Produced by Radar Finance and | Li Yihui, ed. | Deep Sea
On January 28, the topic of #Xiaomi's market value evaporating nearly 400 billion a year rushed to the hot search.
The cause of the incident was that Lei Jun, chairman and CEO of Xiaomi, sent a Microblog, saying that he had prepared a "Limited WeChat Red Envelope Cover for the Year of the Tiger" for fans. Unexpectedly, under Weibo, it was "chased and blocked" by shareholders, "Xiaomi stock broke, save Xiaomi." "Mr. Lei, Xiaomi's stock price should be supported, and it has lost three or four hundred thousand." "Can you respond positively to the stock price, I can't stand it."
Radar Finance noted that on January 27, Xiaomi closed at HK$16.48, falling below the issue price of HK$17 again. On January 28, Xiaomi's stock price fell to HK$15.88 intraday, a new low since August 2020, and finally closed at HK$16.26. Based on the highest price of HK$35.9 per share in January 2021, Xiaomi's market value evaporated by HK$490 billion in one year.
"After two years, I can finally look up and stand up and be a person again." After Xiaomi's stock price came out of the trough, Lei Jun said that the psychological shadow caused by the "break" to him finally disappeared, "Those stock software are all deleted, I no longer have to care about the stock price." This time broke again, some netizens shouted Lei Jun: "Mr. Lei, quickly put the stock speculation software back." ”
Behind the decline in stock prices, the latest smartphone shipments released by statistical agencies show that Apple topped the domestic mobile phone market in the fourth quarter and returned to the top of the sales crown after 6 years. In this list, Xiaomi's share ranked fifth, not even as good as the glory of regrouping, and the gap with Apple's share widened to 10 percentage points.
Mobile phone sales have been frustrated, although Lei Jun still dreams of "reaching the top of the world in three years", but the reality is that he has to "use it twice" and focus on car-related matters. It is difficult to judge the odds of making a car, but the falling stock price shows that the capital market is not optimistic about the future of millet.
After Lei Jun "re-became a man", the stock price broke again
Looking back at Xiaomi's capital market road, on July 9, 2018, Xiaomi Group landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with an issue price of HK$17. As a result, the stock price on the first day of listing suffered a break, making Lei Jun's bold statement that "we want to double the stock price of investors who bought millet on the day of listing" into a joke.
In August 2021, Lei Jun talked about the feeling of the stock price breaking at that time in his speech. It is reported that when Xiaomi knocked on the gong to go public, there were more than 600 people watching the ceremony, although in the case of the investment bank setting the IPO issue price at 17-22 Hong Kong dollars, Xiaomi chose the lowest price of 17 Hong Kong dollars. However, on the first day of listing, it was still broken.
Lei Jun said, "None of us are willing to face this situation, and our hearts are particularly uncomfortable, and we (Lei Jun and Xiaomi co-founder Lin Bin) hid in a utility room of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange." ”
At the internal appreciation banquet on the night of the listing, Lei Jun couldn't help but say: "Sorry everyone, today we broke the hair, but we will work hard, we must let the investors in the IPO at least double the profit." ”
The next day, Lei Jun bought a pair of ripped jeans to remind himself to remember the day of the broken hair. However, Xiaomi's stock price fell more and more miserably, falling to a minimum of HK$8.28 on September 2, 2019.
As the stock price went all the way down, Lei Jun's mood also fell to the bottom, "At that time, almost everyone was about to collapse, and even some people thought that it would fall to 4 yuan, during that time, I was particularly reluctant to meet investors, I saw them What do I say?" ”
According to Lei Jun's recollection, "There was an investor who insisted on seeing me, and as soon as he sat down and only exchanged a few words of greeting, he said unceremoniously, how did you let me lose so much money?" I really don't know how you did it. Then from Xiaomi's strategy to Xiaomi's products, to Xiaomi's management, I was trained like a primary school student for more than an hour. I don't want to tell everyone that my shirt was wet at the time, and I sat alone in the conference room for a long time after the meeting, and that moment was particularly desperate. ”
At that time, the outside world speculated that the investor who "counted down" Lei Jun was Ma Yun's wife, but it was denied by both sides. Lei Jun specially sent a circle of friends to respond to this: "I am friends with Zhang Ying, the investment topic in last night's speech has nothing to do with her, and the online rumors are all rumors." ”
Later, Lei Jun plucked up the courage to persuade everyone to buy back shares, and with the support of the board of directors, Xiaomi repurchased 3.6 billion shares of Xiaomi at an average cost of 9.35 Hong Kong dollars. Since then, Xiaomi's stock price has slowly come out of the trough, and on July 10, 2020, the day after the second anniversary of listing, the stock price returned to the issue price of HK$17.
