International oil prices have fallen from their more than seven-year highs, but the two major geopolitical troubles are expected to continue to be blocked

On Wednesday (January 19), international oil prices rose for the fourth straight day, a new seven-year high, as geopolitical issues in Russia and the United Arab Emirates exacerbated an already tense supply-demand situation, while oil prices narrowed gains as pipelines from Iraq to Turkey were expected to resume normal operations.

At 15:45 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 0.73% to $85.45 / barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.58% to $88.02 / barrel. The two cities hit a new high of $86.41/b since October 9, 2014 and a new high of $89.05/b since Oct. 14, 2014, respectively.

Turkey's state-owned pipeline operator said an explosion in a pipeline system from Kirkuk to Ceyhan at one point caused oil deliveries to be disrupted. But Turkey said the pipeline was expected to return to normal soon. Crude oil is exported from Iraq, the second-largest producer of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey for export.

But the market generally predicts that oil supply will be tight in 2022, in part because demand will still be much better than expected in the face of the highly contagious Opmikharong variant, with some saying oil prices will rebound to $100.

OANDA analyst Edward Moya said in a note: "OPEC+ has not met their production quotas, and if geopolitical tensions continue to heat up, ICE Brent crude may not need much push to reach $100 per barrel." ”

At a time when OPEC+, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, has struggled to meet their agreed goal of increasing supply by 400,000 barrels per day, geopolitical issues in Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer, and the United Arab Emirates, the third-largest oil producer of OPEC, have raised the prospects for supply disruptions.

The UAE on Tuesday (January 18) called on the UN Security Council to convene a meeting to condemn the attack on Abu Dhabi by Yemen's Houthi armed forces the day before. The Saudi-led coalition launched retaliatory airstrikes on the Yemeni capital, Sana'a, killing about 14 people in a building in the city.

Houthi groups attacked the United Arab Emirates on Monday, triggering a tanker truck explosion that killed three people and sparked fires in a commercial and tourist hub near the region's capital, Abu Dhabi Airport. The Houthis have threatened to launch further attacks.

Meanwhile, Russian troops are playing a big game on the Ukrainian border. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Tuesday that germany was ready to discuss stopping the Nord Stream II pipeline if Russia attacked Ukraine. This is Germany's response to increasing pressure at home and abroad.

Vivek Dhar, a commodities analyst at commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note that aviation coal consumption was on the rise as international flights increased, while land traffic was much higher than in the same period last year. "OPEC+ supply constraints and continued growth in global oil demand are likely to give oil prices good support in the coming months."

OPEC officials have said that due to the pick-up in demand and the limited capacity of OPEC+ to increase production, the rally in crude oil prices may further expand in the coming months, possibly even breaking through $100 a barrel.

This article originated from Huitong Network