A-share prediction of 14 top fund managers in heavy stocks: consensus and divergence under the framework of "technology + consumption"

21st Century Business Herald Pang Huawei reports

The fund's four quarterly reports are intensively disclosed, and a large number of star fund managers have surfaced their position adjustment movements.

For example, Zhang Kun, Fu Pengbo, Liu Gesong, Xiao Nan, Wang Zonghe, Zhao Yi, Feng Mingyuan, Zhao Feng, Wei Jiao, Gui Kai, Wu Xingwu, Han Chuang, Wang Rui, Zheng Zehong and other star funds managed.

In the fourth quarter of 2021, how did they adjust their positions? Which directions are they optimistic about?

Star fund managers are the "wind vane" of the market, 21st Century Business Herald reporters checked the direction of star fund managers in the fourth quarter of 2021, and found that from the 2021 four quarters report, star fund managers have a lot of common tendencies, but also show different ideas.

Heavy stocks piled up "technology + consumption"

Judging from the 2021 four quarterly reports of many star fund managers reviewed by reporters, star fund managers have a consensus that they are generally optimistic about technology (especially new energy) and consumption tracks.

The representative fund of the star fund manager, in the first three heavy stocks in the fourth quarter of 2021, can see this trend of "technology + consumption":

Zhang Kun's E Fangda Blue Chip Selection: Tencent Holdings, Hikvision, Luzhou Laojiao; Fu Pengbo's Ruiyuan Growth Value A: Sanan Optoelectronics, Luxshare Precision, China Mobile; Liu Gesong's GF Dual Engine Upgrade A: LONGi Shares, Sunshine Power, Shengbang Shares; Xiao Nan's E Fangda Consumer Industries: Guizhou Maotai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye; Wang Zonghe's Penghua Consumption Preferred: Guizhou Maotai, Kailaiying, Ningde Era; Zhao Yi's ABC Huili New Energy Theme: Ningde Era, Putailai, Tianci Materials Feng Mingyuan's Xinda ABC new energy industry: Pu Tailai, ZTE, Tianqi Lithium; Gui kai's Harvest Taihe: National Porcelain Materials, Zhongke Chuangda, Hua testing; Zhao Feng's Ruiyuan equilibrium value three years A: China Mobile, Wanhua Chemical, Shunyu Optical Technology; Wang Rui's Xincheng emerging industries A: Shanshan shares, Ningde times, JA Technology...

The top three heavy stocks in the fourth quarter of the star fund are almost all technology or consumer stocks.

Taking Zhang Kun, the "public offering brother" who is the most concerned by the market, as an example, at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, Zhang Kun's management scale was 101.9 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 3.8 billion yuan compared with the third quarter of 2021.

Overall, the direction of Zhang Kun's position is technology and consumption, and the direction of reduction is finance, medicine, and real estate, and there are some differences in the specific operation of the 4 funds under his management, but this general direction is very clear.

For example, taking the E Fangda Blue Chip Select Fund, the largest active equity fund managed by Zhang Kun, as an example, this fund has a scale of 67.6 billion yuan, and in the fourth quarter of 2021, it increased the allocation of industries such as technology and reduced the allocation of finance, medicine and other industries.

Specifically, Zhang Kun significantly increased his position in the two stocks of Tencent Holdings and Hikvision in the technology category in the fourth quarter of 2021, making these two stocks the first and second largest heavy stocks, and at the end of the third quarter, these two stocks were only ranked as the eighth and fourth largest heavy stocks;

It is worth mentioning that Tencent Holdings is Zhang Kun's largest heavy stock, and among the 4 funds he manages, Tencent Holdings is the first heavy stock of 3 funds and the second largest heavy stock of the 4 funds.

The logic behind it may be that when affected by monopoly-related policies, Tencent Holdings' stock price has experienced a sharp correction, and Zhang Kun has significantly reduced his position in Tencent Holdings in the third quarter of 2021, but in the fourth quarter of 2021, Zhang Kun has again significantly increased his position in Tencent Holdings and added it to the first heavy stock.

At the same time, Zhang Kun reduced the liquor position, and in the funds he managed, he more or less reduced the positions of 4 heavy liquor stocks - Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe Shares.

For financial stocks, Zhang Kun's adjustment direction is to reduce the position, but the specific operation is treated differently, he did not move the China Merchants Bank, and his position remained unchanged, but he reduced the position of Ping An Bank.

