Source: Zhczyj By Xu Bingjun
In 2021, the world has passed in the turmoil of a century of great changes. In 2022, major powers continue to wrestle, military confrontation is more intense, and the international military security situation is undergoing profound and complex changes.
The research and development and deployment of new equipment continues to break the balance of power, the fierce competition in space accelerates the formation of new combat domains, the actual combat of nuclear weapons has significantly increased the nuclear threat, and the expansion and application of asymmetric weapons has promoted changes in the mode of operation, especially the competition among major powers has significantly increased the instability factors affecting world military security, and the friction risk of confrontation conflicts or local wars between countries has further intensified.
The development and deployment of new equipment will be accelerated, and the balance of military power will be broken
Weapons and equipment are an important material basis for military competition, so the military powers represented by the United States and Russia and the developed countries in the West are stepping up the research and development and deployment of new weapons and equipment in order to gain a leading edge in military equipment. But as a new generation of equipment is tested, fitted, and deployed, it means that the existing balance of military power will be disrupted.
Renderings of the B-21 long-range bomber.
Improving air capabilities is the focus. From the perspective of equipment construction, the development of a new generation of air equipment by the United States and Russia is still the highlight.
According to the latest U.S. Air Power report released by the U.S. Congressional Research Service, the U.S. Air Capability Program focuses on two aspects: procurement and development:
Procure project: The focus is on the F-35 fighter jet, which involves multiple services and multiple countries. The Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps plan to acquire 2,456, the largest procurement program in the history of the U.S. Department of Defense; the KC-46 tanker, which plans to procure 179 tankers to replace the current KC-135 tanker; the B-21 long-range strike bomber, at least 100, to complete operational deployment in the mid-to-late 20s to replace the B-1 and B-2 bombers of the 1980s; and the U.S. Navy continues to procure F/A-18E/F multi-role fighter jets and EA-18G electronic fighters The U.S. Army mainly procures UH-60 helicopters for the delivery of supplies and troops. According to media reports, the US Air Force plans to purchase 12 F-15EX fighters, and actually approves 17. The unit price of this type of fighter is more than $100 million.
Development Programs: The U.S. Military's major development projects include: the Air Force Next Generation Air Superiority Program, which aims to develop the main technologies of the next generation of fighters; the Navy F/A-XX program, which aims to realize the Navy's technical needs for a new generation of aircraft; and the Army's Future Vertical Takeoff and Landing Program, which aims to develop new technologies to realize the advanced rotorcraft series. Although the B-21 long-range strike bomber program is still under development and testing, the development progress is accelerating, and the first flight is expected to be achieved in the middle of this year.
The latest "Hunter" S-70 drone.
The development of Russian air power focuses on three areas:
The first is to improve the existing fifth-generation fighters. In the next step, Russia will step up the development of two-seat command Su-57 fighters to control the latest "Hunter" S-70 unmanned aerial vehicle for air combat and ground strikes, and then form a system of operational advantages. The S-70 is a heavy drone that the Russian military is preparing to equip troops in 2024.
The second is to develop light fifth-generation fighters. On July 20, 2021, Russia unveiled for the first time a full-size model of the New Light Single-Engine Stealth Fighter of the Su-75 Checkmate, which takes off at 18 tons, has a combat radius of about 1,500 kilometers and a maximum flight speed of mach 2 or more. This year, we will step up research and development as planned.
Third, in accordance with the final research and development plan of the "Courier" (PAK-DA) stealth strategic bomber newly adopted by the Russian Ministry of Defense, it will be rapidly advanced as planned this year. According to the scheme, the PAK-DA shape design will adopt a "flying wing" layout, using two-dimensional tail vents, subsonic flight, and the range is expected to increase to 15,000 kilometers. The Russian Defense Ministry said the PAK-DA strategic bomber will be manufactured using stealth technology and is expected to be test flown between 2023 and 2024.
The Navy has expanded. In order to maintain maritime hegemony, the United States plans to build a more powerful navy to deal with China and Russia. From the perspective of service construction, the Navy is still one of the key branches of the united states to develop. In the FY2022 National Defense Authorization Act passed by the U.S. Congress, the Navy received the largest additional funding among the U.S. services, with $27.3 billion allocated to build ships of all kinds. Among them, the Navy applied for the purchase of 8 additional warships, and Congress finally approved an additional $2.5 billion to approve 13.
