This year, the top card of YihongLou is "oil"
In the seven days of the Spring Festival, the most fierce rise overseas is oil
Brent and the two major classes of oils in the United States, both stood for $90, and I took a look:
- Brent's Spring Festival rose 4.52%
- U.S. crude oil rose 5.87% during the Spring Festival
The weekly gains are a bit fierce, and today's disk, crude oil continues to attack:
The cloth oil has reached $93
Remember that Blackstone's Byron Wien predicted at the beginning of this year that oil prices will rise to $100 in 2022, and maybe it will be seen in the first quarter.
In addition, he also predicted that the US stock market will be roughly flat in the next year, during which the correction will not exceed 20%, and the gold price will rise to a record high.
Global central banks are panicked
Before the Spring Festival, the global central bank is still calm, this Spring Festival has passed, basically has been abandoned, three logics:
"Inflation is temporary"
"The epidemic has led to a supply chain that has led to an increase in inflation"
"The epidemic is over, supply chains are restored, inflation is falling"
The main reasons are:
First, crude oil rose
Second, grain has risen
These two are the lowest, crude oil is eaten by machines, and grain is eaten by people
Two rises, driving everything
Why are these two rising?
On oil, there are two main reasons:
First, the money is printed too much, and the central bank is too late to take it back (balance sheet reduction)
Second, in the past decade, the world has advocated new energy, and traditional oil investment has fallen like a cliff, resulting in the use of oil now, new energy can not be replenished, and traditional energy cannot be supplied.
The second reason may lead to the recent crude oil will continue to rise, OPEC can not help, from December last year to January this year, the amount of production increase, the member states to open up full horsepower, but also only used 60%.
On grain:
Or too much money, leading to a decline in food prices, agricultural mechanization, global aging, can not suppress food prices, is too much market water, liquidity is too abundant, or that the global central bank printed too much money.
So from Powell in the United States to Lagarde in Europe, they all looked up at the stars, saw the inflation in the sky, looked down and picked up the butcher knife, and began to raise interest rates and shrink the balance sheet.....
Conclusion
A simple point gives the conclusion:
The butcher's knife of the global central bank is to raise interest rates and shrink the balance sheet, and before this did not start, inflation was still very arrogant.
Therefore, crude oil and raw materials will still rise before the central bank really sells, which is a theme worthy of attention.
Secondly, after the Spring Festival, the banner of China's infrastructure construction will inevitably be raised, and the scale is not small. It is bound to drive up the price of raw materials around the world, which is also a factor that was not fully considered before the festival, perhaps Master Bao of the United States and Grandma La of Europe did not notice when looking at the stars.
Therefore, in the first half of the year, at least in the first quarter, the theme of inflation investment is still relatively clear.
Oil is a commodity, a basic raw material
The surface is grain, but the domestic grain-related theme will have certain risks, because it involves people's livelihood, price control, and investment logic can be clear, but the effect may not be good.
With crude oil reaching $94...
Recently, energy stocks have also ushered in spring
In today's soaring section, the oil sector ushered in a rising tide, and even the giant PetroChina was almost up and down.
In addition, today's large infrastructure sector is also very powerful! Driving cement, steel, building decoration and other related plates have ushered in a good start.
According to the data, nearly 70 ETFs in the field rose by more than 3%, and 26 rose by more than 4%, of which infrastructure, energy, resources, nonferrous metals, steel, and central enterprise innovation accounted for the vast majority.
As we said yesterday, if you want to invest, try to go upstream, raw materials, commodities, etc., plus undervalued value stocks, may be a strategy.
Think back to the year of the epidemic
Oil prices have passed through the warehouse
The price breaks through zero
In bank transactions, between laughter and laughter, banknotes are gone
Revisited, the position has exploded, and the oil price is nearly 100
Life is like a dream, a bucket of salty rivers and moons
Some institutional analysis shows that inflation protection, energy transition, geopolitical risks, reopening and underinvestment will continue to support commodity prices in 2022, and the possibility of commodities outperforming the stock market again is extremely high, and the probability of chemical prices rising is also rapidly pushed up.