The Iranian president is about to visit Russia: will not sign a comprehensive cooperation agreement for the time being, aiming at Russia's advanced weapons?

The Paper's reporter Yu Xiaoxuan

The Iranian government recently issued a statement saying that at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iraqi President Lehi will visit Moscow in early 2022. According to the Islamic Republic news agency of Iran reported on January 4, Lehi will travel to Russia in the next few days. If the visit goes according to plan, it will be the Iranian president's first visit to Russia since 2017 and the most important foreign visit since Lehi took over as president in August last year.

Iran has always had strong political, military and economic ties with Russia. Iran's ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jarali, told the Ikod News Agency on January 4 that Lehi's visit to Russia would be a "turning point" in Iran-Russia relations. "In view of the development of the international situation, especially the problems in the region, the visit of the Iranian president to Moscow is of dual importance." Jalali said that Lehi and Putin will discuss and exchange views on international and regional issues and various fields of bilateral cooperation.

Will Iran and Russia sign a "20-year comprehensive cooperation agreement"?

In March 2021, China and Iran signed the Comprehensive Cooperation Plan between the People's Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Iran (the "Comprehensive Cooperation Plan"), which focuses on tapping the potential of cooperation between the two countries in the economic, cultural and other fields, and charting long-term cooperation prospects and paths, excluding specific contracts or indicators that are quantified.

Since the agreement was signed, there has been speculation that Iran will sign a similar document with Russia. On November 16 of the same year, Lehi said in a phone call with Putin that Iran was ready to conclude a long-term agreement with Russia for comprehensive cooperation. Therefore, whether the two sides will sign relevant agreements during this visit to Russia has aroused concern from the outside world.

As early as last July, Iran's ambassador to Moscow, Jalali, told the media that the text of the 20-year comprehensive cooperation agreement with Russia had been completed, covering political, security, military, defense and economic cooperation. But in fact, the agreement is an extension of the old agreement. In March 2001, the two countries signed the Treaty on the Basis of Principles of Mutual Relations and Cooperation between Russia and Iran, which is automatically renewed every five years. In September 2020, when Iranian Foreign Minister Moscow visited Moscow, then-Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif said that Iran wanted to consider the possibility of updating the document before extending the agreement again.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzad said last month that the development of a comprehensive cooperation plan with Russia was nearing completion. "We have developed a new diplomatic plan, which is a roadmap for a 20-year agreement with Russia." Iran's Labor News Agency (ILNA) quoted Khatibuzad as saying, "The process on the Russian side is almost over." Khatibzadeh also said the document was similar to a "comprehensive cooperation plan" signed between Iran and China.

To date, Russia has not responded formally to reports of the program. In an interview with the ICA news agency on January 4, Jalali said that the visit will indeed determine a "roadmap for Iran-Russia cooperation", but the two countries do not intend to sign a comprehensive cooperation document. Jalali said the comprehensive cooperation document was being drafted by Iran, but it would take time to sign the draft because russia should also comment on the draft.

The outside world speculates that a large order for arms sales will be signed

What is more worrying is whether Lehi's visit will sign a large arms purchase order.

Iran and Russia have always had close ties in the field of military cooperation. During a visit to Russia last fall, Mohammed Baghrli, chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, stressed the peculiarities of the two countries' defense ties, though he had reservations about the possibility of military cooperation between the two countries. "Of course, the relationship between Moscow and Tehran is strong, but it has not yet reached the stage of forming a military bloc." Bagri said.

Under the Iranian nuclear deal signed in 2015, the UN arms embargo on Iran is scheduled to expire in October 2020. In the months leading up to the expiration of the embargo, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) speculated that Iran might buy S-400, Su-30, Yak-130 trainer aircraft and T-90 tanks from Russia. After the embargo was lifted, Iran said it had obtained some "advanced products" from Russia's defense industry, but foreign media reported that there was little indication that Iran was actively promoting procurement.

According to many analysts, the main purpose of Lehi's visit to Russia is to determine the development direction of military-technical cooperation between Iran and Russia. Babak Tahivi, a journalist in the field of military aviation and an expert in defense analysis, revealed on Twitter on December 30 last year that Iran and Russia will sign a 20-year, $10 billion security and defense cooperation agreement in January 2022, including the purchase of Su-35 fighter jets, the S-400 missile system and a satellite.

Iran is expected to buy at least 24 super-maneuverable multi-role Su-35 fighter jets, the Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT) reported on Jan. 4. The Iranian Air Force has selected more than 30 pilots to learn to fly the Su-35 SE Flankers. Experts said that if Russia and Iran can reach an agreement this month, preparations for the Su-35 fighter fleet will begin immediately.

Defense and aerospace expert Paul Eaton recently wrote in Forbes News that iran's su-35 "super flank" fighter jet to be purchased is the same as the russian fighter built for the Egyptian Air Force. However, the U.S. threatened sanctions against Egypt under the Countering U.S. Enemies with Sanctions Act (CAATSA), egypt's unfinished $2 billion deal with Russia has been affected, and some warplanes intended for delivery to Egypt are still parked in Russia, leading to growing speculation that Russia will sell them to Iran or Algeria.

Paul Eaton said the Iranian Air Force's equipment was "quite outdated" and that much of its fighter force consisted of U.S. F-14As, F-4s and F-5s delivered during the reign of King Pahlavi in the 1960s and 1970s. After the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the Iranian Air Force purchased miG-29As from Russia, and during the Iran-Iraq War, Iran also acquired some Mirage F-1 fighters from the French Dassault company of the Iraqi Air Force. But Iran has never bought any new foreign warplanes since the early 1990s. Therefore, the order to purchase more than 20 Su-35 "Super Flanker" fighters will greatly enhance the Iranian Air Force and become a stopgap solution for the gradual upgrading of Iran's fighter force over the next decade.

TRT also noted that another issue that Iran will discuss is to extend the service life and modernization maintenance of the 24 MiG-29 and 25 Su-24MK fighters in service in Iraq. At the same time, the possibility that Iran has offered to purchase Russia's S-400 air defense system is not ruled out, but iran may be rejected in light of the relevant agreement between Russia and Israel, "the issue itself may be a test of the level of trust between Russia and Iran." ”

Where does the money come from?

As of now, the Vienna negotiations to restart the Iranian nuclear agreement have not made significant progress, and the United States has no intention of lifting sanctions on Iran. Therefore, many experts also doubt whether Iran has the ability to pay for the defense contract with Russia. TRT pointed out that Iran has always used some kind of barter for large-scale transactions, generally exchanging oil resources for military weapons. Lehi's visit is likely to revolve around these delivery issues.

But Russian experts are wary of this barter approach. Luslan Pukhov, director of the Russian Center for Strategic and Technological Analysis, said, "The problem on the Russian side will not be so simple. Pukhov told Russian reporters that Iran is being sanctioned, that Tehran has major economic problems and that iran may seek discounts on arms deals. But Pukhov believes Moscow can lend it. "If we've given loans to Venezuela, Belarus, Jordan, why not Iran?"

Responsible Editor: Zhang Wuwei Photo Editor: Jin Jie

Proofreader: Luan Meng