switching machines, etc.; the front-end device platform includes VR/AR, 3D rendering tools, etc., and the scene content entrance covers many fields such as games, social networking, shopping, and cinema.
Look at the underlying elements of the metaverse from the way data flows
From the perspective of data flow: edge computing, communications, cloud computing, analog chips, GPUs, data center servers, blockchain, AI, 3D dyeing, virtual people, VR/AR are the core links of content collection, transmission and presentation in the metaverse. Network security and data copyright escort the metaverse from the two dimensions of "tangible" and "intangible" respectively.
High-speed network: the "pulse" of the metaverse High bandwidth, low latency, and wide connection provide guarantees
Accelerate the large-scale deployment of 5G networks; policy sets the quantitative targets of base stations, and operators invest in an orderly manner. The "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Digital Economy" proposes to build an intelligent and comprehensive digital information infrastructure with high-speed ubiquitous, integrated heaven and earth, cloud-network integration, intelligent and agile, green and low-carbon, safe and controllable, focusing on the construction of optical fiber networks, 5G networks, IPv6, and spatial information infrastructure. Achieve in-depth coverage of 5G networks in typical areas such as industry, power grids, and ports, and boost industry integration and application. In 2021, the number of new 5G base stations added by the mainland will reach 654,000, and the cumulative number of completed and opened will reach 1.425 million. According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" by 2025, the number of 5G base stations per 10,000 people will reach 26 (the minimum target), if calculated by 1.4 billion people, the number of 5G base stations in 25 years will reach 3.64 million, and it is expected that by the end of 22 years, the cumulative construction of base stations will exceed 2 million.
Edge Cloud Computing: The "Network" of the Metacosm - The "Small Universe" of The Future Family-Level Computing Power
Edge computing in the era of massive data has brought a new round of computing storms. The annual data generated globally will grow from 33 ZB in 2018 to 175 ZB in 2025. The traditional "data center - content distribution - mobile phone / PC" model can no longer meet the needs of cloud computing + Internet of Things era increasing massive data storage, computing and interaction needs. In order to improve the timeliness and effectiveness of data processing, edge computing came into being. Edge computing technology has developed steadily and has now entered the stage of industry landing. According to CCID data, in 2020, the size of China's edge computing market reached 19.94 billion yuan, an increase of 62.2% year-on-year; In 2021, the scale of China's edge computing market is expected to reach 32.53 billion yuan, an increase of 63.1% year-on-year.
Cloud computing: The "spirit" of the metaverse - computing, storage, networking is the basic technology of cloud computing
Computing, storage, and networking build the foundation of cloud computing, and the linkage of three types of services is the foundation of upper-level applications and business operations. Among them, the core of the three parts of the payment is on-demand charging, but the standard of charging is different. Computing is mainly charged according to node, storage is charged according to the amount of stored data, and network is charged according to bandwidth.
Analog Chip: The "Heart" of the Metaverse
Analog chips connect the physical world and the digital world to meet the computational needs of the content, network, blockchain, and graphic rendering of the metaverse, and are indispensable in electronic systems. Integrated circuits can be divided into analog chips and digital chips, which process continuous analog signals and discrete digital signals respectively; analog chips can be divided into power management chips, signal chain chips, rf systems according to function, according to WSTS, the global analog chip market size will reach $61.2 billion in 2021, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year.
The signal chain chip is responsible for sending and receiving, converting, amplifying, filtering, etc. of the analog signal. Signal chain products can be divided into three categories: linear products, converter products, and interface products. Among them, linear products play amplification, comparison, on, disconnection and other functions in the transmission process, converter products are responsible for the mutual transfer of analog signals and digital signals, and interface products realize the transmission of digital signals between electronic systems. As a leading enterprise of signal chain analog chips, Sriepu widely uses chips in communications, industry, household, medical and other fields.
05. What risks may be faced to the development of the metaverse
The risk of the development of the metacosm does not come from the metacosm, but is a risk that is difficult to avoid when new things appear
At present, the metaverse industrial ecosystem is in a chaotic period, and some people may exaggerate its role or utility, and many problems corresponding to the real world may appear in it. It should be noted that most of the risks also exist in today's PC Internet and mobile Internet, and are not unique to the metaverse, such as capital manipulation, public opinion bubbles, addiction risks, etc., but in the end we are pleased to see that the development of the Internet has not made people addicted, but has greatly promoted the development of productive forces. (Source: Future Think Tank)
The metacosmity development faces 10 major risks:
(1) Capital manipulation: There are still many uncertainties in the meta-universe in the embryonic period, and the pursuit of new things in the primary and secondary markets exceeds the speed of industrial development, and the capital market urgently needs to return to rationality.
(2) Public opinion bubble: Irrational public opinion bubble will lead to irrational trading shocks in various factor markets.
(3) Ethical constraints: The consensus of the ethical framework still needs to be explored from multiple perspectives is a long process.
(4) Monopoly tension: The competitive situation between the giants determines the relative closure of their ecology, and complete openness and distributed interaction are difficult to achieve.
(5) Industrial inner volume: The breakthrough in the rules has not changed the status of the industrial inner volume from the essence, and the metacosm is not a paradise.
(6) Computing power pressure: How to ensure the stability of cloud computing, low-cost computing resources and many other problems to be solved.
(7) Economic risk: Economic risk may be transmitted from the virtual world to the real world.
(8) Risk of addiction: Excessive immersion in the virtual world may also exacerbate psychological problems such as social fear and social alienation.
(9) Privacy risk: People have insufficient awareness of privacy protection in the existing Internet era, individual privacy data as the underlying resource supporting the continuous operation of the metaverse needs to be continuously updated and expanded, and the compliant collection, storage and management of data resources have yet to be explored.
(10) Intellectual property rights: The issue of confirmation of intangible assets has always been the main factor plaguing the development of related industries, and the future multi-subject collaboration and adaptation and application across the boundary between virtual and real may lead to a number of disputes in property rights.
Excerpts from the report:
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank]. Future Think Tank - Official website