Another example is the three-year holding fund of another fund, E Fangda Quality Enterprise,

Zhang Kun's operation path is roughly similar, all of which are liquor and bank stocks, and technology stocks.

In addition to Zhang Kun, Wang Zonghe's Penghua Consumption Preferred Allocation Direction also attaches equal importance to "technology + consumption". For example, the fund's top three heavy stocks are Guizhou Moutai, Kailaiying, and Ningde Times. "Ning Wang" is the third largest heavy stock of the fund, and the ninth largest heavy stock of the fund, Sunshine Power, belongs to the new energy sector.

Wang Zonghe said that he hopes to find excellent tracks and excellent companies in some new industries to earn the benefits of these corporate value growth for investors.

"In the medium and long term, in the context of technological innovation, China's economy will definitely produce more new industrial ecosystems and give birth to more excellent companies." Wang Zonghe said.

Harvest Fund's star fund manager is Caste Taihe Fund managed by Kai, and as of the end of the fourth quarter, the proportion of the fund's major asset holdings is technology, advanced manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and consumption.

Fu Pengbo, a big coffee in the fund industry, said in the 2021 four quarters report of Ruiyuan Growth Value that the focus is on sub-sectors such as building materials, chemicals, TMT and new energy, and next, new energy, military industry, new materials, and high-end manufacturing are still the industries he focuses on.

Even Xiao Nan, the "king of consumption", said that the configuration of the automobile and parts sectors was greatly increased in the fourth quarter of last year, on the grounds that he found that the replacement of domestic cars for joint venture cars entered an acceleration range. In fact, the best track last year was the new energy vehicle industry chain, and Fuyao Glass, a heavy stock in the fourth quarter of the E Fangda consumer industry managed by it, belonged to this industrial chain.

There are different styles of repositioning operations

Despite the common ground, star fund managers did not differ in their specific repositioning operations in the fourth quarter of last year.

Since the fourth quarter of last year, there have been some new changes in the market, style switching, switching from high valuation to low valuation, and switching from growth stocks to value stocks, such as the high volatility of the new energy sector and the low valuation sector gradually out of the weak state.

In the treatment of new energy, Zhao Feng of Ruiyuan Fund has profited from some of the new energy stocks that have risen sharply. He has long focused on the excellent enterprises that are undervalued by the market, and pays close attention to the enterprises that can still show strong operational resilience in the context of many macro factors.

As a typical track-type player, Shi Cheng of SDIC UBS currently has 4 products in his hand, all focusing on the field of new energy, and he insists on not letting go of the upstream track.

He put forward a different point of view in the 2021 Four Quarterly Report: "The profitability of emerging industry enterprises continues to increase, the current profit continues to shift upstream, and the profitability of other links in the middle and lower reaches is being compressed." We expect this to happen in the coming year, or even longer. Until the final bottleneck is lifted, the high added value of the industrial chain will shift to the downstream or terminal application. ”

This means that when many institutions in the market are not optimistic about the upstream link in 2022, Shi Cheng will still stick to it.

Unlike Shi Cheng, who is optimistic about the upstream field of new energy, Zhao Yi, the star fund manager of the ABC Huili Fund, prefers the first-line new energy stocks in the midstream and holds them for a long time.

Zhao Yi made it clear in the Four Seasons Report that the portfolio continues to maintain the configuration idea of new energy vehicle batteries and materials, while superimposing high-end manufacturing industries such as photovoltaics, military industry, and vehicle-grade semiconductors.

The Cinda Australia Bank New Energy Industry Fund, managed by star fund manager Feng Mingyuan, still maintained the allocation direction of emerging industries in the fourth quarter, focusing on the allocation of new energy vehicles, new materials, photovoltaics, wind power, high-end equipment, semiconductors and other fields. His feature is diversified holdings, the fund's largest heavy stock Putailai accounted for only 3.55% of the fund's net asset value ratio, and the top ten heavy stocks accounted for only 17.86% of the fund's net value.

The GF Small Cap Growth Fund managed by Liu Gesong, the top fund manager of GF Fund, made adjustments within the new energy sector in the fourth quarter, reducing its holdings in LONGi shares, Ewell Lithium Energy, and adding JA Technology and Xiaokang shares, raising JA Technology from the ninth largest heavy stock in the third quarter to the first largest heavy stock.

