Per reporter: Zhu Chengxiang Per editor: Liang Xiao
In 2021, "shortage" is the key word for lithium battery materials. From VC additives vinylene carbonate to lithium hexafluorophosphate, from positive and negative electrode materials, electrolytes to more upstream chemical raw materials, lithium ore... The wind of shortage of goods is rising, and the sound of price increases is endless.
In the secondary market, lithium battery material related listed companies are also sought after by investors. Taking VC additive manufacturer Yongtai Technology (002326, SZ) as an example, the stage increase from July 1 to October 22 was as high as 249.67%.
The supply gap brought about by the hot demand for lithium battery materials and the hot market in the secondary market have also attracted the attention of traditional chemical companies. For a time, phosphorus chemical enterprises, titanium dioxide faucets have entered the lithium iron phosphate cathode, and even Taihe Technology (300801, SZ), which is mainly engaged in water treatment additives, and Conch Entrepreneurship (00586, HK), which is mainly engaged in waste heat power generation, have also entered the game.
In fact, the lithium iron phosphate cathode has been a price war due to overcapacity in the past few years, and a large number of chemical companies have cross-border layout of lithium iron phosphate cathode, which has also triggered the industry's concerns about future overcapacity.
Huang Yi, an analyst at the Head Leopard Research Institute, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter: "In the short term, due to factors such as slow capacity expansion and surging market demand, the market will maintain a tight balance between supply and demand. However, in the long run, with the rapid expansion of lithium iron phosphate enterprises and the continuous entry of chemical companies, lithium iron phosphate production capacity may appear to be excessive. ”
<h2>Is the age of lithium iron phosphate coming? </h2>
According to the data of the Head Leopard Research Institute, in 2020, the domestic lithium iron phosphate cathode material leader is German Nano (300769, SZ), which has a production capacity of 40,000 tons and ranks first in the domestic lithium iron phosphate cathode material market with a ratio of 21%. According to the 2020 annual report of German Nano, the company's lithium battery cathode material production capacity (that is, lithium iron phosphate cathode) production capacity is 38,580 tons, the capacity utilization rate is 84.12%, the actual output is 32,500 tons, and the sales volume is 30,700 tons.
Entering 2021, the explosion of lithium iron phosphate batteries has caused the production and sales of lithium iron phosphate cathode to soar. According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, from January to August 2021, the cumulative output of lithium iron phosphate batteries in China was 58.1GWh, an increase of 301.8% year-on-year. According to the research report of Caixin Securities, in September 2021, lithium iron phosphate batteries loaded a total of 9.54GWh, up 309.30% year-on-year, up 32.26% month-on-month, lithium iron phosphate batteries for three consecutive months in terms of installed capacity ahead of ternary batteries.
In terms of lithium battery cathode materials, the 2021 semi-annual report of German Nano shows that the listed company sold 31,100 tons of lithium iron phosphate in the first half of the year, an increase of 191.87% year-on-year, and the sales volume in the first half of 2021 exceeded the sales volume in 2020.
On the one hand, the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries has soared, the installed capacity continues to exceed the ternary battery, and the lithium battery industry has ushered in the "lithium iron phosphate era"; on the other hand, the technical difficulty of the lithium iron phosphate cathode is lower than that of the ternary cathode. Huang Yi told reporters: "Compared with the ternary cathode, the lithium iron phosphate cathode is less technically difficult and the production barrier is lower. ”
For a number of enterprises to cross-border into the field of lithium iron phosphate cathode, Huang Yi believes: "The new energy automobile industry is growing rapidly, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries is strong. Most of the cross-border enterprises are chemical enterprises, which have the basis of large-scale production or they (which they can provide) are raw materials for the power battery industry chain. ”
<h2>The big chemical industry set off a cross-border tide, and a number of listed leaders entered the game</h2>
Stimulated by the demand side, Lithium Iron Phosphate Cathode manufacturers such as German Nano are actively expanding their production capacity. According to the 2021 semi-annual report of German Nano, the company has completed the construction of nano lithium iron phosphate production capacity (excluding projects under construction and planned capacity) of about 120,000 tons / year. In addition, German Nano intends to sign a joint venture agreement with lithium battery manufacturer Ewell Lithium Energy (300014, SZ), with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons.
In addition, the company has also reached a preliminary cooperation intention with the management committee of Qujing Economic and Technological Development Zone, and intends to invest in the construction of a production base with an annual output of 150,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate. The base includes a joint venture with Ewell Lithium Energy with an annual output of 100,000 tons, and the preliminary planning of the remaining 50,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate production capacity is independently implemented by German Nano.