The U.S. Congressional Research Department released a report on December 11, 2021, saying that the U.S. Navy will receive $98 million to continue to develop a new generation of nuclear submarines, tentatively designated SSN (X). New submarines should emerge within the next 10 years. It is estimated that the first SSN(X) submarine will be procured in 2031 along with the Virginia-class nuclear submarines. In addition, the Navy plans to buy two or three such nuclear submarines per year, and by 2048, it is estimated that there will be 66 nuclear submarines of this type, each priced at a price of 5.8 billion to 6.2 billion US dollars.
The U.S. Navy has a total of 306 ships by the end of 2021, a far cry from its peak of 594 in 1987, but Congress is eager to allocate more money to the Navy, with the goal of building a modern fleet of 355 ships by 2035.
Driven by internal and external factors such as the "new look" reform and the confrontation with Western military suppression, the Russian Navy has shown a strong momentum of revitalization. As Russian-US relations tend to deteriorate, the military confrontation between Russia and NATO has intensified, especially the recent extreme pressure exerted by the United States and NATO on the ukrainian crisis approaching Russia's territorial waters, which has significantly increased Russia's maritime threat in the atlantic direction. In order to change the status quo, Russia must accelerate the development of naval equipment and the modernization of active ships.
On December 21, 2021 local time, Russia held a reception ceremony for the two nuclear submarines "Grand Duke Oleg" and "Novosibirsk". Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the ceremony and delivered a speech.
On the one hand, it accelerates the testing and installation of new ships. According to media reports, the 885M Yasen-M-class multi-role nuclear submarine Kazan, which can carry the Zircon hypersonic missile, was officially commissioned on May 7, 2021, and the nuclear submarine "Novosibirsk" of the same class also tested on July 1; the 955A North Wind God-A-class strategic nuclear submarine "Oleg", which can launch the "Brava" intercontinental ballistic missile underwater, was tested on May 31, 2021; the Warsaw Women-class diesel-electric submarine "Magadan" carrying the "Caliber" -PL submarine cruise missile The ship was commissioned at the end of June 2021; the Strategic Nuclear Submarine Belgorod, which can carry six Poseidon nuclear-powered unmanned submersible vehicles, was commissioned on June 25, 2021.
On the other hand, the construction of new aircraft carriers and strategic nuclear submarines will be stepped up, as well as the modernization of active ships. According to Russia's "National Weapons Program for 2018-2027" and the Russian military's recent disclosure, the Russian Navy's submarine force will supplement five "North Wind God"-A improved strategic nuclear submarines under the framework of the "Outline"; build three new aircraft carriers within the framework of the "National Weapons Outline for 2024-2033" that has started research and preparations, and promote the installation of "Poseidon" nuclear-powered unmanned submersible vehicles The Type 23,900 universal landing ship with a displacement of 25,000 tons will be launched by 2023; the Type 20386 stealth corvette will be delivered this year. In addition, the Russian army will also modernize the ships in service. At present, more than 30 ships are about to complete modernization.
Putin said that in the next two years, the Russian Navy will improve the performance of new ships and ensure that new shipborne weapons are used as scheduled. "The Navy's rearmament will be a strategic task." The Russian military will continue to introduce new technologies during the development and construction of new ships.
The Russian Navy held a ceremony on December 21, 2021 to receive two nuclear submarines, the Grand Duke Oleg and the Novosibirsk. The two new nuclear submarines will be mounted on the Russian Pacific Fleet. Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the ceremony that the two newly installed submarines have a strong strike capability. The "Grand Duke Oleg" submarine is equipped with the "Brava" ballistic missile, while the multi-purpose submarine "Novosibirsk" is equipped with "caliber" and "onyx" cruise missiles, which can not only effectively carry out maritime operations, but also carry out precision strikes against ground targets. Putin believes that the two submarines will be installed in the Russian Pacific Fleet, which will greatly enhance the combat potential of the fleet. He hopes that the two submarines can defend Russia's security and defend Russia's maritime interests. The analysis believes that these big moves of the Russian army reflect that the Russian Navy is accelerating its strong return.
