In 2021, the heavy-duty truck market ended with the second highest point in history (1.395 million units) and a 14% year-on-year decline.
In the past January, what kind of report card did the heavy truck hand over?
Is it up month-on-month, or is it down month-on-month?
According to preliminary data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in January 2022, the mainland heavy-duty truck market sold about 78,000 units, up 36% from December 2021, but down 57% from 183,400 units in the same period last year.
Monthly trend chart of heavy-duty truck sales in the mainland heavy-duty truck market from 2015 to 2022 (unit: units)
According to the analysis of the first commercial vehicle network, the reasons for the month-on-month growth and year-on-year decline in the heavy-duty truck market in January are mainly in three aspects.
First of all, the base of the same period last year was too large, and it was inevitable that sales in January this year would fall sharply year-on-year. At the beginning of 2021, stimulated by the continuous hot market in the second half of 2020, various heavy-duty truck companies stocked a large number of goods, coupled with some head companies to "move" part of the invoice sales in December 2020 to January, and strive to open the door; therefore, The mainland heavy-duty truck market sold 183,400 vehicles in January 2021, which is the highest sales level in the history of the heavy-duty truck market in January, and nearly 70,000 more than the previous historical record of 116,600 units in January 2020! With such a high base for the same period, a sharp year-on-year decline in sales in January this year is a foregone conclusion.
Secondly, sales in December 2021 are relatively sluggish, coupled with the major enterprises to strive for a good start in 2022, so the month-on-month growth is also inevitable. According to the production and sales bulletin released by the China Automobile Association, in December 2021, the sales volume of the heavy-duty truck market in mainland China was 57,500 units, down 47.5% year-on-year, and the sales volume was only slightly higher than that in August, October and November of that year, and less than the monthly average of 58,200 units in the second half of 2021. Such a low sales level has laid the foundation for the month-on-month growth in January this year; on the other hand, although the demand for the terminal market is still very low, the major enterprises still have to strive to ensure the "opening red" (at least the "opening red" with a large increase in the month-
Third, terminal demand remains sluggish. This also means that the month-on-month increase in sales in January is actually a large part of the reason why heavy-duty truck companies are preparing for the arrival of the traditional peak season after the Spring Festival, so they stock up in advance in the distribution channels. At the beginning of 2022, a series of unfavorable factors such as insufficient supply of goods in the logistics and transportation industry, limited production in the manufacturing industry, less goods in the vehicles, sluggish start of infrastructure projects, and higher inventory in the heavy truck industry, which have become increasingly prominent since May 2021, have not been eliminated in January this year, but have continued. Moreover, in January, there are still factors such as epidemic prevention and control in various places, poor transportation of materials, coupled with the impact of the Spring Festival approaching and the return of logistics practitioners to their hometowns for the New Year, the demand for car purchases in January can be said to be very sluggish, and manufacturers and dealers actually do not have much hope for the Market in January, but mainly in the traditional peak season of the year to make product reserves.
Annual trend chart of heavy-duty truck sales in the mainland heavy-duty truck market from 2014 to 2022 (unit: 10,000 units)
In January, the heavy-duty truck market barely achieved a "good start" with sales of 78,000 units and a 36% increase from the previous month. However, it should be noted that this 78,000 vehicles is far less than the same period in 2021 and the same period in 2020, nor is it as good as the same period in 2019 (98,700 units) and the same period in 2018 (109,600 units), or even less than the level of 83,000 units in January 2017. In 2017, the total annual sales of the mainland heavy-duty truck market were 1.117 million units. Can the heavy-duty truck market in 2022 reach the sales scale in 2017?