Author / Intelligence Service Forecasting Panel of Experts
【Box Office Prediction】
The Dune Saga
Schedule: October 22
First day forecast: 0.32 billion →.4 billion
Cumulative forecast: 280 million → 280 million
General trend: basically flat
"Dune," which was first released overseas in mid-September, will finally land on the Chinese mainland market this week. The story of the new version of Dune revolves around the future world, in addition to "Sweet Tea" Timothy Chalame, the main actors also include Zandaya, "Thanos" Josh Brolin, "Aquaman" Jason Momma, Rebecca Ferguson, Oscar Isaac, Javier Baden, "Destroyer" Dave Battista, British old drama bone Charlotte Ramplin, Swedish old drama bone Stranskasgard and Chinese star Zhang Zhen. The soundtrack will also be composed by composer Hans Zimmer.
From the overseas word of mouth, it can be seen that this film is relatively more commercial than director Villeneuve's previous works, and after nearly two months of leaving Hollywood, this film can also enjoy a certain type dividend, and it is not difficult to achieve a box office performance of 200 million+. With the launch of the IMAX 2D version of the second number, the standard problem that was previously criticized by the fan group has finally been solved, and it also has a certain role in promoting the reputation of fans of this film.
"Uninvited Guest" cat's eye
First day forecast: 0.09 billion → 0.06 billion
Cumulative forecast: 0.45 billion → 0.7 billion
General Trend: Significantly higher
From the perspective of the lineup, "Uninvited Guest" is produced by Tian Zhuangzhuang and directed by newcomer director Liu Xiang, gathering Fan Wei, Dou Xiao, Zhang Songwen, Zhu Zhu and other acting actors, with a certain degree of color guarantee. From a genre point of view, this film begins with a strange dou chamber murder case, telling a confusing crisis, which belongs to the suspense comedy and has a certain attraction.
In addition, from last week to this week, the film also opened a large-scale screening, as a rare film in the recent year in the cold period to dare to order the film, this film may also have a high reputation confidence, very much hope to advance to the 70 million yuan box office mark.
"The First Incense" Ticket taobao & Hehe
First day forecast: 0.12 billion → 0.1 billion
Cumulative forecast: 0.5 billion → 0.46 billion
General Trend: Slightly downward
Although it has a strong cast of actors and producers, "First Incense" is still difficult to break 100 million.
"The First Incense" was first premiered at the Venice Film Festival on September 8, 2020, and announced that it would be released in 2021 at the National Cinema Domestic Film Promotion Conference held on October 3 of the same year.
Furthermore, the industry is concerned about whether "First Incense" can break through the box office ceiling of Xu Anhua's high-quality literary and art films. From "Sister Peach" in 2012, to "Golden Age" in 2014, and then to "When is the Bright Moon" in 2017, the literary and art films directed by Xu Anhua are all "strong actors + strong behind the scenes", but the highest mainland box office only fell on 70.37 million.
However, from the current popularity of the film and the fan group to its casting, word of mouth and marketing methods, there is no small hostility, which also makes it difficult for this film to break through Xu Anhua's highest box office performance.
"Operation Extreme Theft" is sourced
First day forecast: 0.04 billion → 0.01 billion
Cumulative forecast: 0.16 billion → 0.06 billion
General Trend: Significant downward revision
Although it has a good commerciality, but considering its country and language restrictions, the probability of breaking through in October in a small piece is not high, and the current publicity of this film is weak, and the probability is reduced to cannon fodder in the file.
007: No Time to Die Global
Schedule: October 29
First day forecast: 0.75 billion
Cumulative forecast: 480 million → 480 million
"007: No Time to Die," which was originally scheduled to be released on October 25, 2019, was finally postponed for two full years to October 2021 because of the epidemic. Although MGM, the copyright holder of the "007" series, has been acquired by Amazon, the film still maintains the advantage of a single shot in theaters. In addition, the distribution company of this film was also replaced by the original Sony Pictures to the current Universal Pictures. In addition to the original stars in the original series such as Daniel Craig, Ralph Fiennes, Naomi Harris, Leia Saidu, Ben Whishaw, etc., Anna de Armas, Rashner Lynch, and this year's "Oscar" Rami Marek joined.
Because of the existence of Universal Beijing Resort, Universal's public relations with government departments have remained good this year, which may be the reason why the film can be scheduled more than a month in advance. In addition, as Universal's first film after the opening of Universal Resort, the film may also be like most Disney movies, and the premiere of the Chinese mainland in the park will also make the film receive more attention. However, all the main creators of the film will certainly not attend the event, and under the current anti-epidemic situation of Chinese mainland, at least in the next year, Hollywood films will still have no access to the mainland publicity path. Judging from the current overseas reputation of the film and the 163-minute length of the film, although it is difficult to break through the box office performance of the previous work "Ghost Party" of 541 million+, there is still great hope for achieving a box office performance of about 400-500 million.