2 Fierce competition in space accelerates the formation of new combat domains
The process of militarization of space has been significantly accelerated. Based on the new version of the Space Defense Strategy, the US Department of Defense has clearly proposed to accelerate preparations for space in the next 10 years. The strategy puts forward three major goals: "maintaining strategic superiority," "integrating combat capabilities," and "ensuring space stability," as well as four action lines that need to be achieved to achieve the goals: "building a comprehensive military superiority in space," "integrating space into national joint operations," and "changing the strategic environment and cooperating with allies, partners, industries, and other U.S. government departments and agencies."
It is worth noting that since the establishment of the Space Force in the United States, the pace of space militarization has been accelerating, and the relevant actions have been closely linked. On November 10, 2020, the U.S. Space Force released the Space Operations Planning Guide (CPG), which provides a solid foundation for the construction of the Space Force in the next decade. Subsequently, the U.S. Space Force established the "Ninth Space Delta Force", which is specifically responsible for monitoring and even launching space attacks if necessary. The U.S. military also renamed two bases in Florida "Space Base" as its first bases. The White House officially named the U.S. Space Force "Guardian" on its first anniversary.
After Biden took office, the construction of the US Space Force continued to advance in actual combat. Gen. John Raymond, the first commander of U.S. Space Command, said progress has been made towards a vision of becoming the world's first "fully digitized force," a plan divided into three parts: creating a digital headquarters, building digital proficiency, and enabling digital engineering.
On December 17, 2021, Space Force officials held a ceremony at the Pentagon to celebrate the service's second anniversary. From left to right, Aiden Dennis represents the youngest space force member, General John Raymond, head of space operations, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall, and senior enlistment leader Sergeant Major Roger Toberman. Source: U.S. Space Force
On August 24, 2021, James Dickinson, the current commander of the U.S. Space Command, delivered a speech at the 36th Outer Space Symposium of the American Space Foundation, saying that the U.S. Space Command has a preliminary combat capability, mature construction and strategic effects, and will have full combat capabilities in the next few years, and will soon focus on military exercises around outer space combat. This shows that the U.S. Space Force is accelerating the formation of actual combat capabilities in space.
On December 17, 2021, U.S. Space Force officials held a ceremony at the Pentagon to celebrate the second anniversary of the U.S. Space Force. U.S. Air Force Deputy Secretary Gina Ortiz Jones said at the ceremony that the Space Force's top priority is "to understand what we need to do to protect our satellites and support all other services." She noted that Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall wants to see the Space Force "do the best in space" as possible. "To maintain our edge, we have to go faster than our competitors." This means that the space arms race will continue to escalate.
Under the influence of the "demonstration" of the US strategy of entering space, the militarization of global space has accelerated. According to media reports, France announced in July 2019 that it approved the establishment of a space command within the French Air Force, and in the same year formulated the "National Defense Space Strategy", and in the autumn of 2020, the French Air Force changed its name to the "French Air and Space Force". In the same year, the Japanese Self-Defense Force established the first space combat team, the main task is to monitor meteorites, artificial satellites, space junk, etc., and its follow-up mission scope will be expanded. The UK also established space force command in early April 2021 and recruited from the army, navy and air force and civilian personnel. The German Defense Ministry announced the creation of the Space Command in July 2021, with the main task of protecting satellites that provide critical communication services and reconnaissance data to the military from external interference and damaging enemy satellites in wartime. NATO also adopted a new space policy in July 2019 to build a space defense system.
At present, the United States still dominates the space field, and it remains the world's first in terms of launch capabilities and the number of satellites in orbit. According to the Statistics of the American Union of Concerned Scientists, as of July 31, 2020, the total number of satellites in orbit in the world is 2787, which is owned by more than 70 international actors, including 1425 in the United States, 382 in China, and 172 in Russia.
According to media reports, the U.S. Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2022 allocated $15,945.7 million for the Department of Defense's space program for space systems and technology procurement and research and development, $645.7 million more than the presidential application and 18.6% more than in 2021. Congress passed the bill sending a clear message of "full support for space."
