【Text/Observer Network Liu Chenghui Wang Hui】
Three rounds of intensive negotiations on a week finally failed to break the "solid ice" between the United States and Russia and solve the answer to the Ukrainian question; and the two countries just stepped off the negotiating table and soon began to set off a new round of waves. This political drama lasted for more than half a year, and it is still frantically adding more at an unprecedented rate.
On the 14th local time, the official website of a number of Ukrainian governments was suddenly hacked, and when things were not clear, the United States and Ukraine "invariably" pointed the spearhead at Russia; almost at the same time, CNN threw out a report, accusing Russia of "invading" Ukraine, preparing to deliberately create an attack against "their own people" in the Eastern Region, and even locked the "invasion" time from mid-January to mid-February...
CNN report: US intelligence shows that Russia is ready to act to create a pretext for invading Ukraine
The United States, which "buckles the hat" for Russia, continues to increase pressure on the other side. In addition to threatening to impose "deadly sanctions" on senior Russian officials and even President Putin, the US media has also let the media strengthen its support for Ukrainian militants, including the provision of offensive weapons; the United States' support for Ukraine will far exceed the strength of the last century's support for Afghanistan's resistance to the Soviet Union.
The "big stick" held high by the US side did not make Russia compromise half a step. The Russian Embassy in the United States hit back on the 15th that the report published by CNN was nothing more than "garbage news" and was exerting information pressure on Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has also previously pointed out sharply that it is the "arrogance and arrogance" of the West that has led to the current tensions, and he warned that the patience of the Western countries , Russia , has come to an end.
However, under the tension of the sword, all parties are still conveying the voice of dialogue. At the center of the whirlpool, there was news from Ukraine that President Zelenskiy had invited US and Russian leaders to participate in the tripartite talks; US Secretary of State Blinken also said that the United States and NATO were willing to engage in further dialogue with Russia; and the Russian side reiterated its support for resolving all international issues through diplomacy.
At present, the sound of "shouting and beating" and the sound of dialogue are intertwined, speculation and rumors are coming and going, and the prospects for the Ukrainian issue are still confusing.
Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations of the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Observer Network that even if the United States and Ukraine have conveyed the message of dialogue to Russia, this is largely a political gesture and need. Now the relationship between the two sides is not smooth, and neither of them can figure out what the other party is going to do next, but they are also preparing for the worst scenario. In addition, for the United States, Russia and Ukraine, it is more about patience and seeing whose side time is on. Although the possibility of this "tug-of-war" ending in war cannot be completely ruled out, at present, all parties still hope to handle differences in a more rational way and keep the door to negotiations open.
US media hype: "Russia wants to blame Ukraine!" ”
This week, the United States and other Western countries have talked with Russia three times in a row about the rising situation in Ukraine and Russia's security and security initiatives. Just from the feedback from these three meetings, the results were minimal. So much so that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, who led the negotiations, described Russia's dilemma with the West as having "reached a dead end"; the US permanent representative to the OSCE also shouted the slogan "The drums of war have sounded".
On January 10, US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman held talks with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, Photo Source: The Paper
In this protracted crisis, the continuous hype of "Russia's invasion of Ukraine" can be described as a main plot of Western countries. As early as the beginning of November last year, the United States, Ukraine and NATO continued to play up the "Russian threat", claiming that the Russian army was "100,000 troops" in the Russian-Ukrainian border area, and ukraine was in danger of being "invaded". The Ukrainian defense minister said at the time that the Russian army might be ready to launch an offensive at the end of January.
Now, after the negotiations have hit a wall, the United States can't wait to continue the new plot. As early as the 13th, US National Security Adviser Sullivan predicted that the US intelligence agencies believe that Russia may have created an "invasion excuse" that "accuses Ukraine of preparing to attack the Russian army in the Eastern Region", and Washington will publish the details of this "excuse" through the media within 24 hours.
On the 14th, a day after the conclusion of negotiations between Russia and the OSCE, CNN quoted a US official as saying that Russia was trying to carry out "false flag operations" (Western military intelligence terms, referring to disguised identities to blame others) in Wudong to create a pretext for military "invasion" of Ukraine.
