Kazakhstan, a country of turmoil.
At 3 p.m. on December 15, 2005 and 1 p.m. local time in Kazakhstan, the China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline was officially put into operation.
At the commissioning ceremony, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who personally launched the oil pump, said that the cooperation between the two sides in the oil field was "a model of Sino-Kazakh cooperation.".
The China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline is jointly invested by China National Petroleum Corporation and the State Oil and Gas Company of Kazakhstan, and the project starts from Atyrau in the West Sea in the west and ends at alashankou on the border between China and Kazakhstan, with a total length of 2,798 kilometers and a designed annual oil transmission capacity of 20 million tons. As China's first transnational oil pipeline, the China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline is of extraordinary significance to both China and Kazakhstan.
For China, the China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline has promoted the diversification of China's energy supply and greatly improved the level of energy security in China; for Kazakhstan, this is the first pipeline that is directly connected to the market without passing through a third country, increasing taxes to enrich the wallet and creating a large number of jobs.
As the world's largest landlocked country, Kazakhstan is also a veritable resource-based country, close to the superior location of the Caspian Sea, making Kazakhstan's oil and gas resources extremely rich, and China's huge consumer market has greatly improved the level of realization of Kazakhstan's resources, so although Kazakhstan and other Soviet union countries, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, encountered an unprecedented economic crisis, but can "rely on the sea to eat the sea" and quickly recovered, and become a typical resource-rich country, Quietly, common prosperity has been achieved.
Thirty years later, however, while Kazakhstan's resources remain incalculable, economic prosperity seems to have come to an abrupt end. In particular, since the beginning of the year, the price of liquefied natural gas in The Mangerstao Oblast of Kazakhstan has risen from the original 60 tenge (about 0.9 yuan) per liter to 120 tenge (about 1.8 yuan) per liter, which directly led to large-scale public protests, and the originally stable and prosperous Kazakhstan was instantly caught in the whirlpool of turmoil.
Theoretically, the rise and fall of commodity prices would have been beyond reproach, after all, the market economy is affected by supply and demand, and price fluctuations are really normal, unless the price of oil barrels remains high. But the people of Kazakhstan seem particularly dissatisfied with the price increase, taking to the streets and even storming government offices to force the Kazakh government to resign, and President Tokayev declared a two-week state of emergency in Mangistau Oblast and the city of Almaty.
The sudden upheaval reflects the dependence of the Kazakh people on resources and highlights the fragility of Kazakhstan's economic structure. After all, using resources as the pillar of the economy is a very risky behavior, because once the total amount of resources decreases or prices fluctuate, the country will immediately be in chaos.
But the problem is that looking at the world, there are more countries in the world that rely on resources to eat mountains and skies, especially Saudi Arabia, which almost wrote "I have oil, I am proud, I am born to be a local tycoon" on the face, but the domestic situation has remained relatively stable, even if the frequent fluctuations in international oil prices have not made them look for death and life. Under such circumstances, it is really strange that Kazakhstan will be excited or even unveiled because of the increase in the price of liquefied petroleum gas.
In the view of the history of quiet night, the turmoil in Kazakhstan is first of all the inevitable result of qualitative changes caused by quantitative changes, after all, in the case of slowing economic growth and difficulties in improving people's livelihood, the people are already dissatisfied. Coupled with the violent impact of the epidemic, people's living standards have plummeted. Under such circumstances, the increase in the price of liquefied petroleum gas is a veritable fuse, so that the vast number of Kazakh people who can't bear it will swear and grin and march on the streets.
The reason why the people of Kazakhstan are on the ground and the volcano erupts at the same time, the history of quiet night believes that the most important reason is also fueled by external forces.
As we all know, in addition to the convenient transportation of the intersection, the location of the intersection is the endless crazy tearing of various forces, after all, the resources are limited and the desire is infinite. And when the national strength at the crossroads is not worth mentioning, this tearing from all directions will be particularly unforgettable, and Poland, which has been constantly divided in history, has long been unable to cry.
Compared with Poland and other countries of crossroads in the general sense, the most prominent feature of Kazakhstan is that it is a country of "five crossings".
As we all know, "Wudaokou" is another name for a higher education institution, representing the low-key luxury of Versailles. However, the "five crossings" is a veritable disaster for Kazakhstan, after all, in addition to a pair of "concerned" eyes, Kazakhstan's embarrassing strength is doomed to an embarrassing fate of ups and downs.
Most of Kazakhstan is located in the steppe belt of Eurasia, a landform type that stretches across the interior of Eurasia, from the Daxing'an Mountains in the east to the Mongolian plateau, the Altai Mountains, and the Kazakh hills, so that the Caspian Plain leads to the Eastern European Plain.
For thousands of years, the Xiongnu, Turks, Mongols and other nomadic peoples continued to migrate along the steppe belt, the climax was the Mongol three western expeditions, Kazakhstan became a place where nomadic peoples went east and west.
