It is not so much that the Qing Dynasty was overthrown by revolutionaries as it was overthrown by Yuan Shikai, and the revolutionaries led by Dr. Sun Yat-sen were actually just the fuse.
Therefore, the demise of the Qing Dynasty and the failure of reform are not necessarily related. If that person is not Yuan Shikai, then relying solely on the strength of the revolutionary party, the Qing Dynasty cannot perish, at least it can be ruled by drawing a river.
The direct cause of the demise of the Qing Dynasty was Yuan Shikai's ambitions.
You must know that the military strength of the six towns in Beiyang at that time was very strong. Under the command of Yuan Shikai, the military discipline of the six towns of Beiyang was the best at that time, and the equipment and weapons were also the most advanced.
Yuan Shikai and the Nationalist Army made a temporary suspension of the war and a three-day truce. Since the extension of the period repeatedly, until the decision of the national system day is over. Xu Shichang was appointed to train the Janissaries Minister. Ding Wei, Bao Di was spared, with Qi Yaolin as the governor of Henan. Yuan Shikai and Xu Shichang of the MingShouxun Association organized military affairs. --- Draft History of the Qing Dynasty
Look at the revolutionary army during the Wuchang Uprising, what do they have in their hands? Basically, it was built by Zhang Zhidong in Hanyang, which was completely incomparable with the army in Yuan Shikai's hands.
Empress Longyu had been begging Yuan Shikai to march into Wuchang, but the people were waiting on the riverside, why?
Isn't it for the sake of self-respect? Yuan Shikai wanted to take all the power of the Qing Dynasty from the hands of these people in Zaifeng, and this was his ambition.
In fact, at that time, with Yuan Shikai's military strength, it was almost effortless to suppress the revolutionaries.
But it was at this time that Sun Yat-sen threw him a huge temptation.
I have to say that Dr. Sun Yat-sen's strategy is incomparable to that of ordinary people.
He told Yuan Shikai that as long as he could force the Qing Emperor to abdicate, the position of the great president would be yuan shikai's.
At that time, the president was the number one in the country, and Yuan Shikai, even if he had great power, was only a minister in the hands of the emperor, and the difference was a little big.
For this reason, Yuan Shikai's ambitions swelled again, decisively forcing the Qing Emperor to abdicate, and then became the president of the Republic of China. Therefore, the demise of the Qing Dynasty was entirely caused by Yuan Shikai's personal ambitions. Isn't the situation completely different if you change to someone like Zeng Guofan?
The failure of the Qing Dynasty's reforms was the result of a power struggle.
Some people say that if the Qing Dynasty's Penghu Reform Law was successful, then the Qing Dynasty would not perish, and would even enter capitalism in advance. There is some truth in this statement, but this big premise is basically impossible to achieve.
The biggest obstacle to the change of law was not Actually Empress Dowager Cixi, but power. For thousands of years, this thing has basically been the most tempting thing, not only Empress Dowager Cixi wanted to keep it, but the Guangxu Emperor also wanted to take it away.
It can be said that the Wushu Reform Law was only a cover for the Guangxu Emperor to seize power, and his purpose was to reuse the new people of the Wushu Reform Law, and then gradually seize the power in the hands of Empress Dowager Cixi.
Zhao, who used Kang Youwei to form a party for personal gain, made a rumor of chaos in government, stripped him of his post, and was arrested and imprisoned with his brother Guangren. There is no excuse for walking. Peng Zi, zhao hunted Kang Youwei and Liang Qichao. Gengyin, Hubu Attendant Zhang Yinhuan, Hanlin Academy Attendant Xu Zhijing, Imperial History Yang Shenxiu and Yang Rui, Lin Xu, Liu Guangdi, Tan Sitong and Sat Kang Youwei were arrested and imprisoned by the Party. --- Draft History of the Qing Dynasty
Of course, Empress Dowager Cixi would not agree, so in order to retain her power, she could only completely strangle the Wushu Reform Law.
Perhaps there are also things that Cixi approves of in this change, but because this is a gunpowder cylinder, it is impossible to extract some valuable things in it alone, and it must be completely destroyed.
If the problem cannot be solved, then it is a traditional virtue to solve the problem of the person who asked it. Therefore, the Guangxu Emperor was imprisoned, the six gentlemen of Wushu were killed, and Kang Youwei Liang Qichao was forced to flee.
In other words, if the Penghu Reform Method had been proposed by Empress Dowager Cixi, it might have been successful. Why?
Because if the change of law is conducive to consolidating her own power, of course she must accept it. Unfortunately, the Wushu Change Law was a change that weakened the imperial power, and it belonged to the Guangxu Emperor's strategy of surviving with a broken arm, and Cixi could not agree to it.
The demise of the Qing Dynasty and the failure of reform are not necessarily related.
What will happen after the successful reform of the Penghu Reform Law? Basically, like the Meiji Restoration in Japan, there was a constitutional monarchy.
The power of the monarch was limited, and the power of the DPRK was in the hands of a group of cabinet ministers headed by the prime minister. This system is implemented in many Western countries, such as the United Kingdom, Spain, Sweden, Norway and so on.
So under this system, the Qing Dynasty will not perish?
In fact, there is no necessary connection at all. The demise of the Qing Dynasty was orchestrated by Yuan Shikai and Sun Yat-sen, and as long as these two people are still there, then the Qing Dynasty will inevitably perish.
Even if a constitutional monarchy was established, would Yuan Shikai have lost his military power in the six towns of Beiyang? Once Yuan Shikai no longer held the military power, the Qing Dynasty simply could not defeat the revolutionaries.
It is to use the appearance of the general trend, the internal examination of public opinion, the special lead of the emperor to publicize the ruling power to the whole country, designated as a constitutional republic. Close to the heart of the sea of disgust and hope for governance, far from the ancient holy world for the righteousness of justice. Yuan Shikai was previously elected as the prime minister by the Senior Council, and when the old and new are metabolized, it is advisable to be the party of reunification between the north and the south. That is, Yuan Shikai will organize a provisional republican government with full authority and consult with the Nationalist Army to unify the methods. --- Draft History of the Qing Dynasty
Won't the revolutionaries in the South make any more trouble? Sun Yat-sen's revolutionary philosophy was,
Completely overthrow feudal autocracy and establish a democratic and republican state. Therefore, even if the monarchy is constitutional, Sun Yat-sen will not abandon the revolution.
It can be seen from this that this is actually a dead cycle, Yuan Shikai stepped down, then the revolutionaries could break into the city of Beijing, and the Qing Dynasty would perish. When Yuan Shikai stepped down, he would take the initiative to force the Qing Emperor to abdicate under the temptation of Sun Yat-sen, and the Qing Dynasty would still perish.
Summary: The Guangxu Emperor's determination to reform was actually not great.
We now watch a lot of TV dramas, and we feel that Guangxu is an emperor who has no power at all, and has always been determined to reform, but he has never been able to do so.
In fact, if you think about it carefully, you can also see that
The gang that changed the law was using the Guangxu Emperor to change the state system, and the Guangxu Emperor was not using these people to seize power in the hands of Empress Dowager Cixi?
Therefore, even if the Penghu Reform law was successful, the Guangxu Emperor would not agree to the constitutional monarchy in the end.
Is he really so selfless? Limiting your own power, isn't that stupid? No wonder Cixi wanted to imprison him.
The Guangxu Emperor's intention may have been to make the Wushu Reform Sect make a little achievement, so that the Reform Sect and the Conservative Sect would be evenly matched. At this time, he, the emperor, was left and right, and naturally he could seize power from it.
Reference: Draft History of the Qing Dynasty