Mysteel interpretation: White feathers have not reached the bottom, the industry is moving forward

【Introduction】In 2021, the industry officially entered the stage of de-production, affected by the global inflation chain reaction, feed, coal, veterinary drugs and a series of breeding costs collectively rose, breeding costs climbed to a high level; the terminal consumer market consumption is weak, the wholesale market is flat, the industrial chain alternately loses, how to interpret the upcoming 2022 market? Listen to the perspective within the industry.

An executive of a company in Hebei

In 2021, the slaughtering end showed the first loss in more than ten years, and this loss broke the illusion of many practitioners, so this year's breeding and poultry end of the chicken panning strength is relatively OK. The industry in 2022 may be more serious than the loss in 2021, on the one hand, the amount of breeding poultry has been at a high level, and the cost of newly produced breeding birds is high, and it is difficult to have a cliff-like de-production operation at the end of 2020; on the other hand, the price of pigs is sluggish, suppressing the rebound of chicken consumption, the market is oversupplied, and the price is naturally low; finally, according to the current development of the epidemic situation at home and abroad, the economic regression is an inevitable event, and the funds in the hands of grass-roots consumers must shrink. Consumption is sluggish, feed costs are high, and the supply of wool chickens is excessive, so naturally the industry will not have much benefit next year.

Sales manager of a company in Shandong

In 2022, the slaughter end is likely to be near the breakeven line, and the breeding bird side may have more serious losses. In recent years, the slaughtering end has become more and more vocal in the acquisition of wool chickens, as long as the slaughtering enterprises can maintain the state of the fourth quarter of 2021, in terms of the financial reserve of each enterprise, they can survive the trough period of 2022.

According to the introduction of breeds in recent years, the domestic breeding chickens are at a high level, while farmers will have a long-term empty shed in 2021. For example, the current epidemic situation in Tianjin and Henan has greatly hit the enthusiasm of farmers to supplement the fence, the farmers have slowed down, the supply of chicken seedlings is oversupplied, and the price of seedlings is difficult to improve in a short period of time. In 2022, feed prices will continue to rise, and farmers face such a breeding environment with large risks and small returns. At that time, retail investors will gradually withdraw from the market, and the breeding batches of large breeding enterprises will be reduced accordingly, and in the context of this breeding reduction, the losses of breeding poultry enterprises may be more serious.

A large group company in Liaoning:

Next June may be the lowest point in the industry, bullish after June 2022.

The market trend of the wool chicken can not only focus on the product itself, substitute pigs have an important impact on the poultry market. In addition to the African swine fever period, the trend of pigs and wool chickens is opposite, and other times the wool chickens are basically synchronized with the trend of pigs. As far as the market in 2021 is concerned, consumer inertia consumption is still pork, and our group expects pigs to bottom out in June, so before this, the group has clarified the reduction plan for 2022. After the pig bottomed out, the related business of meat and poultry can continue to expand and develop.

Xiaobian believes that poultry meat production in 2021 has hit a new record high in the mainland, and in the context of the continuous upward supply of live pigs, all kinds of meat consumption are suppressed by it, and the poultry meat industry is the first to bear the brunt. 2022 is a year of de-capacity and also a year of industrial upgrading, and modern and large-scale meat and poultry breeding will enter a big stride forward rhythm this year.