Produced by | Tiger sniff car group
Author | Wang Xiaoyu
Header image | IC Photo
Why does BYD "mix" well?
In December 2021, BYD sold 97,990 units, up 77.9% year-on-year. Among them, sales of new energy vehicles were 92,823 units, an increase of 236.4% year-on-year. Boosted by new energy, BYD's annual sales reached 730,093 units, up 75.4% year-on-year.
730,000 units, in front of the figure of 20.486 million passenger car retail sales in 2021, at first glance it really does not carry much weight. You know, Great Wall Motors sold 1.28 million units last year, and Geely Automobile even reached 1.328 million units.
But if you look at the new energy vehicle market alone, BYD's data is amazing. According to the official data of car companies, last year, Great Wall Motor's new energy vehicle sales were 136,900 units, Geely's was 100,000 units, and BYD reached 593,000 units - BYD's annual sales of new energy vehicles, equivalent to nearly 2.5 times the sum of Great Wall and Geely.
Image source: BYD Co., Ltd
In BYD's new energy vehicle sales, the biggest growth rate is not pure electricity.
In 2020, BYD's plug-in hybrids sold only 48,000 units, but by 2021, the hybrid reached a staggering 273,900 units, more than 4 times year-on-year. Although DM hybrid models account for only 45% of the annual sales of new energy vehicles, compared with the 1.4 times growth rate of EV pure electric models, hybrid models are undoubtedly the key to BYD's sales counterattack in 2021.
It can only be said that the hero sees a little the same, great wall motor's WEY Wei brand, recently launched a number of DHT hybrid new models. At the end of last year, The Geely side also released the "Thunder God Intelligence Engine Hi · X" hybrid platform, followed by the rapid launch of the Star-Over L Thor Hi · X oil-electric hybrid version.
In 2022, these three independent brands will start a melee fight in the hybrid model market.
First, the hybrid car, not afraid of weaning
Hybrid models have never been as good as pure electricity, and the preferential treatment of the policy kicked it away early.
In February last year, Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Municipal Implementation Measures for Encouraging the Purchase and Use of New Energy Vehicles", and from January 1, 2023, consumers who purchase plug-in hybrid (including range extender) vehicles will no longer issue special licenses for new energy - which means that from next year, the Shanghai license will not be sent to buy hybrids.
The purchase tax exemption policy is also up to the last day of 2022. According to the Announcement on The Policy Related to the Exemption of Vehicle Purchase Tax for New Energy Vehicles issued by the Ministry of Finance, from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2022, the purchase of new energy vehicles will be exempted from vehicle purchase tax. New energy vehicles exempted from vehicle purchase tax refer to pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including range extender) vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles.
In addition, the decline of the new energy subsidy policy also means that the original subsidy amount of plug-in hybrid models is less, less. According to the Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles, the subsidy standard will be reduced by 30% in 2022. In other words, the subsidy amount of plug-in hybrid models (including range extenders) that meet the subsidy conditions will also be reduced by 2040 yuan.
The policy is fully tightened, can the "hybrid" market in 2022 still be "mixed"?
Here you can look at BYD's risk data in November. In the sales volume of plug-in hybrid PHEVs, the gap between first-tier limited-license cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen and other new second- and third-tier unrestricted cities is not too large. To a certain extent, this also means that hybrid models are changing from policy-oriented to market-oriented.
Source: Automotive Electronics Design
In fact, the higher the consumer's acceptance of pure electric vehicles, the higher the demand for hybrids. On the one hand, the distribution of charging facilities is uneven, resulting in many users still have "charging anxiety", and the scene of high-speed charging queues during the New Year's Festival will continue for a long time.
On the other hand, the current power battery technology has not yet appeared subversive innovation, to the recent "new energy vehicles free car purchase tax 50 batch of catalog" declaration data can be seen, the endurance of more than 600 kilometers of new models, accounting for only 13%, the vast majority of new models are still in the range of less than 500 kilometers. In the winter, endurance anxiety is still difficult to hide.
If the characteristics of pure electric acceleration and good ride are combined with the characteristics of fuel vehicle energy replenishment convenience, it is undoubtedly hybrid. For example, the ideal ONE uses a 40.5kWh large-capacity battery to meet the needs of pure electric commuting in the user's city. Then through the oil-based power generation range extender system, to meet the needs of users long-distance travel.
The ideal ONE range extended electric vehicle is the simplest plug-in hybrid. But because it is too simple, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the range extension system, such as in the power loss, high-speed working conditions, the high fuel consumption of the ideal ONE has always been the focus of criticism. Therefore, the hybrid models that are newly listed later will undoubtedly "play cards" according to the "fuel consumption" short board of the ideal ONE.