At a time when Hong Kong stocks were falling and falling, Zhang Kun, Wang Chong of bocom Schroder Fund and Qiu Dongrong of Zhonggeng Fund all bucked the trend in the fourth quarter and increased the allocation weight of Hong Kong stocks.

Future wind direction

In 2021, the performance of many star fund managers is not ideal. In 2021, the market turned to theme stocks and small-cap stocks, which caused many fund managers who invested in white horse blue chips to suffer Waterloo.

However, this part of the star fund managers are looking for a new path, and they are not pessimistic.

Wang Zonghe said in the Four Seasons Report, "2021 is undoubtedly a difficult year for the style of adhering to in-depth research, long-term shareholding, low turnover rate, and emphasis on long-term value growth space." ”

He pointed out that under the policy changes in 2021, the investment style of in-depth research, long-term holdings, and low turnover rate has been greatly challenged.

However, Wang Zonghe believes that in the long-term chain of A-share market and even various equity investments around the world, value investment is still the most effective and enforceable investment method that has been verified for a long time, and it is an investment idea that can create value for holders. "We firmly believe in our ability in this area."

Gui Kai said that investment is a long run, although the fund has outperformed the market since the beginning of the year, at the current point in time, he is still full of confidence in the quality and future prospects of the main stocks, and he will continue to adhere to and continuously improve his investment methodology and strive to achieve long-term excellent performance for investors.

Zhang Kun said in the 2021 Four Quarters Report, "The current downward pressure on the economy is only staged, and we remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of China's economy, firmly believing that China's economic strength will eventually reach the level of developed countries." ”

It said it was optimistic about "high-quality enterprises" and that "there are a number of high-quality companies that can create value for customers, improve the efficiency and productivity of the whole society, and have the ability to continuously create free cash flow for shareholders." ”

Although the stock price performance of some of these companies in 2021 lags behind the market, Zhang Kun always believes that "to invest well, it is more important to stare at the arena, not on the scoreboard."

Zhang Kun said that he will carefully examine the fundamentals of the enterprises in the portfolio and select enterprises with outstanding competitiveness and high long-term logical certainty to hold for a long time.

"After the valuation digestion in 2021, the valuation of some high-quality enterprises has become attractive, and in the 3-5 year dimension, the performance growth of enterprises will be projected into the growth of their market value." Zhang Kun said.

In 2021, some star fund managers who are heavily positioned in growth tracks such as new energy and technology have achieved good returns. They also have a different outlook for 2022.

Liu Gesong put forward the concept of "global comparative advantage manufacturing" in early 2021, looking forward to 2022, he is still optimistic about the growth sustainability of assets in this direction, profit growth rate expectations: has established a global comparative advantage of the manufacturing leading companies, its entrepreneurial leadership, advanced manufacturing capabilities under the industrial agglomeration and other factors to create a "moat" is still widening, he judged the future in photovoltaics, power batteries, energy storage, panels, new chemical materials, automobiles and auto parts, There will be more world-class companies in the direction of high-end equipment.

Feng Mingyuan judged in the Four Seasons Report that the global energy industry is undergoing profound changes, and the proportion of new energy used is increasing, which will gradually replace the mainstream status of traditional fossil energy in the next 50 years. This process should be irreversible. We believe that in this process of change, a large number of great enterprises will emerge in China, and we hope to grow together with these great enterprises.

Fu Pengbo said that from the perspective of industry distribution, he focused on sub-sectors such as building materials, chemicals, TMT and new energy, and the proportion of core stocks was relatively stable. The prosperity of the industry in which the listed company is located, the medium- and long-term development space and certainty, and the resources available in the growth process are all important indicators of screening. We will dynamically adjust the position structure in combination with the pre-disclosure of the performance of listed companies in January, and new energy, military, new materials, and high-end manufacturing are still the industries we focus on.

Wang Rui said in the four quarterly report of Xincheng Emerging Industry Fund that in the fourth quarter, the core of the product was built around the energy revolution, mainly in photovoltaic, electric vehicles, clean energy operations, transmission and distribution equipment, intelligent vehicles and other fields; gradually reducing the weight of upstream materials in lithium batteries, which played a certain effect on the drawdown control of the combination, but it was not satisfactory. He will continue to look for targets with high cost performance in the pan-manufacturing field with energy reform as the core, in order to strive for long-term steady growth in net worth.

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