The U.S. official put it this way: "The intelligence in the hands of the United States indicates that Russia is prepared to deploy a group of agents in the Wudong region in advance. These agents, who are specially trained in urban combat, will use explosives to attack Russian or proxy forces. In other words, the United States envisions that Russia will blame Ukraine for this attack, thus launching an attack on Ukraine.
After the report was published, the Pentagon and the White House successively came forward to "endorse." Pentagon spokesman John Kirby came forward to "confirm" that the intelligence was "very credible." He also declared on the 14th that Russia "pre-deployed a group of agents" to carry out "an operation that looks like it is aimed at Russian speakers in Russia or Ukraine" in order to create a possible invasion.
Then Came white house spokeswoman Psaki, who unanimously said Russia was prepared to launch an "imminent attack" on its own people in Oudong, "laying the groundwork for making up an excuse for invasion" and "using the same tactics as when it annexed Crimea in 2014." She even brought specific information about the timeline, such as russia's "planned operations in the weeks leading up to the invasion of Ukraine" and that the real "invasion" could "begin between mid-January and mid-February."
The allegations were given, but as for the evidence, the US side was vague. CNN quoted two U.S. officials, who asked for anonymity, as saying the U.S. assessment combined "interception of intelligence and ground action by specific individuals." Interestingly, while exposing this "secret", the report also said that the reason why the US government was reluctant to disclose more details was to avoid alarming "Russian agents whose operations were tracked."
The Washington Post reported that Russia plans to carry out potential sabotage activities in Ukraine
The Washington Post analyzed on the 15th that the Biden administration's latest accusations against Russia are part of its strategy, with the aim of preventing Russian attacks by exposing them in advance. The report also said that although members of Congress or U.S. allies have been informed of the intelligence, the lack of intelligence details also gives Russia the opportunity to attack the United States to "fabricate allegations," as Russia has done in the past on The Iraq issue.
Coincidentally, on the same day as the CNN report, a statement from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry echoed this. "The aggressor's military units, and their satellites, received instructions to prepare for such provocations," the statement said. ”
The rendering of the United States has once again triggered a fierce counterattack from the Russian side. The Russian side asked sharply - what about the evidence?
Russian presidential spokesman Peskov told TASS on the 14th that the allegations made by the United States about Russia's sabotage activities in eastern Ukraine have not been confirmed and have no basis.
The Russian Embassy in the United States also hit back on Facebook on the 15th, calling it "spam" and putting information pressure on Russia.
"The U.S. government spokesman described the provocation scene in detail and even gave the start time of the 'invasion'. As for the evidence? As usual – no. The Russian Embassy pointed out that the US move proves that it has been constantly exerting information pressure on Russia, and through repeated speculation in the media, it seems to have become the main news.
"Russia opposes war and advocates the diplomatic solution of all international problems." The statement warned the U.S. side to halt such behavior and re-emphasized that "the continuing allegations made by the United States (both official and media) against us are baseless and cannot be substantiated in any way."
In response to the US side's intention to release "intelligence" on Russia's actions, Li Haidong commented that this is actually an information war and a public opinion war, and both sides are releasing materials to the outside world, but the authenticity of these materials cannot be guaranteed.
"The United States and its allies are creating an atmosphere and consensus of 'Russia belligerence' in international public opinion, trying to discredit each other's image and reputation in order to achieve the effect that there is no moral guilt in using any means to compete with the other side." Li Haidong said that westerners hype that "Russia launched a war from mid-January to mid-February" does not rule out that Westerners want to do this, but they say that Russians want to do this, and this possibility cannot be ruled out. "They may be trying to throw the pot to Russia when they take the relevant action themselves."
Li Haidong added that judging from the current situation, the United States and NATO seem to want to engage in a "war of attrition" against Russia. By distorting Russia's intentions and deterring Russia's security with high intensity, Russia will devote a lot of resources to related military defense, so that Russia's economic and social order will eventually be exhausted and dragged down, which is another form of cold war.
Former senior U.S. military officer: Supporting Ukraine's resistance to Russia will far exceed support for Afghanistan's resistance to the Soviet Union
The Charges against Russia by the United States have been more than this one in the near future.
According to the Ukrainian State News Agency (Ukrinform), on January 13 and 14, local time, a number of government websites including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Interior, the Ministry of Energy, etc. were shut down by large-scale hacking. The Ukrainian State Security Service then released information that the attackers interfered with the Ukrainian government website and posted provocative information on the website's homepage, and preliminary investigations showed that no personal data breaches had occurred.
