Source: China Youth Daily
A vigorous national parade of 100,000 people kicked off French President Emmanuel Macron's bid for re-election. On January 8, local time, anti-vaccine activists across France organized demonstrations against the Macron government's upcoming introduction of "vaccine certificates" to replace the current "health certificates" and protested Macron's bad words to unvaccinated people - "let them get out of the egg".
With the election looming, why does Macron dare to speak foul of the public? The analysis believes that this is not another manifestation of "Macron-style arrogance", but a "palace plan" carefully planned by him against competitors.
Analysts believe that the outcome of the French election will affect far more than France's own domestic and foreign politics; the left-center-right dispute in French politics will spread from domestic affairs to diplomacy, which will also promote changes in major country relations and the international landscape, even if such changes are slow and subtle.
A "dangerous move" before the election
"Freedom", "Resistance", "Refusal of Vaccination Certificate", "Macron Get Out"... For two days in a row, Frenchmen, unvaccinated or masked, took to the streets of Paris in the drizzle of winter, waving slogans and tricolor flags, and rushing toward the Arc de Triomphe. In the chaos, the crowd and the police quarreled, which gradually escalated into violent clashes, 3 police officers were injured and at least 10 people were arrested.
France is one of the European countries most affected by the "tsunami" of the Omiquerong epidemic, and the number of confirmed cases in a single day has exceeded 360,000, setting a record high continuously. On January 6, the French parliament passed the "vaccine certificate" proposal, which intends to further tighten the epidemic control measures and introduce a "vaccine certificate" to replace the "health certificate". This means that in the past, only a negative nucleic acid test result or a certificate of covid-19 recovery could be used to enter and exit public places, and after the implementation of the new policy, the whole process of vaccination, including the enhanced injection, must be completed to go out legally, whether to go to work or to go shopping.
Just as controversial as the "vaccine certificate" is Macron's remarks. "For those who haven't been vaccinated, I really want them to get out of the way." In a recent interview with Le Parisien, Macron said that only a very small number of people in France are still "resisting" the COVID-19 vaccine, and that these people are "not worthy of being French citizens"; "I will not send them to prison, nor will I force them to be vaccinated, but to tell them that from January 15, you can no longer go to restaurants, you can not go to coffee, you can not go to the theater and watch movies."
This rude and fierce statement provided Macron's opponent with a good opportunity to launch an attack. For a time, from the left to the right, from moderates to extremists, everyone in French politics seemed to blame Macron. Center-right Republican candidate Valerie Pécles said she was outraged by Macron's remarks that he "doesn't deserve to be French without vaccinations" and that "you have to guide them and unite them, not insult them." Far-right candidate Marina Le Pen tweeted: "The president shouldn't talk like that, Macron doesn't deserve to be president." Left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Méroncheon said the "vaccine certificate" was a collective punishment for individual freedom.
However, Macron's "outspoken words" did not affect his approval rating. According to a recent survey of 1500 French people conducted by the survey agency Ipsos, Macron temporarily ranked first with 26% approval, nearly 10 percentage points beyond the second place.
Macron and his opponents
In fact, France has nearly 90% of eligible people vaccinated, one of the highest vaccination rates in Europe, why does Macron keep "pressing"? Mu Gengyuan, an assistant researcher at the Institute of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, told the China Youth Daily and China Youth Network reporter that this move should be a move in Macron's campaign strategy, even if it may provide a pretext for the opponent's attack and rekindle the public's perception of its "arrogant" image.
The French presidential campaign is held every 5 years and there are two rounds of voting. If no candidate obtains an absolute majority of votes in the first ballot, a second ballot will be held two weeks later between the two candidates with the largest number of votes. The 2022 French general election is scheduled for April 10 and 24, less than 100 days ago. As the election day approaches, the open struggle between candidates tends to become white-hot.
Despite Macron's lead in support, it is too early to assert that Macron will win. Left-wing parties are fragmented and may not be afraid to be afraid in this election, but Macron faces a group of right-wing opponents who have been clinging to the support of their old rival Le Pen in the last election, and Péclos's support is on par with Le Pen. What's more, it is not uncommon in history for election results to be inconsistent with polls, and both "gray rhinos" and "black swans" can occur.
Observers generally believe that Pekeres will be Macron's biggest rival in this year's French election. Pecrés, 54, describes himself as "a one-third Thatcher plus two-thirds Merkel." In early December, her approval rating was just 10 percent, significantly behind Le Pen and another far-right candidate, Zemour; by early January, her approval rating had risen to 16 percent, leaving Zemour behind and pushing straight for Le Bon. Mother Gengyuan believes that if the election enters the second round and Macron and Le Pen are dueled, Macron has a better chance of winning; but if the second round is Macron and Pecqueres, because Pecqueres is more deeply rooted in the Republican Party, Macron will encounter great challenges. Some polls expect macron and Pécrés to have 53% and 47% support in the second round of voting, respectively, which is almost the same in terms of figures. If Pécrés succeeds in her challenge, she will become France's first female president.