"Entering the Mortician" ticket shopping
First day forecast: 0.03 million
Cumulative forecast: 0.25 billion → 0.25 billion
After more than half a year of official introduction, "Entering the Mortician Division" finally determined the mainland schedule.
"Entering the Mortician Division" is directed by the famous Japanese director Yojiro Takita, starring Masahiro Motoki, Ryoko Hiromi, and Tsutomu Yamazaki. Released in Japan in 2008, the film has won 10 awards at the Japan Academy Awards and the Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film. In 2010, when Premier Wen visited Japan, he also specifically mentioned this film, which contributed to the warming of Sino-Japanese relations. At present, the Douban score of the film is as high as 8.9 points, ranking 111th in the Douban TOP250. It is reported that the film was introduced and distributed by Yongkang Yinglin Film and Television.
Although the film has a high reputation, the current October-November schedule environment is also more friendly for the batch of films, but we believe that the film is still difficult to break through the 20 million box office mark.
"Wuhai" giant run
First day forecast: 0.05 billion
Cumulative forecast: 0.24 billion → 0.24 billion
As a literary and art film, "Old Beast" director Zhou Ziyang's new work "Wuhai" was once scheduled for the Dragon Boat Festival, and then regrettably withdrawn, although it has an important role in the two blockbuster films of the National Day file, But Huang Xuan still lacks a certain degree of single resistance strength.
"I Am the Guardian" film association
First day forecast: 0.02 billion
Cumulative forecast: 0.1 billion → 0.08 billion
This film, which was hastily scheduled for September 10 and then hastily withdrawn, even if it is changed to a schedule, it is still difficult to break through in the sea of small pieces.
"Fame and Fame" Cat's Eye & Wanhe Tianyi
Schedule: November 11
Cumulative forecast: 0.6 billion
"Fame and Fame", which was scheduled more than six months in advance, still can't escape the fate of the two films "Door Lock" and "Railway Hero" in the same file period, and the current pre-screening heat of the film has not received too many bonuses because the film is set ahead.
Director Liu Xunzimo is a web drama director, with wanhe Tianyi's series of web drama "Report Boss" to become famous, "Yang Ming Li Wan" is the first film work he directed, and there are also wan wan team figures in the main creative lineup of "Yang Ming Li Wan", such as Zhang Benyu, Kodak and other old friends. At the same time, the cast also includes Yin Zheng, Deng Jiajia, Yu Entai, Yang Haoyu, Chen Minghao, Qin Xiaoxian and so on.
However, the film dares to be scheduled in advance to Thursday, November 11, presumably also has a high reputation confidence, and may have an unexpected market performance.
"Mei Yanfang" is happy
Schedule: November 12
Cumulative forecast: 0.7 billion → 0.85 billion
General Trend: Slightly increased
The film "Mei Yanfang" was created and produced by Jiang Zhiqiang's Anle Pictures, directed by Liang Lemin. This film tells the story of Mei Yanfang's legendary life from being born poor to a star-studded generation of divas, and finally bidding farewell to the stage. In the film, the role of Mei Yanfang is played by newcomer actor Wang Dani, who is a model, which is also her first time to appear in the movie.
The film's director, Leung Lok Man, is the best director winner of the Hong Kong Film Awards, and his co-directing and screenplaying of the "Cold War" series with his partner Lu Jianqing has previously achieved good market results. However, although the audience loves Mui Yanfang herself, considering the previous market performance of Hong Kong drama films in the mainland, it is difficult for "Mui Yanfang" to achieve particularly high market results this time.
"The Wonders of Immortality" shines
Cumulative forecast: 0.18 billion
"The Strange Affair of Immortality" is written by Wang Shuo, directed by young director Xu Chao, and starring Wang Chuanjun and Wang Luodan. The film first appeared at the Shanghai Film Festival in June 2017 and was unveiled at the film list launch of Time Impact Pictures. A year and a half later, in October 2018, the film held a launch conference in Beijing and officially started shooting in February 2019. In addition, the film was also shortlisted for the 2019 Beijing Publicity and Culture Guidance Fund's Young Film Talent Creation Support Project, and won the funding award.
A year ago, on October 28, the film officially released the final trailer and poster, announcing that it will be finalized on January 22, 2021. However, in the next two months, in addition to the patch trailer patch part of the New Year film, the film did not carry out any other publicity action, but also planted the seed for the withdrawal of the film.
This time again set, the film's trailer performance and popularity are still relatively general, and it may be difficult to make too much breakthrough at the box office.
Member of the Box Office OfFilm Prediction Experts
Sedum I: A professional movie box office bar bar owner, senior box office enthusiasts
Sushi Snail: A professional movie box office bar owner, senior box office enthusiast
Colin: Chief Data Analyst at a line production company
Cola Lee: Chief analyst of a first-line film data company
52: Planned by a certain line of film publicity and distribution companies, senior box office enthusiasts
Author: Tanks