Although the incident is under investigation according to Ukrainian caliber, the United States and Ukraine are leading the incident to Russia. Ukraine's state security services said that while it was unclear who was responsible for the cyberattack, Russia "appeared" to be behind it. An official from the National Security Council (NSC) said Biden had been briefed on the incident and would "provide Ukraine with all the support it needs to restore its network." The Pentagon directly named Russia — it's too early to determine the cause of the attack, but "it's the same russia we've seen in the past." ”
Since the ukraine crisis erupted in 2014, successive U.S. administrations have painstakingly limited military support to Ukraine primarily on defensive weapons. To date, the United States has provided kiev with about $2.5 billion in military assistance, including anti-tank missiles and radars.
On November 14, 2021, the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine issued a statement saying that Ukraine had received about 80 tons of ammunition from the U.S. government. (Picture from US media)
The New York Times mentioned in the report on the 14th that in order to avoid angering Russia, the United States has kept a low profile in military aid to Ukraine for many years, but now, the US policy will usher in a major change. The 20-year military campaign in Afghanistan proves that the United States has done a terrible job in fighting the insurgency, but "the situation is completely different" when it comes to supporting inciting the insurgency.
James Stavridis, a former admiral in the U.S. military and former top commander of NATO, is "confident" in this: "If Putin uses major military forces to invade Ukraine, the United States and NATO will increase offensive military assistance to Ukraine," and "Putin should recognize that the United States has been fighting the rebels (in Afghanistan) for 20 years, and we know how to arm them, train them, and motivate them." ”
Stavridis even went so far as to say that the "level of military support" the United States has for Ukrainian rebels will far exceed the level of support for the Afghan resistance to the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s.
The New York Times: Once Russia invades Ukraine, the United States is ready to support a rebellion against Russia in Ukraine
Earlier, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin and U.S. Military General and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley warned Russia in the phone call that even if Russia could quickly achieve a military victory in Ukraine, it would face a "bloody rebellion," as the Soviet Union encountered in Afghanistan decades ago.
"Eight years on, Russia is still threatening (Ukraine's) sovereignty," Evelyn N. Farkas, former U.S. deputy assistant secretary for defense and security for Russia/Ukraine/Eurasia, said bluntly that the United States should no longer be wary of Russia's reaction.
"This time we should take off our gloves" Farkas said.
"The so-called dialogue of the United States is just a political gesture"
"Our patience has come to an end." In the face of the tightening of the United States and NATO, the Russian foreign minister issued a warning on the 14th, saying that "the West has been driven by arrogance and arrogance, violating its obligations and common sense, and aggravating tensions." Lavrov said the United States and its allies will respond to Russia's request in writing next week. They must understand that the key to everything is to ensure that NATO does not expand eastward. ”
However, while continuing to exert pressure on Russia, US Secretary of State Blinken said on the 15th that the United States and NATO are willing to carry out further dialogue with Russia.
"It is a pleasure to meet with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg after this week's NATO-Russia Council meeting." Blinken said on Twitter, "The United States and NATO are united, and we are willing to engage in further mutual dialogue with Russia." ”
However, in Li Haidong's view, this statement of equal dialogue is largely a political gesture.
On April 8 last year, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy (center) inspected the positions of Ukrainian government forces in the Donbass region. (Xinhua News Agency, courtesy of the Office of the President of Ukraine)
As for the "arrogance and arrogance" of the West mentioned by Lavrov, Li Haidong believes that the self-confidence of the United States and NATO comes from the so-called "success" they have achieved in the past: First, the five rounds of NATO's eastward expansion in the past have been completed, and now sweden and other traditional neutral countries are being considered by NATO and the United States to be trying to apply for nato membership, which is very passive for Russia; second, the United States and NATO have accumulated more so-called experience in observing, understanding, and responding to Russia's behavior in the five rounds of eastward expansion.