In 2020, the sales volume of the German nano lithium iron phosphate cathode was only 30,700 tons, and as a result, the production capacity was rapidly pulled to an annual output of 120,000 tons in the first half of 2021, and the annual production capacity of 150,000 tons was planned.
What is even more surprising is the "surging" cross-border layout of chemical companies, especially the two titanium dioxide "double males" of China Nuclear Titanium Dioxide (002145, SZ) and Longbai Group (002601, SZ).
On February 4, 2021, CNNC Titanium Dioxide announced that the company intends to invest in the construction of a project with an annual output of 500,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate. As soon as the news came out, it immediately triggered a hot discussion in the industry. After all, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2020 is only 24.4GWh, and according to GGII quotation data, domestic lithium iron phosphate cathode shipments in 2020 are only 124,000 tons.
On August 13, 2021, Longbai Group announced that the company intends to invest in the construction of a 200,000-ton lithium iron phosphate project. On October 19, the "Daily Economic News" reporter called the office of the secretary of the board of directors of Longbai Group as a private equity researcher, for the company as a titanium dioxide manufacturer cross-border production of lithium iron phosphate cathode what advantages, and whether the company has related technology accumulation, its staff said: "(lithium iron phosphate cathode) itself technology is not particularly complex, our advantages are mainly two points, one is the cost, sulfuric acid titanium dioxide has a by-product called ferrous sulfate, which can be used as a raw material for iron phosphate; the second is as a large chemical enterprise." , has a large chemical production line, that is, the advantages of large chemical industry. Iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate production lines are much simpler than titanium dioxide production lines. ”
Not only the titanium dioxide faucet, MDI faucet Wanhua Chemical (600309, SH) also came. On September 9, the Management Committee of Meishan High-tech Industrial Park made the first public announcement of the environmental impact assessment of Wanhua Chemical (Sichuan) Co., Ltd. "50,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate lithium battery cathode material integration project". The construction of the project includes 50,000 tons / year of iron phosphate, 50,000 tons / year of lithium iron phosphate.
According to the disclosure of Conch Venture on October 10, the company and the Anhui Wuhu Economic Development Zone Management Committee signed an investment agreement on the lithium iron phosphate cathode material project, of which the first phase of the project investment of about 1 billion yuan, planning to build an annual output of 50,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode material project and supporting facilities, planned to start construction within this year, before the end of next year to put into production. In the later stage, the company will plan to build a cathode material project with an annual output of 500,000 tons of high-performance lithium iron phosphate new energy battery according to the market situation and the specific approval progress of the project. It is reported that conch entrepreneurship and cement leader conch cement are both enterprises under Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd.
On the evening of October 15, the water treatment agent Taihe Technology disclosed that the company intends to set up a subsidiary and build a high-end cathode material project with an annual output of 10,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate.
<h2>Technical difficulty and barriers to entry</h2>
It can be seen that the heat of lithium iron phosphate batteries has attracted all kinds of chemical companies and even non-chemical industry enterprises to enter the game, titanium dioxide faucets, MDI faucets and even water treatment pharmaceutical manufacturers have crossed borders, intending to share a piece of the tide of the vigorous development of lithium iron phosphate.
So, is the technical threshold of lithium iron phosphate cathode high? Is it difficult to cross-border entry?
