The latest annual assessment report (the "Report") released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the European Union's climate monitoring agency, said that the past seven years have been the hottest seven years since the global statistical record (that is, the middle of the 19th century).
The report also said 2021 was the fifth-highest year ever recorded in the world. In 2021, the average global temperature is 0.3 degrees Celsius higher than the average temperature in 1991-2020, and 1.1 to 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than the average temperature of the pre-industrial era from 1850 to 1900. Among them, Europe and the United States have suffered the hottest summers.
Chen Mei'an, senior researcher of Beijing Green Gold Institute and senior analyst of the Green Innovation and Development Center, said in an interview with the first financial reporter that in 2021, the global epidemic will gradually stabilize and activities in the fields of transportation, energy and agriculture will gradually recover, resulting in an increase in carbon dioxide and methane emissions, which in turn will push up global temperatures.
Global carbon dioxide and methane concentrations will continue to rise in 2021
According to the report, some countries and regions have higher temperatures than the global average by region, namely the Western United States, Canada, Central Africa, Northern Africa and the Middle East. Last August, Greenland recorded its first ever rainfall at its highest point, which means the melting rate of the Greenland ice sheet is accelerating. In Europe, the italian island of Sicily had a maximum temperature of 48.8 degrees Celsius, pushing the region's highest temperature record by 0.8 degrees Celsius.
The global La Niña phenomenon in 2021 actually helped to alleviate the trend of global warming, but why will global temperatures continue to rise in 2021? Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the C3S Climate Change Service, said this was directly related to rising global greenhouse gas emissions of carbon dioxide and methane.
C3S data shows that the global average carbon dioxide concentration increased to 414.3 ppm (ppm is one part per million) in 2021, and this value is 413.2 ppm in 2020. Methane concentrations have risen significantly, with the global average methane concentration rising to 1876 ppb (ppb being one part per billion) in 2021, more than double the average growth rate of the past 17 years.
Chen Mei'an believes that the reason why global greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise in 2021 is inseparable from factors such as the increase in global production activities after the epidemic.
According to market research firm IHS Markit, the composite PMI indices of the United States and the euro area were 57.0 and 53.3 in December last year. In June 2020, the above figures were 37.0 and 31.9. Data from independent research firm Rhodium Group also shows that in 2021, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions increased by 6.2 percent year-over-year in 2021 due to increased transportation activity.
In addition, Chen Mei'an also said that although countries around the world have paid increasing attention to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in recent years, countries' efforts to reduce methane emissions are still limited, which has exacerbated the trend of global warming to a certain extent.
According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), about 60 percent of methane emissions come from human activities. Since pre-industrial times, methane has contributed about 31% to global warming. If measured in 100 years of assessment time, methane's global warming potential (GWP) is more than 20 times that of carbon dioxide.
Global natural disaster losses will reach $280 billion in 2021
C3S said that due to the impact of rising global temperatures, global extreme weather events will occur frequently in 2021. The once-in-a-millennium heat wave in North America and the severe floods caused by heavy rains in Asia, Europe and Africa have brought about a lot of negative impacts on economic life.
German insurance giant Munich Re estimates that global natural disasters will cause as much as $280 billion in 2021. Among them, the hurricane in the United States caused about $145 billion in damage to the country. The damage caused by the floods in Germany is estimated at $40 billion, the most expensive natural disaster in Germany to date.
How can global warming be the problem in the future and reduce the economic losses caused by it? Chen Mei'an believes that both the government and enterprises have focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions, because the global warming effect of methane is stronger, and the decomposition rate in the atmosphere is faster than carbon dioxide, so taking measures to reduce methane emissions can reduce the speed and extent of global temperature rise faster. "Advancing methane emission reductions in energy and agriculture is a key focus for achieving this goal." She said.
IN THE TRADITIONAL ENERGY SECTOR, UNEP SAYS THAT METHANE LEAKED FROM OIL, GAS AND COAL FACILITIES COULD BE REUSED IF EMISSION REDUCTION TECHNOLOGIES WERE BROKEN. It is expected that by 2030, methane emissions from the traditional energy industry can be reduced by 40 to 50%.
In agriculture, UNEP also said, scientists can develop alternative feeds to reduce methane emissions from cows and manage manure more effectively through mulching, composting or biogas production.
However, Chen Mei'an said that the current global technology to monitor methane leakage data is still immature, which will restrict methane emission reduction work to some extent. Energy data analytics company Kayrros SAS said that the satellites monitoring methane emissions have a lower resolution and cannot cope well with high winds, heavy snow and other weather is the main cause of this phenomenon.