However, because the strong uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the towering of the Changshan Mountains forced the invaders from the west to turn south to India, the main influence of Kazakh history came from the East.
After Zhang Qian's hollowing, the Han Dynasty began to operate the Western Regions, and the eastern region of Kazakhstan also became an inseparable part of the Territory of the Central Plains Dynasty in the 60 BC with the establishment of the Western Regions Protectorate.
After the fall of the Han Dynasty, turks and other nomadic peoples dominated, and the process of Turkification began in Central Asia.
After the early Tang Dynasty incorporated Central Asia into the Protectorate of Anxi, it became the sphere of influence of Buddhism. After the Anshi Rebellion led to the rise and fall of the Central Plains Dynasty, the Arab Empire entered Central Asia and began the Process of Islamization in Central Asia.
The remnants of the Mongol Expedition in the 13th century once again profoundly changed the pattern of Central Asia. The Chagatai Khanate established by the Mongols was divided into two after its prosperity and decline, and some of the tribes migrated south of Lake Balkhash to escape the war, and they were composed of Turks and Mongols, becoming the predecessors of the "Kazakh" people.
At the beginning of the 16th century, the Kazakhs successively established three khanates: Great Yuzi, Middle Yuzi and Little Yuzi. At that time, Mongolia, after being diverged by the Ming Dynasty, the Tatars and the Wallachians rose one after another, and then the Tatars divided into the desert south and the desert north Mongolia, and the Wallachians who moved west to Central Asia evolved into the desert west Mongolia, and the Dzungars under his command were strong for a while.
In order to avoid the Dzungar Khanate, Xiaoyuzi and Zhongyuzi fell into the arms of Tsarist Russia in 1730 and 1735, respectively, and Dayuz was annexed by the Dzungar Khanate.
After the Qing Dynasty eliminated the Dzungar Khanate in 1757, Dayuzi was incorporated into the territory of the Qing Dynasty, and Xiaoyuzi also submitted to the Qing Dynasty.
After the Qing Dynasty flourished and declined in the second half of the 19th century, Tsarist Russia took advantage of the fire and looting in the Second Opium War. Taking away more than 1.5 million square kilometers of vast land in the Outer Northeast and Outer Northwest, Kazakhstan eventually became part of the Russian Empire.
Tsarist Russia's seizure of power eventually led to the seizure of control over Central Asia. Kazakhstan, after experiencing the profound influence of the Central Plains dynasty, as well as large-scale Turkification and Islamization, was infused with the genes of Slavic civilization.
Compared with the "tides and flows" of Chinese civilization and the "subtleization" of Turkification and Islamization, Tsarist Russia adopted a more direct and brutal approach, that is, racial exchange, making the Slavic characteristics of Central Asia more and more obvious.
After the outbreak of the October Revolution in 1917, central Asia was full of turmoil, and the Autonomous Republic of Kyrgyzstan, the Autonomous Republic of Turkestan, the People's Republic of Bukhara and the People's Republic of Khwarazm were established successively.
In order to quell the upsurge of Turkification and Islamization, Soviet Russia began to implement large-scale "national identification" in Central Asia from 1920, artificially "creating" the five ethnic groups of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajik, and dividing the borders of the various ethnic settlements into staggered teeth, curbing the wave of Turkification and Islamization to the greatest extent and avoiding the long-distance flight of Central Asia.
Subsequently, in accordance with Lenin's policy of "national self-determination", the five Central Asian peoples successively established Soviet republics and joined the Soviet Union. In 1936, Kazakhstan was elevated to a member of the Soviet Union.
In the Soviet era, although Central Asia was economically backward, it was not obscure, and endless contradictions tested the management level of the Soviet Union. In order to suppress uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, the most populous country, the Soviet Union, in addition to dividing Kummanstan and Tajikistan, continued to support the growth of Kazakhstan, such as the five regions that Tsarist Russia had previously taken from Kazakhstan into kazakhstan, making Kazakhstan's land area as high as 2.725 million square kilometers, more than the total area of other Central Asian countries combined.
However, there was no free lunch in the world, and the Soviet Union was unusually "generous" to Kazakhstan in order to increase the proportion of ethnic Russians in the total population of Kazakhstan and ultimately achieve the purpose of assimilation of Kazakhstan.
Soviet operations were almost successful, for example, in 1989, the proportion of ethnic Russians in kazakhstan's total population was as high as 37.8%, second only to 39.7% of Kazakhs, laying the foundation for the division of Kazakhstan.
It can be said that compared with the long history of Chinese civilization, the profundity of Turkification and Islamization, Russia's influence is more intense, which directly affects the process of near-modernization in Kazakhstan. So much so that after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan repeatedly expressed to Russia that "love me and don't go", and its dependence on the Soviet Union is really from the heart.
But the problem is that Russia has decided to throw off Kazakhstan with the strength of a scumbag for a girlfriend, so Kazakhstan can only separate from the Russian Laoyan.
