Liu Jun: Russia uses "fortresses" to hedge against the Western strategic threat

Source: Global Times

Iranian President Lehi visited Russia on January 19, his first foreign trip since taking office last year and the first foreign head of state Putin has met at the Krak Palace this year. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the visit was very important and that the two leaders would discuss cooperation in the economic field, international politics and cooperation in the United Nations and other international organizations. Some media commented that for Russia, this is to further consolidate the strategic posture against US and Western sanctions.

US Secretary of State Blinken went to Kiev on the 18th to express support for Ukraine, and said that he would meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov again on the 21st of this month. On the eve of the russian-US foreign ministers' meeting, Lehi's choice at this point in time to visit Russia obviously has deep strategic significance. Under the situation of continuous escalation of the game with the United States and the West, Russia is combining the experience of the past game with the United States and the West, rationally using its own resources and advantages, and forming differentiated tools to hedge the financial, economic and security threats and challenges of the United States and the West.

In fact, since the 2014 Ukraine crisis, Russia has gradually summarized a normalized anti-sanctions model with Russian characteristics, so that it can maintain relatively stable economic and social development under the pressure of Western sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic. Ruchir Sharma, director of Morgan Stanley's global strategy department, recently wrote in the Financial Times that Putin has created an indestructible "Fortress Russia" strategy for Russia, which is likely to weaken the threat and deterrence of the West. So what are the main tools under this strategy?

The first is the development of a separate payment system, SPFS. In 2014, the Russian Central Bank began developing the financial payment system SPFS as an alternative to the US-led SWIFT International Interbank Settlement System, with the first transaction executed in December 2017. By the end of 2020, more than 400 Russian banks and 23 foreign banks from Armenia, Belarus, Germany, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Switzerland had established contacts with SPFS.

The second is to increase foreign exchange reserves. Since 2014, Russia has increased its foreign exchange reserves and tried to start "de-dollarization", which currently exceeds $620 billion.

Third, in the field of security, in the face of Ukraine's demand to join NATO and the UNITED States' military assistance to Ukraine, Russia has clearly expressed its bottom line, that is, "two resolutely unacceptable": resolutely cannot accept NATO's direct presence around Russia's borders; resolutely cannot accept Western countries to set up military bases in Russia's neighboring countries.

Fourth, in the field of diplomacy and foreign strategy, Russia has also taken the initiative in negotiations with the United States and the West. Although intensive security talks with the United States and the West ended in a stalemate at the beginning of the new year, Russia resumed its permanent institutional ties with NATO and showed its security demands and red lines to the United States and NATO. The talks under the OSCE framework show an international image of Russia's willingness to deal with disputes through diplomatic means.

At the same time, another effective Russian strategy for countering the sanctions and containment of the United States and the West is to strengthen a series of strong bilateral alliances and partnerships: first, with the help of the intervention of the United States and the West in the situation in Belarus, the integration of Russia and Belarus is substantively promoted; second, with the help of the riots in Kazakhstan, through the rapid dispatch of troops and peacekeeping through the organization of collective security organizations, to prevent Western forces from launching a "color revolution" in Kazakhstan; and third, by taking advantage of the visit of leaders, to strive for "fruitful results" in the talks between Russia and Iran in the face of joint sanctions between the United States and the West.

It can be seen that in the face of the situation in Eastern Ukraine and the pressure of NATO's eastward expansion, Russia is effectively resolving the challenges and pressures brought by the United States and the West by ensuring the security of the financial system, planning diplomatic negotiations and security dialogues, and building a solid security alliance and partnership system.

In the eyes of Russia's political elite, today's global politics presents four major trends and profound changes: first, the continued ravages of the new crown epidemic have a huge impact on the world; second, the West is losing the foundation of its five-hundred-year rule; third, the collapse of the Western-dominated liberal economic order formed after World War II; and fourth, the fundamental change in the global balance of power. In response, Sergei Karaganov, dean of the Faculty of World Politics and Economics of the Higher University of Economics of Russia and honorary chairman of the Presidium of the Russian Foreign and Defense Policy Council, proposed that "Russia must become a strong fortress to deal with this very dangerous and unpredictable world".

It should be noted that Russia does not want to fall into the trap of great power confrontation. On the 17th, Lavrov said that "we have not opposed anyone by making peace with China." He stressed to the United States and the West that the development of the partnership between Russia and China is independent and autonomous, and is not concluded out of the containment and suppression of the two countries by the United States and the West, and at the same time it will not establish a military alliance to oppose or harm the strategic interests of the United States and the West. The author believes that after the Cold War, Russia has become very clear about how important it is to maintain regional security and global stability and promote global cooperation and win-win results. (The writer is President of The Shanghai Society of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asia, Executive Director of the Russian Research Center of East China Normal University, a key research base of the Ministry of Education)