Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, editor Zhou Xinyang) news, Guotai Junan International released a research report on Tuesday (January 18), optimistic about the growth opportunities of the automotive industry in 2022, the parts industry is expected to outperform the automotive industry chain. They give investment advice for the automotive industry, giving priority to parts > OEMs> dealers, and recommending to seize the theme of investment in autonomous driving.
The report first introduced Nexteer (01316.HK), Xiaopeng Motors (09868.HK) and Zhongsheng Holdings (00881.HK).
Guotai Junan International is optimistic about the performance growth of the parts industry. As supply chain issues ease, vehicle production will continue to climb.
IHS forecasts that global light vehicle production will increase by 9% year-on-year from 75.5 million units in 2021 to 82.3 million units in 2022; chip supply, which is expected to return to normal in 2023, is expected to drive production to 90.6 million units, +10% year-on-year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in 2019; and light vehicle production will be mainly determined by the supply of automotive-grade chips by at least 2023.
Considering the global channel replenishment inventory demand, and the delayed new vehicles will be restarted and put into production in 2022, they expect OEM shipments to remain strong in 2022. In order to cope with potential supply chain risks, it is expected that OEMs will also increase parts inventory to benefit parts suppliers. Coupled with the decline in logistics and raw material costs, it is more optimistic about the performance growth of the parts industry in 2022.
The increase in terminal preferential margins will add impetus to the growth of retail sales in 2022. The federation's wholesale sales of passenger cars in December 2021 were 2.366 million units, +2.2% year-on-year, +10.0% month-on-month, and retail sales were 2.105 million units, up from -8.0% year-on-year and +15.9% month-on-month.
They believe that the historical month-on-month growth rate of the batch zero in December reflects the stronger production and sales after the recovery of the automotive supply chain, while the temporary lag of the retail side is mainly due to the lower inventory of the channel and the resulting low preferential margin. In 2022, after channel inventories return to normal, the recovery of preferential margins will add impetus to retail sales growth.
Oem sales targets for 2022 are optimistic. Caucus expects passenger car sales of 23 million units to be +7% year-on-year in 2022. Hong Kong-listed OEMs Dongfeng (00489.HK), GAC (02238.HK), Geely (00175.HK) and Great Wall (02333.HK) have a sales target growth rate of 25%, 15%, 24% and 48% respectively in 2022, all better than the industry, reflecting optimistic expectations.
Under the general direction of macroeconomic growth under pressure and stable policy growth, they expect that the policy of promoting automobile consumption will be basically maintained. Coupled with positive factors such as inventory replenishment, low base, supply chain recovery, and personalized travel demand in the post-epidemic period, the research report is optimistic about sales growth in 2022, optimistic about the opening and high growth in the second half of the year.