Analysts believe that by taking a tough stance on the unvaccinated, Macron is actually forcing his opponents to "take sides" — whether to side with Macron and push for vaccination as much as possible, or to side with the few who are not vaccinated. This is a political choice dilemma.
"For Macron, in doing so, he can not only highlight the vacillating position of the Republican Party on the 'vaccine certificate', help to show the clarity of his own position, play a role in weakening the Republican candidate, but also show his opposing position with the far right on this issue, and can effectively consolidate his voter base." Mother cultivator said.
The French election influenced European foreign policy
The left-right struggle in this French election has also spread from the "vaccine certificate" to the EU issue. Since January 1 this year, France has assumed a six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, the first time in nearly 14 years. On New Year's Eve, the blue EU flag, made up of 12 golden five-pointed stars, was raised across France, and Parisian landmarks such as the Arc de Triomphe, the Eiffel Tower and the Pantheon were illuminated by blue lights.
Macron's opponents, however, seized the opportunity to make a big fuss. Le Pen accused the lowering of the French flag of "offending those who fought for France"; Pécrés criticized the French government for "erasing the culture of the French"; Zemur said the practice was an "insult" to France. Charles-Henri Gallois, the leader of France's Brexit movement, said the Arc de Triomphe was built to commemorate French soldiers who died in the war, and Germany in the European Union fought France. When the French government removed the EU flag from the arc de Triomphe, the right-wing hailed it as a "great victory for patriotism".
Looking back at the last general election, the fledgling Macron, in the absence of support from major political parties, held high the banner of the "European Union" and claimed to lead France back to the center of the international political scene. As a result, he defeated far-right contender Le Pen 65 percent to 35 percent in the second round of voting, becoming the youngest president in French history. His hastily formed "Party of Forward" also unexpectedly won that year's parliamentary elections.
Five years later, Macron played the "EU" card again. "2022 is bound to be a turning point for Europe." In his New Year's address, he ambitiously stated that he would build a stronger, more independent European Union. He called on the public to believe in all his commitments and give the "once in 13 years opportunity to bring development and progress to France". He will also attend a meeting of European leaders in Paris on March 10-11 to discuss issues such as EU fiscal reform, the minimum wage and carbon taxes.
However, there are signs that the French public's goodwill towards the EU has diminished in recent years. According to a recent survey by the research agency "European Barometer", the French people have positive, neutral and negative attitudes towards the EU by 41%, 37% and 21% respectively, and their recognition of the EU ranks eighth from the bottom among the 28 European countries surveyed.
Mother Gengyuan believes that Macron advocates safeguarding and promoting national interests by strengthening EU sovereignty, and tries to use the opportunity of serving as the eu presidency to create momentum for re-election, but the "EU" card alone cannot add points to Macron, but it depends on how he reforms the EU and sees whether his series of claims to the EU can achieve the three goals of "rejuvenation, showing strength and enhancing the sense of belonging" thrown by him. Unfortunately, due to the constraints of the general election, Macron only has 3 months to play a fist in the position of the rotating presidency of the European Union, and faces many difficulties.
One of macron's challenges now is how to handle France's relations with China, the United States, Russia, and how to deal with tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Macron once said that "NATO has brain dead"; last May NATO proposed a $20 billion bill to "deal with challenges such as the rise of China", but it was strongly opposed by France, which believed that NATO should not regard the developing China as an imaginary enemy, but should clarify its strategic priorities.
Mother Gengyuan believes that France's presidency of the European Union is both an opportunity and a challenge to China-EU relations. On the one hand, France's foreign policy of independent powers will enhance the independence of the EU relative to the United States, which is conducive to the stable development of EU-China relations; on the other hand, France's more protective trade policy, exclusive industrial policy, and the promotion of the carbon boundary adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will pose a challenge to China. In terms of relations with Russia, Macron has always attached importance to developing relations with Russia since he came to power, with frequent meetings between the heads of state of France and Russia and the resumption of the Franco-Russian 2+2 strategic dialogue. France will continue to promote the development of European-Russian relations during the rotation period, highlighting Europe's autonomous status under the circumstance that European-Russian relations are constrained by US-Russian relations.
Beijing, 12 Jan (Xinhua) --
Hu Wenli, a reporter of China Youth Daily and China Youth Network
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