In this regard, on October 19, the Daily Economic News reporter called Taihe Technology as a private equity researcher, and the staff of its securities department said: "We are more optimistic about the new energy industry, and we have laid out the new energy industry in the early stage." For the technical source and technical threshold, the staff member said: "Our company has a research and development team, and also asks teachers from universities and research institutes for advice." I heard that the technology is very simple, but we don't know the technology very well, and we don't understand it very well. ”
Previously, industry insiders told reporters that some larger chemical companies entered the cathode production of lithium iron phosphate, which would have more advantages in cost. Longbai Group staff also said: "First of all, we are also a large chemical enterprise, and secondly, you can see that since lithium iron phosphate batteries have been sought after, many of them have turned in this direction are titanium dioxide companies, the main reason is the titanium dioxide by-product ferrous sulfate. Ferrous sulfate was previously mainly used for ferrous pigments, such as iron yellow, iron black, and feed grade ferrous sulfate, relatively speaking, the added value is not as high as iron sulfate. ”
For the use of by-product ferrous sulfate as a raw material for production, is it more costly than The German Nano, Beiterui (835185, NQ) and other enterprises have more advantages? The staff member said: "It must have certain (cost) advantages and resources, at the beginning I emphasized the cost advantage, otherwise there would not be so many titanium dioxide industry companies suddenly announced into the production of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate." ”
For the enterprises have planned huge production capacity, will not cause future overcapacity, Longbai Group staff said: "First of all, planning production capacity is only planning, as far as our company is concerned, 200,000 tons is also to be built in three phases." According to the full schedule of construction periods, it will take at least two years for the construction of the third phase. On the demand side, the market is indeed relatively hot. ”
As for whether phosphorus chemical and titanium dioxide enterprises have the advantages of the industrial chain, You Haokun, an analyst at the Leopard Research Institute, said: "Most of the chemical companies have the main raw material production capacity of the upstream of the lithium iron phosphate industry chain, such as phosphorus sources and iron sources. Most titanium dioxide companies choose to cross-border because titanium dioxide by-product ferrous sulfate can be refined into battery-grade lithium iron phosphate raw materials. ”
You Haokun believes: "The advantages of phosphorus chemical companies entering lithium iron phosphate are also significant. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream of the phosphorus chemical industry chain starts from phosphate ore, and the midstream product phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus can be prepared by sulfuric acid soaking and heating. These products will eventually be made into monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, glyphosate, lithium iron phosphate and other products. Phosphorus chemical enterprises can provide raw material guarantee for the large-scale development of iron phosphate. At the same time, some of the technical routes of lithium iron phosphate are similar to the traditional phosphorus chemical technology routes, and enterprises can save certain equipment costs, so phosphorus chemical enterprises turn to the production of lithium iron phosphate and have more cost advantages. ”
So, will the cross-border of traditional chemical companies have an impact on lithium iron phosphate cathode manufacturers? On October 19, the staff of the german nano board secretary office replied to reporters: "Everyone also sees that the demand is relatively large before doing it." I don't know much about whether they have the technology, it may be that there is a plan to do it first, and the technology will either be bought from outside or need to be developed. At present, our technology is exclusive, and we are the only one on the market doing liquid phase method. ”
According to the data provided by Wisdom Bud, as of now, Defang Nano and its affiliates have more than 116 published patent applications in 126 countries/regions around the world, with 57 valid patents. The vast majority of its patents are related to lithium batteries and their manufacturing processes. From the company's patent keyword analysis, there are more than 68 patents related to lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Image source: Wisdom Bud provides
For the future of the industry, You Haokun believes: "In the future, China's lithium iron phosphate cathode material market will form a benign competition situation dominated by technology and upstream and downstream resources of the industrial chain, and the market will gradually concentrate on the head enterprises with technical and industrial chain resource advantages." From a long-term point of view, the industry has a high threshold, if the company only rubs the heat, grasp the hot spots, the long-term will face the possibility of being forced to clear. ”
<h2>Lithium resources are the real bottleneck</h2>
It is worth noting that although major chemical companies have planned a huge lithium iron phosphate cathode production capacity, the real bottleneck is lithium ore. It is reported that the preparation method of lithium iron phosphate is mainly divided into solid phase method and liquid phase method, of which solid phase method accounts for more than 80%. Taking the solid-phase method as an example, the cost of battery-grade lithium carbonate accounts for about 50%, and the cost of precursor ferric phosphate accounts for about 30%.
The layout of these large chemical companies such as China Nuclear Titanium Dioxide, Longbai Group, and Wanhua Chemical are all lithium iron phosphate and precursor iron phosphate, and there is no mention of how to obtain battery-grade lithium carbonate.
In this regard, the staff of the above-mentioned Longbai Group said: "We need to purchase phosphate ore, lithium ore, after the purchase of phosphate ore, there is an independent preparation of phosphoric acid equipment, and after the purchase of lithium ore, you can also independently produce lithium carbonate." Therefore, the resources we need are only the most upstream minerals, and if there is a good (mineral) target in the future, we will not rule out the acquisition of related mineral resources, just like our layout in the titanium dioxide industry. ”
You Haokun said: "Lithium batteries' core upstream raw material lithium resources, due to the industry attributes lead to a long mining cycle, the current planned new capacity is expected to be difficult to put into use in the short term. ”
Huang Yi believes: "The upstream lithium supply concentrate of battery-grade lithium carbonate may have tight supply and shortage. The expansion of global lithium concentrate is slow. According to the data released by the IGO, among the potential new lithium resources in the world, the third phase of the Greenbushes project will be postponed to 2024 to 2025, other production mines in Western Australia have no new capacity plans, and MtHolland will start the construction of mines, concentrators and smelters in the second half of 2021, and is expected to be put into operation in 2024. Therefore, in the next two to three years, the global lithium ore supply is still in a tight state of supply shortage, and lithium concentrate prices will continue to maintain a high and rising trend. ”
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