"Of course, Russia wants dialogue on an equal footing, but the premise of dialogue on an equal footing is: first, responsible, and second, to take care of each other's real concerns. But now it seems that neither of these two is available, neither the United States nor NATO is responsible, and both are in line with the mentality of doing whatever I want, expanding eastward if I want to expand eastward, and deploying armaments if I want to deploy, Russia can express its opinions, but the final decision has nothing to do with Russia. ”
Li Haidong said that this statement is more effective for the United States and NATO to win over European allies, and they can tell European allies that we can talk with Russia on an equal footing, but we cannot make decisions with Russia. This means that Russia can be placed on an equal footing verbally, while Russia can be ruthlessly excluded in action. This shows that the United States and NATO will give priority to the voices of some small countries in NATO, while Russia's demands can be said to be paid attention to in words, but ignored in actual actions. In the eyes of the United States and NATO, Russia is not even as important and heard as a small European country. So, in essence, the United States and NATO have a "power first" attitude toward Russia, ignoring Russia's real interests and concerns, and forcing their own decisions.
Although Russia is very strong militarily, in the past 30 years, they have left a series of pains in the process of competing with the United States and NATO on European security issues. "So the problems putin is facing right now are trickier, and any reaction from Russia can be said to be reasonable."
Will Putin be invited to participate in the US-Russian-Ukrainian summit?
In fact, in addition to the United States, Ukraine, which is at the center of the whirlpool, has also recently expressed its willingness to talk. According to the Ukrainian State News Agency (Ukrinform) reported on the 14th, Andriy Yermak, assistant to the Ukrainian president, revealed to the media that Zelenskiy has invited Biden and Putin to jointly hold tripartite talks to discuss the security situation in Ukraine.
What is the purpose of Ukraine's offer? Can Russia agree?
Li Haidong pointed out that Zelenskiy's proposal is actually to enhance Ukraine's position in the interaction with the United States and Russia, how can Russia cooperate with the Ukrainian government to do things that are conducive to their diplomatic image and influence under such an atmosphere?
From Russia's point of view, zelenskiy's government should talk to the Donbass forces in eastern Ukraine, and Russia will be willing to provide some facilities as a coordinating party to reflect its due great power status.
Blinken tweeted on the 15th that the United States and NATO are ready to carry out further dialogue with Russia
"Russia is a big country, it can talk to the United States, talk to NATO, talk to the OSCE, but it is more difficult for Russia to talk to Ukraine, because doing like Russia is tantamount to boosting Ukraine's influence and international status." Li Haidong pointed out that on the other hand, if Russia talks with Ukraine, it is equivalent to tacitly acknowledging that Russia is responsible for Ukraine's internal problems. In doing so, the United States wants to drag Russia into the internal strife in Ukraine, to show that the Ukrainian problem is a situation caused by Russia, and that a smart and sophisticated politician like Putin should not fall into the trap set by the United States.
"Next, we can observe how Russia responds." Li Haidong analyzed that the first way for the Russian side to deal with it is to refuse and not participate. Second, diplomacy is flexible, but the actual action and the final result are still rejected. For example, if it participates, Russia cannot accept the United States as the coordinator and let Ukraine and Russia engage in dialogue as the two parties, because then the influence of Ukraine, the United States, and NATO will be enhanced, and Russia's interests will be weakened. Therefore, if Russia participates, it must also communicate with the United States on an equal footing, and then inform Ukraine of the results of the exchanges, or the United States and Russia will coordinate together to do the work of the opposing parties within Ukraine. Russia's diplomatic wisdom, strategic planning and action are excellent, and this should not be underestimated by the outside world.
"All parties are preparing for the worst scenario"
"Now the relationship between the two sides is not smooth, no one can figure out what the other party is going to do next, but they are also paving the way for the worst scenario."
Li Haidong said that once the situation deteriorates, both sides will push the responsibility to the other side, saying that the worst situation is not caused by themselves, and throwing the pot to the other side, so that it is easier for each side to win over allies and get more support in the international community. At present, it seems that the United States, Russia, and Ukraine are all preparing for the situation in Ukraine to get out of control, which is indeed worrying.
Li Haidong predicted that once the war ends, it will most likely be a civil war in Ukraine, and Russia and the United States will express that they are not on the side of the war. But as external forces, the United States and Russia will inevitably participate in various forms, such as providing funds, weapons, training, and so on. There is no doubt that the United States will side with the Ukrainian government and Russia with the Donbass. Next, in addition to preparing for the worst scenario, everyone is more than patience to see whose side time is on. Although we cannot rule out the possibility that this "tug-of-war" will end in war, at present, all parties still hope to handle differences in a more rational way and keep the door to negotiations open.