Second, the independent three strong, the next melee
Here is a small science popularization, according to the degree of electrification to divide, pure oil burning is the internal combustion engine (ICE); adding a small battery is the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV); adding a large battery is plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (referred to as PHEV); finally, Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) is a pure electric vehicle (BEV) that uses the battery as a single source of energy.
Both HEV and PHEV can theoretically be called "hybrid". But HEV can not be plugged into the charging gun to charge, called oil-electric hybrid. But the PHEV can be plugged in the charging gun to charge, called plug-in mixing.
Image credit: The Better NZ Trust
BYD's DM-i belongs to PHEV, and some of the GREAT Wall DHT models are HEV, such as latte DHT is unplugged; part is PHEV, such as Mocha DHT-PHEV is plugged in. Similarly, Geely also has two types of plug-in and unplugged, and the new Star-Over L hybrid is an unplugged HEV.
No matter what kind of technical route, which name, everyone has a primary task, that is, fuel saving.
BYD DM-i uses the EHS single-speed direct drive system of stepless variable speed, while the Great Wall DHT hybrid has two gears in the transmission mechanism, and Geely's Thor hybrid relies on double planetary gears for three gears. These three paths also have their own advantages and disadvantages, but they are fundamentally in solving the problem of the extender of the ideal ONE, relying purely on the output of the motor, and the fuel consumption remains high under some working conditions.
Judging from the official data, BYD and the Great Wall have indeed solved this problem. For example, the Great Wall Macchiato DHT-PHEV's power loss fuel consumption is as low as 4.4L/100km, while qinplus DM-i's power loss fuel consumption is as low as 3.8L/100km.
BYD's DM-i super hybrid system is mainly driven by pure electric power. The internal combustion engine is responsible for generating electricity, and the motor is responsible for powering the car. In urban areas, tandem power (internal combustion engine power generation) is used, while in high-speed conditions where electric drives are inferior, internal combustion engine direct drive is used. Moreover, the electromix system (E-CVT) used by DM-i does not need to change gears, and it is always in one gear, without giving the whole vehicle any opportunity to stumble during driving.
The Great Wall's lemon hybrid DHT emphasizes both performance and economy. For example, DHT has a two-stage gearbox, which has the advantage of allowing the engine to work in a wider speed range when driving directly. Geely added to the "three gears" and put it on the Xingyue L oil-electric hybrid version, which reflects the result that when the engine is directly driven, there are also 3 gears available, further improving the fuel consumption at high speed.
Lemon Hybrid DHT user scenario description
However, there may be some practical problems in both the "second gear" and the "third gear". First of all, the increase in cost is inevitable; secondly, the more complex, the probability of failure will also increase; and finally, during the gear change, the frustration may be more obvious. Because the Great Wall's DHT and Geely Oil-Electric Hybrid have just entered the market, the products need to be further verified.
In addition to low fuel consumption, another key indicator is the ultra-long pure electric endurance of the PHEV model. With the help of large-capacity batteries, you can have longer pure electric endurance while avoiding excess vibrations caused by the engine in a state of at-loss. In addition, in the urban commute, you can burn less oil and use more electricity, further reducing the cost of using a car and catering to the general trend of "carbon reduction".
The two-wheel drive version of the Great Wall Wei brand Mocha DHT-PHEV, the pure electric endurance has reached 204 kilometers under the WRTC standard, which is the longest hybrid model that can be bought in the market, and the four-wheel drive performance version of the WLC pure electric endurance has also reached 175 kilometers. Equipped with a large battery pack of 36.67 kWh, the pre-sale prices corresponding to the two configurations are as high as 299,000 and 315,000 yuan.
The BYD DM-i model, which has increased the pure electric endurance, is also on the road. In the 352nd batch of "Announcement of Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products" announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the WLTC pure electric endurance of the 2022 BYD Han DM-i reached 206 kilometers, and the WLTC pure electric endurance of the 2022 BYD Tang DM-i reached 215 kilometers, of which the total battery energy of The Tang DM-i reached 45.803kWh - this battery pack capacity is even larger than many old pure electric vehicles.
The 352nd Batch of "Announcement of Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products"
Seeing this, many people may still be confused, although BYD, great wall, and Geely all call these cars "hybrid". But in fact, they are taking three completely different routes. As far as the new products launched by everyone are concerned, BYD DM-i is an "electric vehicle with an internal combustion engine", the DHT-PHEV of the Great Wall is a "fuel vehicle with a motor", and Geely's Xingyue L hybrid is an "energy-saving car with a blue card".
Third, the road to changing lanes has just begun
In the top three independent brands on the road of hybridization, BYD is currently the forerunner, the Great Wall is speeding up, and Geely is still catching up.
BYD sold 426,972 units in 2020, of which 189,700 were new energy models and 237,200 were fuel vehicles. By 2021, BYD's cumulative sales will be 740,000 vehicles, of which the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles will be 600,000, accounting for 81% of total sales - basically it has successfully transformed into a "pure new" new energy vehicle company.