Lei Jun said: "After two years, I can finally look up and stand up and be a person again." "By January 4, 2021, Xiaomi shares closed at HK$34.
"Let the IPO investors double the money, the bull that was originally bragged, we finally cashed in!" Lei Jun said that the psychological shadow caused by the "broken hair" has finally disappeared, "those stock software have all been deleted, and I no longer have to care about the stock price." ”
At that time, Xiaomi's growth mainly came from the strength of the mobile phone business. On the one hand, Huawei's chip supply cutout has led to a part of the market share outflow; on the other hand, Xiaomi's high-end machine strategy in 2020 has begun to bear fruit.
Immediately after March 30, 2021, Xiaomi official Xuan Leijun personally led the team to build a car, good news gave the capital market a shot in the arm, Xiaomi stock price in early June 2021 to achieve a wave of small rebound. Since the second half of 2021, Xiaomi's stock price has risen and fallen, but it has shown a downward trend overall, and has not returned to the level of HK$30.
This time, Xiaomi's stock price broke again, and netizens shouted Lei Jun: "Mr. Lei, quickly install the stock speculation software back." ”
Some shareholders said that "young people cut their waists for the second time", "Xiaomi stock has broken again, is it worthy of minority shareholders?" Deeply understand that you can only buy Xiaomi's products, and you can't be a shareholder of Xiaomi. Another shareholder revealed that he fried Xiaomi with a big loss of three or four hundred thousand.
In the 4th quarter, Apple reached the top in China, and Xiaomi fell by 8%
Compared with the favorable internal and external situation when the stock price returned to the issue price last time, while the stock price performance at this stage is not good, Xiaomi is also constantly worried.
The first is to be blacklisted by the U.S. government as "related to the Chinese military," where U.S. investors are required to sell their shares in "blacklisted" companies by November 11, 2021, under the U.S. government's investment ban. Affected by this, Xiaomi Group's stock once fell sharply.
However, on May 25, 2021, after a four-month lawsuit, the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia lifted the recognition of Xiaomi's "Chinese military company" and formally revoked all restrictions on U.S. investors buying or holding the company's securities.
Secondly, in the Indian market, where Xiaomi has a dominant position, the local government has recovered 6.53 billion rupees (about 558 million yuan) in taxes.
On January 5 this year, India's Ministry of Finance issued a statement saying that Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi had "tax evasion" in local companies in India, requiring it to recover taxes between April 2017 and June 2020. India's Minte newspaper website reported that Xiaomi and OPPO, two Chinese mobile phone companies, may pay huge fines for "tax evasion".
In this regard, Xiaomi said that the Indian authorities required Xiaomi to pay back the import tax related to royalties between April 1, 2017 and June 30, 2020, which has nothing to do with Xiaomi's recent business, and the official statement is not the final result.
In addition to the negative news, Xiaomi's performance is also facing challenges.
In the third quarter of 2021, Xiaomi achieved revenue of 78.06 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year; operating profit of 2.728 billion yuan, down 59.2% year-on-year; adjusted net profit of 5.176 billion yuan, an increase of 25.4% year-on-year.
As Xiaomi's largest business segment, mobile phones account for more than 60% of its total revenue, but the revenue growth rate of this part is not as fast as the growth rate of total revenue. In the third quarter, Xiaomi's smartphone business achieved revenue of 47.8 billion yuan, an increase of only 4.4 percentage points year-on-year.
Behind the lack of revenue growth, the latest statistics show that Xiaomi mobile phone sales are also declining.
In the global market, Canalys data shows that Apple's smartphone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2021 accounted for 22% of the global total. Samsung ranks second with a market share of 20%. Xiaomi is still in third place with a market share of 12%. OPPO and Vivo ranked fourth and fifth, respectively.
In the Chinese market, according to the latest data released by Counterpoint, in the fourth quarter of 2021, Xiaomi's market share was only 13%, ranking fifth, and sales fell by 8% year-on-year.
It is worth mentioning that Apple successfully topped this list, and this is also the first time since the fourth quarter of 2015 that it has gained the highest Market share in China, successfully breaking the record.
For the whole year of 2021, Counterpoint's report shows that in the global market smartphone market, Samsung ranked first with a slight advantage over Apple, and Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo each occupied one seat in the top five.
