At the beginning of 2022, the sharp decline in US stocks has filled the market with pessimism.
Statistics show that in addition to the positive growth of Buffett's assets, the assets of the top ten richest people in the Forbes Us rich list have more or less shrunk. Faced with a complex situation, Goldman Sachs recommends buying defensive assets, and the agency also predicts that the gold price will rise from $2,000 to $2,150 in the future.
On the one hand, the market is full of worries about the future of the US stock market, on the other hand, some investors are quite optimistic, believing that the market will stabilize after the holiday. So, will the US stock market have a big fall in the future? Will the bull market in tech stocks end here?
In fact, at the beginning of 2022, affected by the expectation of interest rate hikes, US technology stocks have fallen to varying degrees, of which the most obvious decline is Tesla, the leader of new energy vehicles.
On January 27, Tesla disclosed the fourth quarter of 2021 financial report, which showed that for the whole year of 2021, Tesla achieved revenue of $53.823 billion, an increase of 71% year-on-year; net profit of $5.519 billion, an increase of 665% year-on-year. It is reported that this is the second consecutive year that Tesla has achieved profitability.
Despite this, Tesla's stock price on January 27 still fell 11.55%, and its market value fell below the two thresholds of $1 trillion and $900 billion consecutively. It was not until January 28 that Tesla's stock price stopped falling and recovered, and its market value returned to above the $900 billion mark.
According to Tesla's fourth quarter financial report, Tesla's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021 was $17.72 billion, an increase of 65% year-on-year; net profit was $2.321 billion, an increase of 760% year-on-year, which shows that its growth rate in the fourth quarter is still higher than the previous three quarters, and the growth rate has not slowed down.
Tesla believes that good financial data shows that electric vehicles have a wider market than fuel vehicles, and people no longer doubt the profitability of electric vehicle companies. Despite this, the market still has no doubts, although Tesla's stock price rose by 10.68% on January 31, but the current crisis of Tesla, or US technology stocks, has not been lifted, for the following reasons:
First, the current Fed interest rate hike is a foregone conclusion, and the future interest rate hike may exceed the market's expectations, when the US stock market will certainly be affected;
Second, with the end of the global epidemic, the outbreak growth of some technology stocks such as Netflix will end, and technology stocks will return to normal, so the pullback is an inevitable trend.
Third, in the past two years, in the absence of significant improvement in fundamentals, some technology stocks have risen several times, which means that the current US technology stocks have accumulated certain risks;
Fourth, global risk aversion has been heating up, and the capital represented by Buffett has held a new high in cash holdings for five consecutive years, which also illustrates some problems.
Of course, some institutions believe that the current is a pullback, and the bull market structure of the US stock market will not change.
On Jan. 31, Marko Kolanovic, chief equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase, said the Fed's expected rate hikes later this year would not end the rally in U.S. stocks.
On February 1, "Sister Wood" expressed firm continued optimism about Tesla, although on the same day Tesla was asked by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to recall 53,822 cars located in the United States.
Not only that, on January 27, Wood Sister's fund bought 33,482 shares of Tesla stock. On January 31, Wood Sister's Ark Innovation ETF and Ark Next Generation Internet ETF bought Tesla stock again. Another fund, the Ark Automation Technology and Robotics ETF, also holds a large amount of Tesla stock.
On the whole, I think that although there has been a certain degree of rebound in the US stock market at present, in the long run, the downward trend of the US stock market has not changed, and after the rise in the past few years, the accumulated risk has not been released, so I think that in 2022, the US stock market plunge is a high probability event.