In recent years, cherry has been the hottest fruit during the Spring Festival in China, and there is no one.
As an imported fruit consumed by the Chinese people during the Spring Festival, the rise and fall of the price of cherries has always attracted the attention of consumers and the media.
As soon as the price fluctuates, the cherry is on the last hot search.
It went up, sighing that I couldn't afford to eat.
Fall, celebrate the freedom of cherizi.
However, the price of cherries either rises or falls, and it is really incomprehensible that "both up and down".
And this incomprehensible situation is happening right now.
Recently, the media broke out that the price of a cabinet (36.8 tons) of cherries soared by 360,000, and the price per kilogram rose by nearly 10 yuan, and it was still a wholesale price.
However, in the same period, there were also media reports that the price of cherries per kilogram fell by more than 50%, and the largest wholesale price of cherries per kilogram was about 38 yuan.
In the terminal market, the price of cherries is indeed high and low, some consumers buy cheaply, and some consumers buy expensive.
This can't help but make people feel confused, whether the price of cherries is rising or falling, who is lying?
What I want to tell you is that maybe they are not lying, and the paradoxical situation of "both up and down" is not actually contradictory in market trading.
Why?
Let's start with the price cuts
The media broke the news that the price of cherries per kilogram fell by more than 50%, which is very likely.
The price rise and fall of cherries is compared, and the "fall" depends on who is compared
If you compare the current influx of sea freight cherries compared with the small number of cherries that were airlifted in November, the price drop of 50% is less.
Compared with the xl specification of cherries and j specifications and even higher specifications of cherries, the price is definitely lower.
Some friends will say: the logic is right but not applicable here, people in the media broke out is the same specification of the cherry and the same period last year price comparison.
It is true, but know that cherries are agricultural products, and agricultural products are non-standard.
That is to say, even the same specifications of cherries, there will be differences, affecting the price of the same specifications of cherries There are many "differences", I will give a simplest example of the price of cherries.
It takes at least 20 days for imported cherries (sea freight) to be collected and docked, and this time is the whole process of cold chain transportation + other freshness preservation technology applications.
However, after landing into the domestic wholesale market, the whole cold chain cannot be guaranteed.
Cherry has a shelf life, the longer the time to put the quality declines faster, beyond the shelf period of cherry will completely lose commerciality.
If the cherries sold by the merchant are inventory goods, for rapid shipment, it is normal for the price to drop by 50%, otherwise there is no dime.
So the media who cut prices and the friends who bought low-priced cherries did not lie.
Let's look at price increases
What can be determined is that as of now, from the perspective of the big market, the price of cheli this year is higher than that of the same period last year, and the price of brand chelizi and high-specification high-quality cheli has increased even more.
Recently, the cherries sold in the domestic market are the last batch of sea freight goods, according to the South China market news, the next batch of sea freight cherries may have to wait for a day or two to arrive.
The market is at a time when high-quality cherries are "green and yellow", but the closer the year is, the greater the demand for high-spec cherries at the consumer end.
The volume of goods is small, the demand is large, and the price increase is reasonable, so the price of a cabinet of cherries is also very likely to soar by 360,000.
In general, the rise and fall of the price of cherries released by the media is an objective fact under certain preconditions, and the regular media do not dare to spread rumors.
Consumers spend money to buy cherries, low prices or high prices, it does not matter, what is important is what money is spent, what specifications and quality of cherries are bought.
Buying a high price for a car is not necessarily a loss, as long as you don't spend a lot of money to buy goods; buying a car at a low price is not necessarily a bargain, how about "freedom"? Poor quality cherries do not experience happiness.
So what will happen to the price of the cherries in the next time?
Judging from the same period of previous years, the next time should be the concentrated listing period of cherries, and in theory, the price of cherries will decline if the volume of goods is large.
This year, Chilean cherries are another productive year, so many industry people predict that the overall price of cherries will fall sharply in the future.
However, I personally have different views, but I do not predict the specific price market, this is a "metaphysics" is easy to "punch the face", only to talk to you about the objective basis of "different views".
More than 90% of mainland cherries come from Chile, and the overall price of Chilean cherries last year was indeed cheaper than the same period in previous years, the reason for which is that when imported cherries frequently detected the new crown virus, resulting in a decline in consumers' desire to buy, merchants hoarding goods for sale, and had to choose a sharp price reduction.
Some people say that this year also has the impact of the epidemic!
Indeed, there are, but last year's "frequent detections" increased this year's testing and elimination efforts, and the detection of the new crown virus before the Chilean cherries docked was more stringent.
As long as the new crown virus is detected, the batch of cherries cannot be entered, and if the virus samples are sampled after the entry of qualified cherries, they will be directly sealed and destroyed.
What's the problem here?
If the detection rate of the virus in Chilean cherries before docking and after entry is high, the total number of cherries that normally enter the domestic market will decline, and the volume and price reduction will rise in the case of consumer consumption sentiment that has not been hit.
In addition to the new crown virus, there is also a plant virus that affects the total amount of Chilean cherries entering the mainland market.
Last season, the mainland detected for the first time in Chilean cherries of the genus Li necrotic ring spot virus (the source of infection of a variety of plant virus diseases), which was included in the "List of Quarantine Pests Of Imported Plants of the People's Republic of China" by the mainland, and the mainland did not allow imported vegetables and fruits carrying the virus to enter the domestic market for sale.
Therefore, this season has also increased the detection of the plant virus, and not only to detect the harvested fruit, but also to sample the orchard, once the Li genus necrotic ring spot virus is found, the orchard can not be supplied to the Chinese market.
Although Jorge, president of the Chilean Federation of Fruit Producers, remains optimistic about the incidence and extent of Chilean cherries.
However, for Cherry plants, Li genus necrotic ring spot virus disease is a highly transmissible virus disease that cannot be eradicated, so the specific circumstances of the occurrence of the disease are difficult to say.
Once the incidence of plum necrotic ring spot virus disease in Chile is serious, the number of cherries entering the mainland market is bound to decrease.
In addition, the cost of Chilean cherries is increasing, and the cost increase is mainly reflected in two aspects.
One is the increase in the cost of planting and production, which has doubled in recent years thanks to the development of the Chinese market, but it has been accompanied by a shortage of labor.
As a result, the planting and harvesting fees have risen again and again, making the price of cherries out of the garden higher than in previous years.
The second is the increase in transportation costs, which have increased significantly in the past two years due to the impact of the epidemic.
Whether it is planting or the rise in freight costs, it is ultimately necessary for consumers to pay, so from a general point of view, I think it is difficult to appear like last year's "cherry freedom".
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