Raising a white-feathered chicken earns 1 cent, and practitioners have survived a difficult year

Finance Associated Press, December 17 (Reporter Xiao Lianghua) The recovery of consumption is less than expected, and the aquaculture practitioners in 2023 are looking forward to rising but it is difficult to rise, and it is difficult to move.

"This year, I raised six batches of chickens (only a batch of social chickens in summer), and if you raise a chicken well, you can earn a dollar, and if you don't raise it well, you will lose money. Liaoning Yingkou City, white-feathered chicken farmers Xiu Liang told the Financial Associated Press reporter that this year's chicken prices are not good, especially in the second half of the year, a bit unexpected. "This year, the situation of friends engaged in breeding is not very good, and pig and cattle raising are not very profitable, and I hope that the market will improve next year. ”

According to Mysteel agricultural product data, as of December 7, 2023, the profit of the breeding end of white feather broilers in 2023 is 0.01 yuan/piece, and the profit of the slaughtering end of white feather broilers in 2023 is 0.05 yuan/piece. The financial reports of listed companies in the white feather chicken industry chain are also high and low: profits in the first half of the year are acceptable, and they continue to decline in the third and fourth quarters.

The pendulum will swing. After three years of repeated grinding, the white feather chicken industry has appeared in the sprouts of deification, and in the coming 2024, practitioners may be able to "collect three or five buckets more".

Wang Xinyu, a chicken industry analyst at Shanghai Ganglian Agricultural Products Division, said that it is expected that the price of white feather broilers will be low and high in 2024, and it will still run at a low level in the first half of the year, and there may be an opportunity to rebound in the second half of the year.

It is difficult to make money raising chickens

This year, the profitability of the white feather broiler industry has been restricted by the downturn on the demand side, even if the profit period is mostly in a "meager profit" situation, especially after entering the fourth quarter, the market downturn has become more and more obvious, and almost the whole industry chain of white feather broilers has entered a loss situation.

The couple raised about 30,000 white-feathered chickens, and the profit margin has been relatively narrow in recent years. "Now the cooperative manufacturers are not making money, so the profit margins we have been compressed, and the survival rate is high and the breeding efficiency is high to make money. Correction Liang said that before the epidemic, when it was good, the profit of raising a chicken could earn three or four yuan, but now it is good to raise more than one piece, and if you don't raise it well, you will lose money, and the risk of social chickens is greater, and it is easy to lose money, so he will not try it easily.

Because of the downturn in the market, the friends around Correction Liang rarely raise social chickens, and increase the number of breeding by upgrading cages. "Originally, they were all used in the way of flat breeding, but now the profits are low, and they have been replaced by cage breeding, and the amount of compensation is the price, and the friends who have not upgraded the cage are basically not raised. The correction is highlighted.

According to Mysteel agricultural product data, the loss period of white feather broiler breeding in 2023 is basically concentrated in January and September-December, with a loss of 3.16 yuan/piece in January and a loss of 2.07 yuan/piece from September to December. The profit of the slaughtering end of white feather broilers in 2023 is 0.05 yuan / piece, this data is calculated based on the production and sales rate of 100% on the same day, if you consider factors such as inventory depreciation and cold storage costs, the actual slaughter profit and loss is negative;

Entering December, the price of white feather broiler chicken has been lower than the low point of 3.5 yuan / kg in early March this year, on December 15, the lowest purchase price of chicken in Shandong was as low as 3.45 yuan, down more than 30% from the high point of 5 yuan / kg this year.

Among other products, the national average price of frozen large breasts and large-sized pipa legs has fallen to the lowest point of the year, down 21.02% and 39.60% from the highest point of the price.

Listed companies open high and go low

The sluggish price of white feather broilers has also dragged down the performance of related enterprises, and the performance of some listed companies in the first half of the year is acceptable, but the second half of the year seems to be no longer beautiful. Among them, Yisheng shares (002458. SZ) made a profit of 565 million yuan in the first half of the year and only 119 million yuan in the third quarter. Xiantan Co., Ltd. (002746. SZ) made a profit of 203 million yuan in the first half of the year, and the profit in the third quarter was only more than 60 million.

"In the first half of this year, the price of chicken products was okay, the company's profits were not bad, the performance in the third quarter was average, and now the price of chicken products is still not good. The relevant person in charge of Xiantan shares told the reporter of the Financial Associated Press.

In mid-December, Xiantan Co., Ltd. announced that the sales revenue of chicken products in November was about 423 million yuan, and the sales volume was 48,400 tons, with year-on-year changes of -13.32% and 5.11%, and month-on-month changes of -17.05% and -10.44% respectively.

At the same time, Yisheng also announced that the number of white feather broiler chicks sold in November was 49.0004 million, and the sales revenue was 159 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -0.38% and -34.50%, and month-on-month changes of -5.89% and -8.25% respectively.

According to the quotation of Yisheng shares and Minhe shares, the latest chick quotation before the suspension of hatching on December 17 was 2 yuan / feather, and this price fell back to the low point of the year again.

It is understood that in the current broiler industry chain, the losses in all aspects of incubation, breeding and slaughtering are relatively serious, and upstream poultry enterprises have pessimistic expectations for the market outlook. At present, superimposed on factors such as weak end market demand, the digestion of product inventory of white feather broilers before the Spring Festival will be limited.

There is hope for 2024

After surviving many chicken cycles, Liang still has hope for the future, "If you lose more, you will have fewer people, and the price may rise." He said, "Now it's just a matter of staying up until the economy recovers and chicken prices pick up, hoping that the market will be better next year." ”

On December 14, Yisheng disclosed the record of investor relations activities, saying that the cost of the company's chicks still has room to decline in the future, and it is expected that the market of commercial chicks will be better than this year.

Yisheng said that from the supply side, affected by the opening of international flights and avian influenza, since May 2022, the introduction of grandparent breeders in the mainland has been small, which will mainly affect the supply of commercial seedlings in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2024.

On the demand side, the relevant person in charge of a domestic white-feathered chicken listing boss said that the development of Western-style fast food chains has led to an increase in the demand for white-feathered broilers; At the same time, the pig industry is expected to improve next year, which will also have a positive impact on the white feather chicken industry, so the industry is generally optimistic about the white feather broiler market in the fourth quarter and next year.

Wang Xinyu shares the same view. He said that after three years of repeated grinding, the white-feathered broiler industry began to sprout the de-production capacity of the industry in the fourth quarter of 2023.

He said that for the trend of the white feather broiler industry next year, it mainly depends on the degree of production capacity reduction and the recovery speed of consumption. From the overall assessment, it is expected that the price of white feather broilers will be low in 2024, and it will still run at a low level in the first half of the year, and there may be an opportunity to rebound in the second half of the year.

(Finance Associated Press reporter Xiao Lianghua)