In the second quarter of last year, Xiaomi briefly surpassed Apple to take second place in the world, and then gave up the position in the third quarter.
In the latest press conference, Lei Jun has made it clear that Xiaomi will not only take three years to win the world's first, but also officially benchmark Apple. But statistically speaking, it is difficult to accomplish this task.
On the domestic side, vivo ranked first in the Chinese market in the whole year of 2021, with a market share of 22%. OPPO ranked second with a market share of 21%. Apple ranked third, with a year-on-year sales growth rate of 47%, the fastest among the top five manufacturers. Xiaomi and Honor are in fourth and fifth place, respectively, with market shares of 15% and 10% respectively.
The report argues that Apple's performance in Chinese mainland, driven by the iPhone 13's outstanding performance, is unprecedented, and the aggressive pricing of its flagship product keeps its value proposition strong.
Analysts believe that Huawei's fall has benefited Xiaomi and Apple the most, with Xiaomi and Apple sales increasing by 40% and 47% respectively in 2021. This is because after Huawei is restricted, most of the original high-end users flow to Apple, and low-end users flow to Xiaomi and OV.
But the glory of the return has risen again, eating up xiaomi's share of the low-end market. In the third quarter of last year, Glory quickly returned to the top three, and Xiaomi could only rank fourth.
In addition, Counterpoint believes that Xiaomi mobile phones are also facing a continuous serious shortage of parts and components, offline channel penetration slowdown and other difficulties.
The car-making strategy is no longer optimistic about the market
The overall situation of the mobile phone market is undecided, and various changes in the competitive situation, Lei Jun may have no time to take care of it.
Tianyan's investigation shows that Lei Jun recently stepped down as chairman of Beijing Xiaomi Electronics Co., Ltd. Lei Jun posted on Weibo that there are many subsidiaries under xiaomi group, and the adjustment of the board of directors and legal representatives of the subsidiaries is very normal, and everyone does not have to misunderstand.
Wang Hua, general manager of the public relations department of Xiaomi Group, responded that it was a normal change, saying that Lei Jun's energy was mainly focused on car-related matters, and executives could already share some of the relevant work and responsibilities.
As early as the official announcement of the car, Lei Jun has a resolute attitude, regarding car building as the last major entrepreneurial project in his life, and he is willing to bet on the full reputation of his life and personally lead the team to fight for Xiaomi Automobile.
At present, whether it is Xiaomi's frequent investment layout around the car-making industry chain, or Lei Jun's withdrawal from the leadership seats of many affiliated companies, the priority of its car-making strategy has been significantly improved.
While it appears that everything is going well, the capital markets are not buying it. Since the announcement of the car on March 30 last year, Xiaomi's stock price has fallen by 35%, and in the last 5 consecutive trading days, the market value has evaporated by more than HK$230 billion.
Wang Xinxi, a senior TMT reviewer, analyzed in the article that in the case of Tesla, Xiaopeng, Weilai and other players who have been deeply cultivating for many years, Xiaomi needs to catch up from scratch, which is a process that requires long-term accumulation and investment.
"In the automotive sector, as a latecomer, it is often necessary to pay a greater price to surpass the existing leaders in the market. Xiaomi already needs to continue to invest in the supply chain, software development, smart cockpit and other aspects, but there are still many places to spend money. Wang Xinxi said that some insiders concluded that just to burn out a set of digital tram systems, Weilai burned nearly 40 billion yuan, and Tesla burned more than 100 billion yuan.
In Huawei's methodology, there is a "principle of pressure": use ten times the resources and ten times the manpower to break the conflict until it exceeds the original leader. According to this principle, it is estimated that new entrants must "burn" at least 200 billion yuan in a short period of time in order to smooth the gap between the strength of new forces and new forces as soon as possible.
It can be seen that Xiaomi, which has invested in the layout from scratch, has said that it plans to invest 10 billion US dollars to build a car, but how long this money can burn is full of uncertainty.
In contrast, Evergrande, which has invested a total of 47.4 billion yuan in the new energy automobile industry, has achieved the first model off the production line. When the xiaomi car lands in mass production in 2024, the cost can only be greater than this.
Industry insiders believe that with the mobile phone business due to lack of core and competition squeeze and growth restrictions, millet pressure in the capital market is bound to become greater again, has tasted the taste of the break, whether to continue to concentrate on building cars, or turn around to guard the basic disk, I am afraid it is also a dilemma.
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