Many places launched the "investment battle" in 2022, and Henan and Anhui strive to increase fixed investment by 10% year-on-year

21st Century Business Herald reporter Chen Jie intern Hu Qing reported from Guangzhou

In 2022, infrastructure will become one of the important starting points for "steady growth".

On January 17, Wang Zhengpu, acting governor of Hebei Province, delivered a government work report at the Fifth Session of the 13th National People's Congress of Hebei Province, repeatedly mentioning the word "investment". According to the arrangement of Hebei Province, it is necessary to effectively expand investment in 2022, and the annual provincial and municipal key projects will complete an investment of more than 800 billion yuan. In 2022, Hebei expects fixed asset investment to grow by 6.5%.

Hebei is not the only province to propose "expanding investment". The Work Report of the Chongqing Municipal People's Government released on January 17 also proposed to actively expand effective investment, grasp the amount of infrastructure investment, deeply implement the special action of grasping project stabilization investment, and focus on the layout of a number of major projects in the fields of "two new and one heavy", urban renewal, and people's livelihood. In 2022, Chongqing's fixed asset investment will increase by about 6%.

Previously, Henan released a government work report, which clearly proposed that fixed asset investment increased by 10% in 2022. Anhui also proposed that fixed asset investment should strive to increase by more than 10% in 2022.

Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Policy Science Research Association, told the 21st Century Business Herald that to stabilize growth in 2022, we must first stabilize investment.

"Compared with 2021, the landing of projects in various places will accelerate in 2022." Xu Hongcai said, "However, from the first half of the year in 2022, due to risk considerations, the landing of projects is still relatively cautious." ”

Where is the investment going?

Just at the beginning of 2022, the two sessions held in various places have already revealed signs of investment "acceleration".

At the Henan people's conference held on January 6, the government work report was disclosed, and "investment" was mentioned 17 times. Henan proposes to focus on expanding effective investment in 2022. Continue to promote the "three batches", and complete the investment in fixed assets of 2.8 trillion yuan throughout the year, of which 1.8 trillion yuan is invested in projects of more than 100 million yuan. Industrial investment of 850 billion yuan, an increase of more than 10%, technological transformation investment increased by more than 20%.

Beijing, which also disclosed the government work report on January 6, proposed to give play to the leading role of government investment, appropriately arrange a number of infrastructure projects ahead of schedule, and strive to expand effective investment. Among them, it is necessary to develop the sub-center of the city with high quality and continue to maintain the investment intensity of 100 billion.

On January 17, Chongqing, Hunan, Anhui and Hebei held people's congresses, and the government work report also arranged investment in 2022.

In addition to Hebei and Chongqing, Hunan proposed to actively expand effective investment, and fixed asset investment increased by 7.5%. Anhui proposed to launch an effective investment battle and strive to increase fixed assets by more than 10% in 2022.

In addition to provinces, some trillion GDP cities have also arranged investment in 2022 in the latest government work report. For example, Foshan proposed to continue to expand effective investment and arrange investment in provincial and municipal key projects of more than 100 billion yuan. Quanzhou proposed that fixed asset investment increase by 6.5%. Implement 633 key projects under construction, and complete an annual investment of more than 170 billion yuan. Hefei proposed that fixed asset investment increase by more than 9% in 2022.

The key behind the acceleration of investment is to "stabilize growth". In the latest government work report in Hunan, it was proposed that "as far as this year is concerned, stability is victory."

"In 2022, among the steady growth of various places, infrastructure construction is the most stable. In the troika, exports will weaken their contribution to the economy in 2022. Under the influence of the epidemic, the recovery of consumption is not fast, and it can only rely on investment and infrastructure, so there should be many projects in the past two years. Sun Buyu, vice president of the South China Urban Research Association, pointed out.

So, from the perspective of local arrangements, where will the investment be invested?

Rail transit is an important part of the investment. Henan proposed to complete and operate Zhengzhou South Railway Station and Zhengpu Section of Zhengji High-speed Railway, and start construction of Zhengzhou Hub Xiaolizhuang Station, Hunan High-speed Railway Jiaoji Luoping Section, Pingluozhou High-Speed Railway, Beijing-Hong Kong-Taiwan High-speed Railway Xiong'an to Shangqiu Section, S2 Line Jialuhe to Dengfeng Section.