Despite this, the United States has vigorously hyped up the Sino-Russian "threat" in order to gain more financial support in Congress. On the other hand, in view of the fact that militarization in the space field requires a lot of money and manpower and material resources, the United States has taken the opportunity to hype the space "threat" to promote space alliances and forcibly pull more allies into the space game battlefield. In the view of the United States, the space field has been listed as a new combat domain, and the development of space technology of other major powers will inevitably pose a "challenge and threat" to the national security of the United States, so the United States continues to adhere to the Cold War mentality to suppress and contain China and Russia in order to maintain the space hegemony of the United States.
In the face of the bullying of Western countries led by the United States, Russia has taken a tough approach to counter it. On November 15, 2021, the Russian Defense Ministry conducted a space test in which an anti-satellite missile was launched from the ground, destroying an abandoned satellite. The test provoked a strong reaction from Western countries, with the U.S. Space Command accusing Russia of smashing the satellite, causing a large amount of "traceable orbital debris" that would threaten the security of human outer space activities for years to come. U.S. State Department spokesman Price directly called Russia's move "reckless and irresponsible," saying that "so far, the test has produced more than 1,500 traceable orbital debris and hundreds of thousands of smaller orbital debris that currently threaten the interests of all countries."
However, the BBC report said that Russia is not the first country to destroy abandoned satellites with missiles, and the United States and India have similar measures. Obviously, the United States is adhering to the double standard of "only state officials are allowed to set fires and the people are not allowed to light lamps."
In this regard, the Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement on the 16th that the space test conducted by Russia on the 15th will not pose a threat to the orbiting space station, spacecraft and space activities. The statement said the United States was aware with certainty that, depending on the timing and orbital parameters of the test, the resulting debris had not and would not pose a threat to space stations, spacecraft and space activities in orbit. According to a report on the Russia Today website, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed that the test was aimed at strengthening Russia's defense capabilities, especially in response to "situations that appear in space that endanger Russia's national security." The Russian defense minister said the test was successful and the strike was precise. In response, Lavrov pointed out that the United States, France and NATO as a whole were planning to deploy weapons into outer space, but at this time they came to blame Russia.
In the context of the United States' strong promotion of space militarization, the increasing demand for space combat capacity building in various countries in the world has led to an intensification of the global space arms race.
3 The balance between nuclear weapons and asymmetric weapons will be the main confrontation methods
Against the background of intensified strategic competition among major powers, the competition for nuclear forces continues to heat up, especially the trend of the actual combat of nuclear weapons is approaching, which will pose a serious threat to global security.
According to the annual report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, the number of nuclear warheads worldwide has decreased overall by the beginning of 2021, but the number of nuclear warheads deployed in combat forces has increased. The report said that at the beginning of 2021, the number of nuclear warheads worldwide was about 13,080, down from 13,400 in 2020. Of these, Russia and the United States have 6,255 and 5,550 respectively, accounting for about 90% of the global total. Despite the decrease in the total, the number of nuclear warheads deployed to combat forces increased from 3,720 in 2020 to 3,825, of which about 2,000 were in full operational readiness.
In fact, during the Trump administration, the United States adjusted its nuclear strategy and stepped up the promotion of nuclear weapons in actual combat. After taking office, Biden continued to advance the overwhelming nuclear modernization program. Therefore, the "theory of nuclear combat" is very popular in the United States, especially the vigorous development of low-yield new tactical nuclear weapons such as W76-2 and B61-12, with the aim of turning strategic nuclear weapons into tactical nuclear weapons and accelerating the replacement of US nuclear forces and making them more convenient for actual combat. This significant change undoubtedly lowers the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons and significantly increases the risk of nuclear war.
According to foreign media reports, according to the US Department of Defense, the main use of nuclear warheads is 3 categories: one is to consume 58% to 74% of the number of nuclear warheads to destroy the opponent's nuclear weapons delivery capabilities and military command centers; the other is to consume 11% of the nuclear warheads, destroying about 70% of the opponent's cities and industrial bases; and the third is to destroy the opponent's other military power resources in addition to cities.
