Introduction: The Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, the slaughtering enterprises are gradually coming to an end, what is the price trend of hairy chickens? The stocking before the Spring Festival, how to boost the price of divided products? The price of white feather broiler eggs has risen for 13 consecutive days; the price of white feather chicken seedlings has risen strongly, and the quotation of Shandong Dachang is about to break "5". How to look at the market outlook? Let's take a look
Hatchery profitability has been increasing, and egg prices have risen for 13 consecutive days
Data source: Ganglian data
According to Mysteel agricultural product data tracking, the price of white-feathered broiler eggs has risen for 13 consecutive days since late January, and as of January 31, 2024, the average price of white-feathered broiler eggs in China has risen to 2.62 yuan per bird. And the reason for the inventory: on the one hand, the price of chicks continues to rise, corporate profits continue to increase, although there are some enterprises that the cost of eggs is higher, the risk of the market is greater, there is a wait-and-see mood, but a number of enterprises egg hatching enthusiasm is relatively high; on the other hand, the supply of eggs is not large, and because of the current profitability of chicks, some export egg enterprises, their own hatching increments, so that the supply of eggs is small, especially the quality of eggs, the supply is tight;
Supply and demand two-way support, the price of white feather chicks increased by 303.96%
Data source: Ganglian data
According to Mysteel agricultural product data tracking, the price of white feather chicks has risen from 1.01 yuan/feather to 4.08 yuan/feather (price on February 1) since the resumption of quotation on January 6, and the price of Shandong wind vane factory has risen from 2.20 yuan/feather to 4.80 yuan/ The high position of the feather; and the reasons for the gratifying rise: first, the market seedlings are small, and the supply side supports the rise in the price of chicken seedlings; the second is that the price of chickens is stable after rising, which plays a supporting role in the price of white feather chickens; third, the profitability of the breeding end is better, the current slaughter of the chickens is in a profitable state, and the feed price has been continuously reduced, and the cost of breeding has decreased, which has a certain boost to the sentiment of the breeding end; fourth, the hatching of eggs in small hatching enterprises is not large, and the number of seedlings in small factories is small; fifth, the market has a high empty shed rate, and most of the New Year's Eve chickens are filled, and the demand side is good for the rise in the price of chicken seedlings; Sixth, the head enterprise has a better plan, and the sentiment of raising chicken seedlings is higher, and the price of chicken seedlings has increased greatly。
Supply and demand game, the price of chicken has been stable for half a month
Data source: Ganglian data
As can be seen from the figure above, as of February 1, 2024, the average price of white-feathered broilers in China is 3.96 yuan/ It is reported that in the past half a month, the price of chickens has been in a relatively stable state, the main reason is that supply and demand are in the game stage: in terms of product delivery, the early dealers have been replenished in advance and prepared for the New Year, therefore, the speed of factory products in the past half a month has slowed down, the price of black chickens; In the negative demand stage, the price of hairy chickens has been stable under the supply and demand game.
The Spring Festival stocking stimulated, and the prices of segmented products rose first and then fell
Data source: Ganglian data
According to Mysteel agricultural product data tracking, in the past month, the comprehensive selling price of white feather broiler segmented products rose first and then fell, and maintained stable operation at the end of the month, among them, the monthly average price of frozen large breasts was 8.82 yuan/kg, the monthly average price of large-sized pipa legs was 10.05 yuan/kg, and the monthly comprehensive average price of segmented products was 9557.00 yuan/ton.
It can be seen from the above figure that in the first half of January, the price of segmented products is still running strongly, dealers in the New Year's Day around the notice that the price of the product has bottomed out, superimposed on the follow-up chicken source and supply reduction, there was a wave of small upsurge of goods, the factory homeopathic speculation to ship down the inventory, product prices have also been continuously raised; and in the second half of January, the distribution replenishment around the New Year's Day consumed the price increase momentum before the Spring Festival in advance, the factory shipments slowed down, but the chicken source was reduced synchronously, the product price fell steadily and secretly, and the price was negotiated and shipped; At the end of January, as the factory shutdown time approached, the frozen products maintained a sluggish state, and the fresh goods goods improved to improve, and the fresh orders in the Northeast were once in short supplyDriven by the increase in fresh products, the prices of frozen products have been firm and stable.
Market outlook
From the perspective of the chicken market, the chicken source in the market is still in a tight state next month, and there is a certain support for the price of chicken and chicks;
Judging from the sentiment of the breeding end, there are still many empty sheds in the market, and there is a demand for filling the column at the breeding end;
Judging from the market seedling research, the profitability of chicks is good at this stage, and the enthusiasm of hatching enterprises to hatch eggs is boosted, corresponding to the number of seedlings emerging next month or showing an incremental trend, but affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and some of the new breeders and early moulting breeders have just resumed production, and the supply of eggs may increase, but it will take time for the supply of chicks to increase;
From the point of view of the elimination of breeders, the breeders are still eliminated normally, and the impact on the chicks is not great;
From the perspective of breeding costs, although the cost of feed has been reduced, the cost of chicks has gradually increased, and the profit margin of breeding is average;
Judging from the terminal product shipment, dealers have stocked up in advance, and it is difficult to have a significant boost in the last week before the Spring Festival. Considering various factors, it is expected that there will still be strong support for both the price of chicks and the price of chickens before and after the Spring Festival, or mainly high-level shocks.
Source: MySteel.com