Get up in the morning and take a closer look at Tesla's phone to see what happens in 2022.
The following information can be distilled and deduced:
There will be no new cars in 2022. In other words, the low-cost $25,000 model is expected to be issued in 2023, and it may also be that the focus is on the layout of production capacity in the four bases at this stage, rather than the development of the development conference to divert demand.
●The 4680 battery has been partially stockpiled and will be launched in Q1 2022. From the current point of view, the 4680 in the Texas factory will be launched first, while the Berlin factory will continue to use the 2170 battery, and the two types will be carried out simultaneously in 2022, which will become a very important turning point with the supply of Tesla itself and suppliers.
● Chip restrictions are also a challenge for players like Tesla who can flexibly convert and have extremely high priorities in chip suppliers (mainly 50% increase in demand in 2022), so for the automotive industry, chips will be a big bottleneck in resuming production growth in 2022.
Figure 1.In 2022, we will mainly look at the progress of the two plants that are commissioning equipment
Part 1
Tesla's business growth
From the chart below, Tesla achieved rapid revenue growth in 2021, all the way up from the previous month (corresponding to production of 180,000, 206,000, 237,000 and 305,000).
The official figure given in 2022 is more than 50% growth, if distributed according to production, Q1 starts, Texas and Berlin gradually deliver; in Q2 and Q3 to pull capacity, Tesla is expected to deliver and revenue in 2022 will be the same as in 2021 is a gradual upward chart. In other words, after Tesla's revenue is relatively flat in 2018-2020, there may be a substantial increase in the three years of 2021-2023.
Figure 2: Tesla's revenue from 2018-2021
I myself have some doubts about the charging facilities. From the data point of view, in 2021, 912 stations will be built, 8221 charging piles will be added, and 3476 stations and 31498 charging piles will be built at present.
This 35% growth rate does not match the global new increase of 930,000 a year (70%) growth rate. And 2021 is still a time point for Tesla to open the charging facilities, from the current point of view, the effective area of global fast charging (there is enough distribution load, users are willing to use high frequency) may be limited, especially China's first-tier cities.
Figure 3: Tesla's overcharging in 2021 in the world
Part 2
Energy storage and batteries
In Tesla's small business, there is the rapid growth of energy storage, around the Power Pack and Mega Pack, Tesla gave guidance is 200-300% growth. This piece was switched from the previous 18650 battery to the lithium iron phosphate battery (this conference call was also clearly confirmed that the 4680 battery would not be used to do it), and there was a great guarantee at the supplier level.
Figure 4.Demand for 4GWh in 2021 is forecast to 12GWh by 2022
At present, 4680 should be a basic platform that will continue to improve lean production costs and efficiency to achieve the target planned battery cell cost target, and in terms of chemical system, this is the first time that lithium iron phosphate will not be used.
Combined with previous reports from Nikkei Asia, Panasonic has approved an investment of 80 billion yen ($705 million) in Japan's Wakayama plant to produce 4680 batteries for Tesla, a 10GWh capacity in 2023 that is clearly part of that.
Note: From the current point of view, Panasonic will be supplied in Japan and the United States, otherwise Panasonic's proportion under the Tesla system will further decline.
So let's comb through the supply of the 4680:
● Berlin: The first LG2170 batteries, switched to the Berlin factory Tesla homegrown 4680, LG 4680 as a combination;
● Texas: The first batch of 4680 Tesla's self-produced batteries, adding panasonic Japan and the United States to invest in the 4680 production capacity, the follow-up will also consider LG's increased production capacity in the United States.
Summary: From the current point of view, the supply restrictions of automotive chips to automotive companies in 2022 will still be greater than the capacity limit of batteries. In 2022, whether it is Tesla or China's new energy vehicles from Q1 to Q4, there will be a trend of low before and high.