Hello new and old people (melon-eating masses), welcome to come in and watch.
Today Xiaobian has a more post for everyone to explode the material of the fund circle, put some melons for everyone to eat.
As an insider, the following revelations are all seen with my own eyes
Although it sounds very catchy, it is absolutely fidelity, and if it is false, it can be reported or blocked.
Graph source network
Big melon one
The risk factor of a sharp rise in the market is higher than a big fall
I didn't expect it
。
Who doesn't want the market to rise and rise every day, and the fund to make money every day, but unfortunately that kind of happiness has not been experienced for a long time.
But did you make it? The rapidly rising market is actually full of crises.
Because the market will definitely start to adjust after a period of time.
When most people realize that the market is rising, it is likely to have entered the second half of this wave of rise.
At this time, it is hurriedly squeezed into the market, and there is a high probability of becoming a high-level "receiver", and the cold wind is whizzing
Look at the following chart, which reflects the number of new accounts opened in A-shares and the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index.
The "number of newly opened stock accounts" is often seen as a "retail weather vane", reflecting the willingness of individual investors to participate in the stock market.
(Source: CITIC Securities Research Report)
It can be seen that investor willingness is strongly correlated with the trend of the broader market. And:
In the middle and late stages of a bull market, the number of new investors increases sharply, while the end of a bear market tends to drop to a freezing point before the bull market starts.
On the contrary, the market plunge is not as terrible as imagined.
Xiaobian has done calculations, in the history of A shares several times "turn off the lights to eat noodles" pessimistic market insist on fixed investment and hold so far, the cumulative income is quite ideal ~ real!
Looking at it for a long time, the decline for a period of time is only a small wave in the waves, and the stock market will rise again in the future.
Big melon two
A few trading days contributed most of the year's earnings
In the entertainment circle of Dagua, many excellent actors are not active on the screen all the time, but regularly dedicate fine products, right
For example, a good drama is produced in one or two years, and after it is released, it is the focus and becomes the annual masterpiece.
The same is true of the fund circle, and the market has not always performed. For example, the CSI 300 Index, a few key trading days contributed most of the year's earnings.
If you think it's unbelievable, let's make a calculation of the rise and fall of the CSI 300 Index in the past 20 years:
If the highest 10 trading days are missed, the range yield (annualized) will drop from 7.05% to 4.46%;
If the highest 15 trading days are missed, the range yield (annualized) will fall to 2.93%;
If you go a step further, removing the first 20 trading days with the highest gains, the range yield (annualized) will turn from positive to negative.
(Source: Wind, 1/4/2002 to 12/31/2021)
I also made a diagram for everyone to see more clearly
Source: Wind, 1/4/2002 to 12/31/2021
Range Yield (Annualized) = [(1 + Range Yield) ^ (250 / Trading Days) -1] * 100%
Don't you think it's a good horse?
It is not over, continue to analyze the trading days in the past 20 years when the CSI 300 Index has risen sharply
It can be found that, relatively generally speaking, the market performance on the eve of these trading days is often unsatisfactory.
That is to say, the days of huge declines and the days of huge increases are often close together.
Some less experienced citizens will choose to cut meat in the decline and leave the market, thus missing the subsequent big rise.
Big melon three
The positive returns created by timing are far less than the drag caused by timing
The net value of the fund rises and falls, and the daily redemption price is like a blind box, and everyone wants to offer a good price.
But in fact, the blind box brings more "thrills" than surprises.
In investment, investor return = fund return + investor timing profit and loss.
But more often, timing gains and losses are "pulling back".
The Shanghai Securities Fund Evaluation and Research Center conducted a "Investor Timing And Benefit Analysis" based on funds that have been established for more than 3 years and have a scale of more than 200 million yuan.
The results show that between 2017 and 2019, the return rate of investors on most products lagged behind the product yield.
That is to say, the gain is pulled back by the timing profit and loss
Of course, there are also a few investors who are lucky enough to get returns that exceed the yield of the product.
But further analysis will reveal that the positive returns created by timing are much less than the performance drag caused by timing.
In this part of the few investor returns to leading products, the average timing benefit is between 0.67% and 5.93%;
However, the average time-based loss of this part of the return lag is between 2.34% and 12.9%.