Other infrastructure is also a priority. Henan proposed to implement energy projects such as the middle section of the third line of west-to-east gas transmission, the large coal reserve base in the Central Plains, the Central Plains Gas Storage Reservoir Group, the Pumped Storage Power Stations in Lushan and Huixian, and the rooftop photovoltaic power generation in the whole county。 Beijing proposed that in the construction of urban sub-centers, it is necessary to promote the construction of key projects such as three major cultural facilities and the transformation of the East Sixth Ring Road.

Industrial investment has also become the focus of many places. For example, Chongqing proposed to do a good job in industrial investment to improve quality and efficiency, and use the industrial chain to attract investment to guide enterprises to increase investment in equipment renewal and technological transformation.

Then there are new infrastructure projects. Hebei proposed to focus on ten key areas such as "three major events", "two new and one heavy", scientific and technological innovation, transformation and upgrading.

"From the perspective of the investment direction of new infrastructure, new energy vehicles and biomedicine have attracted a lot of investment. In traditional infrastructure projects, rail transit, power stations, intercity railways, etc. are the focus of investment. Sun Bushu pointed out that many so-called new infrastructure is still just a concept and cannot yet form effective investment.

All localities are making every effort to "stabilize growth"

However, judging from the landing of projects in various places in the past two months, the situation of infrastructure "power" is not obvious.

Soochow Securities pointed out in the research report released on January 16 that since the beginning of 2022, the market has continued to pay attention to the action and effect of stable growth of policies. Judging from the clues such as construction company orders and regional cement inventory, the growth rate of orders for construction companies has stabilized in December 2021, but the rebound is not obvious. In addition, historically, the cement storage capacity ratio in the northwest region and the growth rate of infrastructure investment have a relatively obvious inverse relationship, and it is judged that the monthly growth rate of infrastructure investment in December 2021 is not optimistic.

"At present, all localities are more cautious about the landing of investment. In 2021, the fiscal revenue of various localities will grow rapidly, but investment cannot be 'big and fast', and risks need to be considered. Under the background of great downward pressure on the economy, how to make money for investment projects and what is the return on investment? You can't do it recklessly, so many places are still 'holding the coin and waiting'. Xu Hongcai pointed out.

However, on the whole, infrastructure construction can still be expected in 2022, which will also drive the upstream and downstream industrial chains and further support the economy.

"Infrastructure will have a clear support for the cement market in 2022, but whether prices can strengthen still depends on the real estate market." The cement market has a total of three demand areas, real estate, infrastructure and people's livelihood, before, real estate accounted for about 50%, infrastructure only 20%-30%, and in 2021 infrastructure in the cement market demand accounted for 40%-50%. Hou Linlin, a cement industry analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.

Hou Linlin pointed out that the construction cycle of large projects is long, generally taking 2, 3 years or even longer, so many "14th Five-Year Plan" projects need to start construction in 2022, plus some places such as Shandong this winter is not cold, many projects are not planned to stop work during the Spring Festival, forming a great support for cement demand in the off-season.

Only by stabilizing economic growth can employment be stabilized. For example, Henan proposed that 1.1 million new jobs will be created in cities and towns in 2022, 400,000 new rural labor transfer jobs, and 2.4 million new skilled talents. Chongqing proposed that 751,000 new jobs were created in cities and towns throughout the year, and the unemployment rate in urban surveys should be controlled within 5.5%. Hebei proposed that 860,000 new jobs be created in cities and towns.

Xu Hongcai also pointed out that the focus of the economy in 2022 is to stabilize investment, and the other is to stabilize employment. "Exports will contribute so much to the economy in 2021, but it's not sustainable. Exports must be normalized. Under such a background, stable employment is also stable economy, that is, stabilizing consumption. It is not easy to increase consumption, but employment can not stabilize consumption will fall significantly. ”

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