Recently, in response to a question from a netizen: "When is the next economic crisis?" At the time, Musk said, "Forecasting the macro economy is challenging." My hunch is that recession will come around the spring or summer of 2022, but no later than 2023 at the latest. ”
This sentence, a stone stirred up a thousand waves, causing discussion on the Internet.
I have read a lot of articles in the past two days, and found that the content of everyone's discussion has not touched on the core point. Today I specially write an article to give you a good talk about this matter and how to deal with it.
1What is an economic crisis?
Economic crisis is an academic term, like a disease. The specific clinical manifestations are a large number of enterprises failing, workers can not find jobs, debts can not be repaid, commodity backlogs can not be sold, inflation is serious, etc., anyway, things that hinder people's normal life have emerged.
In such an environment, our lives will be very difficult, and the normal social order will be disrupted, so we call him a crisis.
2 Under what circumstances will an economic crisis occur?
According to the recent crises, they basically appeared at the most prosperous time of the market, such as the subprime mortgage in 2008, which was the crisis that occurred at the best time for real estate. He is cyclical, like a parabola that reaches its apex and begins to fall.
Others, such as the oil crisis, are the result of the actions of specific individuals and are not the focus of our discussions.
3What reference data is there?
I observed that before each crisis, the local CPI data was generally high, such as before the 2008 crisis, the CPI (consumer price index) in the United States reached 5.6%, which then triggered the subprime mortgage crisis that swept the world.
This time, the CPI of the United States has reached 6.8%, a new high since 1982, and it is estimated that it is also a record high.
If we double the history, we will find that most of the economic crises occurred after the high CPI, such as the Great Depression of 1929.
4 central bank assists
On March 23, 2020, when there was a wave of large-scale unemployment and business closures in the United States due to the epidemic, the Federal Reserve took timely action and opened an unlimited amount of easing (printing money hard), lending and issuing money to American companies and residents with almost no restrictions.
The size of the Fed's assets has surged from 3.5 trillion yuan to 7 trillion yuan in 2 months, creating the fastest growth rate in history.
So much money put down, the corresponding production level can not be doubled in 2 months, will inevitably lead to more money and less things, naturally the CPI is high.
Now that the U.S. unemployment rate has once again reached 6.0 percent, down sharply from the beginning of last year, the Fed wants to brake and shrink its balance sheet (and not continue printing money).
Then the crisis that was delayed last year may break out this year.
5 Impact on our country
To tell the truth, if there is an economic crisis in the United States, the whole world will get a heavy cold. Our country may be better if it does not follow up on monetary policy this time, but it is unlikely that it will be able to stand alone.
After all, the relationship between the two countries is too close now, you have me, I have you.
However, you don't have to worry too much, people of insight in our country should have seen the key to it long ago, and planned the road we will take next step by step. As ordinary Chinese, we strive to live every day well, and we can not add chaos to the country.
6What should ordinary people do?
The relationship between ordinary people and crisis is as follows:
First, the enterprise that works every day suddenly can't continue to operate one day and finds that it is unemployed;
Second, the assets (such as real estate) that were previously desperately tuned suddenly become unscented, and even cannot be taken off;
Third, the pockets are flat, and not only yourself, but also the friends around you.
What to do?
Don't invest with leverage; start as little business as possible; hoard more cash; don't be extravagant; exercise actively, keep a good attitude, and wait for the next economic cycle.
The author | Brother Cong
The source | Financial Cong brother
