2021 for the domestic new energy vehicle market, must be a promising year, whether it is pure electric models or hybrid models, are in a state of rapid development, with "barbaric growth" to describe it is not too much, the domestic new energy vehicle penetration rate from the beginning of the year single digits, to November directly broke through 20%, let people see the momentum of the development of domestic new energy vehicles. Many manufacturers and commentators are looking forward to the performance of domestic new energy vehicles in 2022, because if other "variables" do not change, then in theory, the sales of domestic new energy vehicles in 2022 will indeed be stronger. However, once some variables change, the sales trend of new energy vehicles may be a different situation!
In fact, in the past year or so, the domestic new energy vehicles, especially the rapid growth of pure electric models, there are several factors that can not be ignored, first of all, with the various manufacturers and suppliers in the battery, electronic control, electric drive and other technical level of the obvious progress, many vehicles of the endurance is more powerful, at least in the nominal data is so; secondly, the new energy vehicle subsidies to a certain extent to ensure that the price of pure electric models has a certain discount, especially less than 300,000 electric vehicle products, Including hybrid models that meet the standard! Finally, relying on electrification, many new generation models have made great progress in intelligence, especially in terms of human-vehicle interaction, Vehicle Networking, active driving assistance, etc., enjoying intelligence and relying on electrification, which has been "bound" together, which has largely attracted the attention of many consumers!
But into 2022, or in the time period across 2021 and 2022, there are some situations that have shown signs, and these signs may mean that in 2022, the "barbaric growth" of domestic new energy vehicles may converge, and some consumers may give up the purchase of new energy vehicles!
The first is the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies, according to the relevant level, in 2022, the domestic new energy vehicle subsidies will fall by another 30%, and the subsidies for new energy vehicles will decline by a large decline, which means that some new energy models within the scope of subsidies will face an increase in prices after the new energy subsidies decline by 30%. In fact, the price of some models, including Tesla Model 3 standard endurance models and Model Y standard endurance models, has risen, of which the Model 3 standard endurance model has risen from the previous 235,900 yuan to 265,600 yuan, and the price of the Model Y standard endurance model has risen from 276,000 yuan to 301,800 yuan! And many car companies said that the price of some pure electric models may rise in 2022!
In addition, at the end of 2021, some insurance companies for the commercial insurance costs of new energy vehicles, there has been a sharp rise, and even some netizens said that their Model Y first year's premium is only more than 5,000 yuan, but when the recent renewal, the price is as high as 12,000 yuan, this netizen joked, bought a new energy vehicle, a year of saved oil money, and all handed over to the insurance company! In fact, many insurance companies have recently seen different increases in insurance costs for new energy vehicles. In fact, to a large extent, the sudden collective increase in the premium of insurance companies for new energy vehicles may still be distrustful of the safety performance of new energy vehicles, because once the new energy vehicles have accidents or deflagration and spontaneous combustion, they will largely affect other vehicles. Therefore, the industry-wide increase in the insurance cost of new energy vehicles is also a form of "self-insurance" for these insurance companies, because with the surge in sales of new energy vehicles, the related risks and probabilities have also increased significantly, so it can only greatly increase the premium and resist risks!
At the same time, another reality may also "dissuade" some potential new energy vehicle consumers to a certain extent. A year or two ago, there were many pure electric models that suffered a large number of complaints about the sharp reduction in winter battery life, and many manufacturers took battery technology and materials as a reason! In the past 2021, many manufacturers have been in battery technology, battery materials in a variety of "showmanship", as if battery technology and endurance maintenance capacity has been greatly improved. However, entering the winter, some media and institutions tested the winter endurance results, most of the pure electric models of the winter endurance performance is unbearable, the endurance to maintain the ability to reach 70% of the nominal endurance, basically impossible! The "original form" of winter endurance has made many people's expectations for electric vehicles in terms of endurance a bubble!
So in our view, with the subsidies for new energy vehicles declining sharply, the premium has risen sharply, which actually means that the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022, especially the cost of pure electric models, may be greatly increased, and the price in many cases, is completely able to influence the purchase decision of consumers, there are many consumers will give up the purchase of new energy vehicles because of the extra tens of thousands of dollars; and with the winter endurance of many pure trams "prototype", it is equivalent to "worse". Therefore, in our opinion, in 2022, for domestic new energy vehicles, especially pure electric models, there may be a "big hurdle", and the strong attack of new energy vehicles will also have a certain degree of convergence!