According to media reports, in the investor conference call in mid-December 2021, BYD targeted sales of 1.2 million units in 2022, of which 600,000 were pure electric models and 500,000-600,000 plug-in hybrid models.
Image source: BYD Auto
Great Wall Motor's WEY Wei brand has also quietly changed its "lineup". At present, the Mocha, Latte and Macchido that Weipai is selling correspond to the original fuel models VV7, VV6 and VV5 respectively. In addition to the pure fuel version of the mocha, the latte DHT and macchiato DHT only sell hybrid models (including DHT and DHT-PHEV models).
The Wei brand has basically parted ways with the brand image of pure fuel vehicles.
Screenshot of Weipai's official website
With weipai announcing that it will become a complete transformation of China from traditional fuel vehicles to new energy, it will form the three main new energy brands of Great Wall Motors together with Euler and Sharon, helping Great Wall Motors achieve 4 million sales in 2025, while new energy accounts for 80% of the target.
Gilly's starting motion is slightly slower, but it is also accelerating. In October last year, Geely Automobile released the LeiShenZhi Qing Hi · The X hybrid platform covers a variety of hybrid technologies such as HEV, PHEV, and REEV (Extended Range Electric), and is first installed on the Hoshigoku L hybrid model. Last December, Hoshikoshi L Thor Hi · The X oil-electric hybrid version opens for pre-sale, using a three-cylinder 1.5T engine, with a DHT Pro hybrid special transmission.
In terms of sales targets, Geely is still high and high. The previously announced "JiudaLongwan Action" mentioned that by 2025, Geely Automobile Group's new energy sales will reach 900,000 vehicles, accounting for 30%. Coupled with the Extreme Krypton brand, geely new energy's overall sales volume will account for more than 40%. Among them, the model equipped with The Thunder God Engine Hybrid will reach more than 20 models in the next three years, and Geely's goal is to achieve the first sales volume in the mainstream market segment of the hybrid.
Three highly representative independent brands, while making efforts to mix the market, may not be to trigger another "inner volume", but to form a win-win situation for the "outside".
Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, once said at the press conference: "The DM-i super hybrid model we launched is not a plug-in hybrid car, but a fuel vehicle of the same level. The DM-i super hybrid model will have the advantages of fast, provincial, quiet, smooth and green to reduce the dimensionality of traditional fuel vehicles and play the role of 'fuel vehicle subversive'. ”
On January 14, at the media dinner after Weipai released the Mocha DHT-PHEV, Wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motors, revealed in his communication with the auto industry and economic network that Wei did not sell well after the transformation, only because the marketing was not in place. And this point should be learned from Wei Xiaoli. Wei brand does not lack products and technology, taking the phEV category is also right, Wei Jianjun stressed that the next step is to get marketing up. "In another 5 years, the brand value of H6 will be negative. Because the track has changed, you are still a fuel car, and people are new energy. ”
Hybrid vehicles replace fuel vehicles, and there are already plans on the top. An important document issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology ,"Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0", pointed out that by 2035, the new energy vehicle market will account for more than 50%, the number of fuel cell vehicles will reach about 1 million, energy-saving vehicles will be fully hybridized, and the automobile industry will achieve electrification transformation.
But now, in addition to the Japanese system, European and American foreign car companies have basically given up treatment for "hybrid". For example, Volkswagen is fully promoting its pure electric ID. family, and Jaguar says that it will transform into a pure electric vehicle brand. Skip the hybrid and go directly to pure electricity, perhaps not because the technology of the hybrid-specific engine and gearbox is not in place, but largely because they feel that the input-output ratio is not high.
According to the Revised New Deal of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the "Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits", the maximum number of pure electric bicycle points will be reduced from the previous 5 points to 3.4 points from the previous 5 points to 3.4 points from the previous 2 points. That is to say, you: selling a pure electric car can get up to 3.4 points, but the plug and mix can only get 1.6 points.
Now foreign car companies, are relying on the fuel car this "cash cow" to live, then as long as their own pure electric model sales are considerable, then they can continue to rely on the sale of fuel vehicles to make money, rely on pure electric vehicles to earn a point is enough. Moreover, many car companies regard pure electric (BEV) or hydrogen energy (FCV) as the ultimate energy solution, which is not too necessary, and it takes time to spend time on such a "transition plan" as hybrid.
But the problem is also here, the length of the transition period of the hybrid market is not the evolution speed of the engine and gearbox, but depends on the technical iteration of the power battery. As long as the power battery cannot make the endurance and replenishment of pure electric vehicles comparable to fuel vehicles, the hybrid market will still have meat to eat and soup to drink. It is nothing more than eating meat first, and drinking soup after entering the game.
Reference: "Wei Jianjun Disobeys | Auto Sankei", by Chen Hao and Wu Xue
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