In the eighth month of the lunar calendar in the third year of the Qing Dynasty (1911 in the Western calendar), the Wuchang Uprising broke out, and by New Year's Day 1912, the Provisional Government of the Republic of China was established in Nanjing. For the Qing government, most of the eighteen provinces in the interior, except for a few provinces such as Shaanxi, Zhili, and Gansu, most of the rest were declared to belong to the Republic of China.
During this period, after some mediation, the Qing government and Nanjing finally reached an agreement: the Republic of China government would treat the Qing dynasty clan and promise not to retaliate, and the Qing emperor announced his abdication.
Previously, in the last year of the Yuan Dynasty, after Zhu Yuanzhang's army restored the traditional Han Dynasty, the Yuan Shun Emperor continued to maintain the rule of the Yuan Dynasty in the Guanwai region - known as the Northern Yuan. After that, the Khans of the Northern Yuan Dynasty and the Ming Dynasty fought for a long time for more than two hundred years, until the death of Lin Dan Khan during the Chongzhen period.
So, under such precedents, why did the Qing Dynasty choose to abdicate rather than imitate the Yuan Shun Emperor to establish the Northern Qing regime and negotiate with the Republic of China for a long time?
Xiaobian thinks:
Feasibility aspects
Theoretically, it is feasible for the Qing Dynasty to retreat to Guanwai and establish the Northern Qing regime. Because for the emerging Republic of China, the idea of "expelling the Tartars" still exists. The so-called "expulsion" refers to the expulsion of the Manchu Qing from the traditional Han Dynasty. Although there were already a large number of Han immigrants in the three eastern provinces at this time, for most of the Han people, there was no concept of the difference between the president and the emperor.
In addition, the northeast and Mongolia and the northwest were at that time the sphere of influence of Tsarist Russia and Japan. For Tsarist Russia and Japan, it would be nice to divide China in two, and Tsarist Russia did not want to have one less monarchy in the world because of the Xinhai Revolution.
Therefore, with the support of external forces, the "Northern Qing" would gain the support of Japan and Russia — in fact, since the abdication of emperor Xuantong, the long-term activities of the "Qinwang Restoration Army" in Manchuria and Mongolia supported by Japan, as well as the subsequent establishment of puppet Manchus, can counter the fact that the Northern Qing Will be supported by Japan and Russia.
Reasons why it cannot be implemented
Just like an enterprise, no matter how much business there is, no matter how advanced the equipment is, but there is no decent staff to operate, then it cannot create any social wealth, and the demise of the Great Qing is also related to the lack of available talents.
One of the reasons why the Northern Yuan was able to negotiate with the Ming Dynasty for a long time was that in the early Northern Yuan, the Northern Yuan had Emperor Yuan Shun maintaining his rule, while in the Qing Dynasty, Emperor Xuantong was still a child, and the opinions between the regent and the Empress Longyu could not be agreed, thus ruining the efficiency of decision-making.
In addition, although the Northern Yuan was driven out of the Central Plains, there were still many talents in the Northern Yuan regime who were willing to be loyal to the Northern Yuan—even after the Yuan Shun Emperor lost most of the capital, the Northern Yuan also counterattacked the Ming army many times and defeated the Ming army.
In the qing dynasty, the only talent that the Qing dynasty can rely on is Yuan Shikai, and it just so happens that this Yuan Shikai completely buried the Qing Dynasty.
If Empress Longyu chooses to confront the Republic of China to the end and remove Yuan Shikai from his post, the Beiyang New Army may mutiny. Even if the Qing court forcibly maintained the Northern Qing regime outside the Han Dynasty, judging from the level of Empress Longyu's rule, it was only a matter of time before the Northern Qing collapsed from within.
Therefore, the establishment of the Northern Qing Dynasty was theoretically feasible, but due to the lack of talents in the late Qing Dynasty, this plan could not be implemented.