In other words, once the timing fails, it may lose "the sky is dark".
(Source: Shanghai Securities Fund Evaluation and Research Center)
Big melon four
The daily net worth increase was mediocre, but it became a long-term performance champion
In your impression, does the champion fund have to be cool and cool, and earn enough eyeballs?
Have funds with excellent long-term performance all risen very well and jumped high at least for a certain period of time?
Is it difficult for funds that have been tepid and have always controlled the rise and fall in a narrow range to associate them with "champions"?
Xiaobian gives you a breaking news, many long-term performance champions rely on the accumulation of thin water and long-term flow, and some short-term active funds may not necessarily make you earn more in the long run.
For example, suppose five funds behave as follows; each fund invests $10,000 to buy:
Fund A: up 50% in the first year, 40% retraced the following year
Fund B: up 30% in the first year, 20% retraced the following year
Fund C: up 20% in the first year, 10% retraced the following year
Fund D: up 15% in the first year, 5% retraced the following year
Fund E: up 11% in the first year, 1% retraced the following year
And so on, what happens in 10 years?
(For illustration only, not real returns, not representing performance commitments)
It can be seen that ten years later, the most inconspicuous E fund along the way has instead obtained the highest returns and become a long-term performance champion.
And the A fund, which has risen well for many years, has generated large losses.
This melon gives us a revelation that when looking at the fund with a long-term holding mentality, we must not only focus on the gains in a period of time, but also pay attention to the drawdowns and fluctuations.
Not only because a small drawdown can have a better base holding experience, but also because the greater the drawdown and volatility, the more difficult it is to get back to the original level.
Big melon five
The net worth fluctuates back to the point of origin when you got on the car, but you can make money
One day many years ago, you bought a fund for 50,000 yuan with the dream of becoming rich.
Then he forced himself to forget his account password, fantasizing that he could see that his net worth had doubled several times over the years, as reported in the news.
But the actual situation is that after three or five years, I opened the account with great anticipation, and after a few waves of reincarnation, the net value actually returned to the original point, the return was 0, how frustrated and frustrated, and the tears were three thousand feet.
(Illustration only, not real equity)
However, if you can adjust the posture of buying funds slightly, even if the net value returns to the original point, you can still make money.
Why adjust?
It is to divide 50,000 yuan into 5 parts, enter in batches, and when the net value falls, it can accumulate more cheap chips, amortize the cost, and wait until the net value rises back slightly, and then it can turn a loss into a profit.
(For illustration only, not a true net worth situation, does not represent a performance commitment)
This kind of batch entry into the market is the basic principle of fixed investment, you can still choose to "close your eyes" during the base holding period
。 As long as you set the amount and frequency of fixed investment with one click, bind the debit bank card, and you are finished.
There are a lot of melons in the fund circle, and I am afraid that you will not be able to digest it at one time, so I will say these things first and continue to be more.
Xiaobian chose to blow up these materials, not to attract traffic, nor to collect money for soft text promotion.
Purely can't see it, the kindness is great, and he wants to save many friends who are green-faced.
If you don't believe it, you can wait for the time to verify, and then you will come back to "dig the grave", give me a thumbs up, and first code ~
Risk Warning
The views of this material are for informational purposes only and are not intended as any legal documents, and all information in the materials or opinions expressed do not constitute the final operational advice of investment, law, accounting or taxation, and the company does not make any guarantee for the final operational advice with respect to the contents of the materials. In no event shall the Company be liable to any person for any loss arising from the use of any content in this material. The above does not constitute a recommendation for individual stocks. The past performance of the Fund and the level of its net worth are not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the Fund Manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the Fund. The Manager does not guarantee profitability and does not guarantee a minimum return. Investors should fully understand the difference between the fund's regular fixed investment and zero deposit and withdrawal and other saving methods. Regular fixed investment is a simple and easy way to guide investors to make long-term investments and average investment costs. However, regular fixed investment does not avoid the risks inherent in fund investment, does not guarantee that investors will receive returns, and is not an equivalent financial management method that replaces savings. The market is risky and caution should be exercised when entering the market.