Because the collapse of the Soviet Union has greatly damaged Russia's vitality, it is also powerless against the back garden of Central Asia, and because Central Asia has not been strong enough, it is even more difficult to say a word after being "divided and ruled" by the Soviet Union, so forces from all sides began to flock to it.
In addition to Iran, which, in order to increase the depth of confrontation with the United States, exalts the "pan-Islamic" grand plan and regards Central Asia as its sphere of influence; and Turkey, which can only "do more than chicken heads rather than phoenix tails" to revive the Turks and sing "pan-Turkism" in order to increase the depth of the confrontation with the United States, cannot succeed in "breaking away from Asia and entering Europe." With the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, China's influence is constantly expanding, especially the birth of the "Belt and Road" initiative in 2013, which made Kazakhstan a core node on the New Silk Road.
Although Russia's comprehensive national strength after the collapse of the Soviet Union has long been insufficient, because Central Asia is related to the status of a great power, Russia seizes every opportunity to return to the king.
In addition, the haze of the United States can be described as ubiquitous, although the results of 20 years of deep ploughing in Afghanistan have not been ploughed, but with Afghanistan as a springboard, the impact on Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan, can be described as pervasive.
To some extent, the United States, which stands out from the crowd in terms of comprehensive national strength, is the main culprit in the turmoil in Central Asia. After all, for the United States, it is not too comfortable to make the Central Asian black miasma that is close to China and Russia and threatens Iran and Turkey, and the effect of killing four birds with one stone is simply not too comfortable.
And such a shameless act has naturally met with strong opposition from other countries, especially India.
Although it is far away from Central Asia and does not have the energy of the United States to provoke provocations across thousands of rivers and mountains, the collapse of the Soviet Union has given India hope, and the turmoil in Central Asia has ignited india's dream of "Wang Shi Beiding". More importantly, India, like the United States, also has the gene of "having difficulties to go up, and creating difficulties without difficulties to go up".
For India, Central Asia is not only the place where conquerors have broken through the door for thousands of years, but also the arena where India rushed out of South Asia, detoured behind its northern neighbors, and even dominated the world, so outside the "five passes", India has always had the idea of finding another way to Central Asia to "find the roots and ask for ancestors".
Kazakhstan's situation has been very difficult in the face of these forces that cannot afford to offend. The fundamental reason why Kazakhstan can stand alone in the midst of its strong neighbors lies in the "long-sleeved good dance" of Nazarbayev, the founding leader of modern Kazakhstan.
In the case of Kazakhstan's comprehensive national strength is not worth mentioning, nazarbayev first needs to find a balance among the various forces.
But the problem is that as a weak person in the "chicken and crane group", balance alone is far from enough, after all, if there is any imbalance, Kazakhstan will be in vain. So while trying to be exquisite, Nazarbayev's benchmark point is to clasp Russia's hands.
Although Russia's intentions have been decided, Slavic traces are still in the bone, especially millions of Russians. Therefore, maintaining friendship with Russia is of great importance to Kazakhstan. Thanks to the "friendship" between the Soviet Union and Yeltsin and other leaders, Russia-Kazakhstan relations have been stable for a long time, which has also become a needle in the long-term stability of Kazakhstan's political situation.
Then, when Kazakhstan's wings were growing, it gradually weakened Russia's power through nuclear abandonment and anti-blood exchange, and finally enhanced Kazakhstan's autonomy. The premise of autonomy is still a delicate balance between major powers.
Therefore, Kazakhstan's long-term stability and prosperity after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nazarbayev is the greatest credit. In these 30 years, the United States has never stopped jumping up and down, Turkey and India have always been eager to move, Kazakhstan's international environment is not easy, relying on the control of Nazarbayev, the helmsman, Kazakhstan carefully sailed the ship of ten thousand years.
But the Nazarbayev era will eventually pass, so Kazakhstan will change the sky, and "there is no grass under the tree", and strong leaders generally lead to weak successors, which is a veritable disaster for Kazakhstan.
Therefore, internal factors are still the fundamental basis for the change and development of things, and the crisis in Kazakhstan is still from within, specifically the inadequacy of the post-Nazarbayev era.
The turmoil in Kazakhstan is bound to pose a huge threat to China and Russia. After all, Russia has long been lost in the encirclement and interception of Western countries, especially Ukraine has long been sword-fighting, if Kazakhstan as a backyard fire, Russia will inevitably be exhausted.
Kazakhstan, as the core node of the "Belt and Road" initiative, is directly related to the success or failure of the "Belt and Road" initiative to some extent, so the turmoil in Kazakhstan, as a stage result of the "color revolution" of the United States and other Western countries, also tests the tacit understanding, friendship and wisdom of China and Russia.
I hope that Kazakhstan will pass through the rain and the sea and the river as soon as possible.
There are many omissions, please axe correction.
I am The History of Quiet Night and look forward to your attention.