Judging from the recent moves of the United States in nuclear weapons, the US military is preparing for the actual combat of nuclear weapons. The US media even published the remarks of Daniel Ellsberg, a former analyst at the US Department of Defense, who proposed in an article he wrote that if it was attacked by missiles, the US military would use nuclear weapons to counterattack and strike deeper at the enemy. According to the report, in order to ensure that when a conflict occurs, the United States quickly incapacitates the enemy and even lists civilians as a nuclear target.
The latest improved version is the B61-12, which removes the parachute compared to the previous model and uses an inertial guidance system that increases accuracy, with a maximum yield of 50,000 tons. As a result, it is smaller and more mobile.
However, U.S. nuclear hegemony is bound to be countered by other forces. In response to the looming nuclear threat from the United States and the West, Russia was forced to adopt a tough policy of nuclear confrontation with the United States.
On the one hand, Russia has increased its investment in the modernization and upgrading of strategic nuclear weapons, and after more than 10 years of efforts, the modernization rate of Russian strategic nuclear weapons has increased from 37% to 86%. Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that "despite the constantly changing military threat, the Trinity nuclear force remains Russia's most important security guarantee." ”
On the other hand, Russia has concentrated its efforts on developing asymmetric high-tech weapons in order to compete for advantage in the strategic game. In particular, in the context of the United States withdrawing from a series of arms control treaties such as the US-Russia Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the Intergovernmental Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the Open Skies Treaty, which frequently challenges Russia's security interests, Russia has given priority to the development of asymmetric high-tech weapons in accordance with its own conditions to cope with new security challenges. According to Russian media reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently announced the priorities for the development of Russian national weapons and equipment by 2033, including:
(1) Develop advanced technologies, develop new hypersonic weapon systems, high-power laser weapons and robot systems, and further strengthen Russia's national security;
(2) Strengthen the application of artificial intelligence, actively apply to command and control systems, communication and data transmission systems, high-precision missile systems, and control systems of robots, unmanned aerial vehicles and deep-sea submersibles, and achieve qualitative breakthroughs in improving weapon performance;
(3) Accelerate the development and mass production of high-tech and innovative weapons.
However, will the United States be willing to lag behind in developing high-tech weapons? The U.S. National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2022 also prioritizes emerging technologies. According to US media reports, the bill focuses on artificial intelligence, quantum information science, 5G and other areas of defense emerging technologies. These include:
(1) Artificial intelligence. The Ministry of Defense is required to conduct a comprehensive review of AI investments, establish a clearer path for the integration of AI into the administrative functions of the Ministry of Defence, establish a Database of the Ministry of Defense related to AI software and technology, and develop enhanced AI and machine learning capabilities.
(2) Quantum information science. Established the Commission on the Economic and Security Impact of Quantum Information Science to evaluate and make recommendations on topics such as investment in quantum information systems and the economic or security implications of technology exports; and requested the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) to initiate a program to "identify defense applications where dual-use quantum technologies have significant advantages over competing technologies" and to accelerate the development and deployment of such capabilities.
③5G。 Pilot programs for the deployment of telecommunications infrastructure are called for to facilitate the use of 5G services by Military Installations of the Ministry of Defense.
(4) Digitization. The Secretary of Defense is required to develop a digital health strategy that integrates emerging technologies (3D printing, virtual reality, wearables, big data and predictive analytics, etc.) into the clinical care of military health systems; increases the survivability and lethality testing of weapon systems, particularly against non-kinetic threats such as electronic warfare and radiation; and develops digital technologies to address these threats.
It can be seen from this that driven by the strategic game between the United States and Russia, the development and deployment of global nuclear weapons is approaching the danger of actual combat, the emerging high and new technologies represented by artificial intelligence, quantum technology, 5G, digitalization, etc. are accelerating the transformation into military applications, and with the wide application of emerging equipment and technologies represented by hypersonic weapons, laser weapons, artificial intelligence systems, and quantum information science, it indicates that asymmetric weapons will become a new way of checks and balances and confrontations, and will also make major changes in the mode of warfare. At the same time, the tomorrow for humanity is not security, but a more dangerous world.
Column Editor-in-Chief: Gu Wanquan Text Editor: Li Linwei Title Image Source: Visual China Photo Editor: Xu Jiamin
Source: Author: Xu Bingjun, a lookout think tank