Guotai Junan: The new generation of hybrids will usher in the outbreak period, and domestic brands will lead the development

Zhitong Finance APP learned that the automotive research team of Guotai Junan Securities released a research report pointing out that under the catalysis of multiple factors such as policy, demand and supply, a new generation of hybrid vehicles will usher in a high-speed growth period. Optimistic about the opportunities brought about by the rapid growth of the hybrid subdivision industry in the future, recommend companies with active layout in the field of complete vehicles and incremental components, and the recommended targets in the whole vehicle field are BYD (, Great Wall Motors, Geely Automobile, etc., and the beneficiary targets are ideal automobiles and well-off shares. The recommended targets in the field of incremental components are double-ring transmission and Chervon Automobile, and the beneficiary targets are Ryo electric control, Longsheng Technology, etc.

The strength of a new generation of hybrid products has been significantly improved, and the industry outbreak is imminent under the catalysis of policy and supply and demand. The core reason for the continuous downturn in the hybrid industry in the past is that the hybrid products lose electricity and oil and the cost is high, and the consumer recognition is low. Compared with the previous generation of hybrid products, the new generation of hybrid system represented by BYD DMI solves the core shortcomings of the state of power loss that is more expensive than the oil car. At the same time, with the comprehensive decline in the cost of the three-electricity system and the price difference with the oil truck from 60,000-80,000 to 1-20,000, the price of oil and electricity has basically been realized after considering the purchase tax concession. In addition, under the dual policy support and spur of the new version of the road map and the double integration policy, the driving force of car companies to push hybrid has been further strengthened, and the supply side of the positive promotion has been greatly enriched. The pain point contradiction of consumers using pure electric vehicles to charge is once again intensified, hybridization can solve the pain points of pure electric use and can achieve a high-level intelligent experience that fuel vehicles cannot provide, and the current point-in-time hybrid industry is about to erupt.

The advantages and disadvantages of the three mainstream high-voltage hybrid technology routes have both market demand. Hybrid in China is still in the early stage of penetration improvement, HEV, PHEV, extended range hybrid and other three types of high-voltage mainstream hybrid technology routes have both advantages and disadvantages, all three have no mileage anxiety, all have their own needs. Among them, HEV is a high-voltage strong hybrid, no need to charge and low purchase cost, the disadvantage is that pure electric battery life is short and can not enjoy policy support such as green card. PHEV adds a large-capacity battery on the basis of meeting the main advantages of HEV fuel saving, and the short-distance working conditions in the urban area can achieve pure electric driving, and the disadvantage is that the cost is slightly higher. The extender belongs to a special series architecture PHEV, the global motor drive is the best ride, the disadvantage is that the engine can not drive the vehicle, high-speed high load state fuel consumption is too high.

Compared with fuel oil and pure electricity, there are incremental components, and the market space of the hybrid industry chain is vast. Hybrid vehicles, as the most complex technology collection, have incremental components compared to fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles. The changes are mainly focused on the power system and drive control, involving the improvement of technology and components for hybrid engines, the improvement of hybrid transmissions, and the hybrid power control system. Vehicle and incremental components in the future market space is broad, it is expected that in 2025, the hybrid industry HEV + PHEV (including range extender) sales are expected to reach about 6.8 million vehicles, penetration rate of about 25%, 2022-2025 compound growth rate of 54%, the rapid growth of hybrid sales is expected to drive the synchronous high growth of incremental components, the total market space of related incremental components is expected to exceed 150 billion.

Risk Warning: Breakthroughs in fuel-saving technology for traditional fuel vehicles, the implementation of the "double integral" policy is not as good as expected, and the development progress of hybrid technology is not up to expectations.

This article is based on the research report released by Guotai Junan Securities, the author is the team of Guojun Auto Analyst Wu Xiaofei, and the editor of Zhitong Finance: Wenwen.