Sisso Seikan | Britain: Tilting toward the "Indo-Pacific" in the midst of the epidemic

The Paper's special contributor Li Guanjie

【Editor's Note】

As 2021 draws to a close, the world is still struggling to move forward under the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic, with great power games, geopolitical conflicts, and old and new hotspot issues intertwined. How will the world and China come from 2021 and how will they move towards 2022? Shanghai Institute of Global Governance and Regional Country Studies, Shanghai University of Foreign Chinese (SISU), in collaboration with the www.thepaper.cn, invited experts from various fields to present a series of articles on the "Sisso Chronicle" to take stock of the world trend in 2021 and look forward to the new situation in 2022.

In 2021, the first year after the UK leaves the EU's Single Market and Customs Union, the Johnson administration seeks to build the UK into an export-oriented world power, using a variety of means and mechanisms to make a difference in domestic and foreign affairs, as follows.

"Herd immunity" failed, and new mutated strains ravaged britain

First, although the Johnson government is confident in fighting the new crown pneumonia epidemic, "herd immunity" has not worked, and the new mutant strain has recently ravaged the UK, and the number of confirmed cases in a single day has reached a new high.

In 2021, the UK experienced three waves of outbreaks. The first wave occurred late last year and early this year. Confirmed cases fell from a peak of 81,481 confirmed cases in a single day on December 29 last year, and to May, the epidemic was effectively alleviated and the curve was flattened. The reason for the rapid control of the first wave of the outbreak was the increased vaccination efforts in the United Kingdom. On March 20, 752308 people were vaccinated in a single day nationwide. By May 1, more than 34.5 million people had completed their first vaccination. Between March and July, about 37 million people were given a second dose of the vaccine.

The second wave occurred between July and November. Due to high vaccination rates and a flattening of the epidemic curve, the UK government believes that a herd immunity barrier has been established and has decided to completely liberalize social restrictions. On July 19, the Closure of England was completely lifted, and the British government no longer required the wearing of masks and did not regulate social gatherings. Prime Minister Johnson has publicly stated that people need to learn to live with the virus. Since then, the number of confirmed cases in the UK in a single day has remained at about 30,000. The second wave is characterized by the fact that the high number of new confirmed cases has become the norm, and the epidemic has been running at a high level.

The third wave has occurred since December. The Omikeron mutation invalidated the herd immunity barrier that Britain had worked so hard to build. On 27 November, the first case of Infection with Omikejong was detected in the United Kingdom. Although anti-epidemic measures have been taken to speed up the intensification of vaccination or a third dose of vaccination, it is still unable to resist the invasion of Omicron. On 24 December, the number of confirmed cases in a single day reached 122186, a new high. London has declared a "major accident" status, and Johnson has launched the anti-epidemic "Plan B", ordering that when entering the UK or participating in large domestic events, he must show a new crown pneumonia "vaccine pass" or a negative nucleic acid test certificate.

Ideas such as "herd immunity" and "coexistence with the virus" advocated by the Johnson administration have boosted the development of the epidemic, and the government has completely liberalized epidemic prevention measures on the basis of protecting people's freedom, resulting in the epidemic getting out of control.

Johnson is plagued by scandals, but the Conservative "country" remains solid

Second, although Johnson's government has been criticized, the Conservative Party is strong, the local council elections have no waves, Johnson's wrists are strong, and the ability to control the situation has been enhanced.

The Conservatives have had gains and losses in two by-elections for the Lower House of Commons. In the May 6 by-election for the Hatpool constituency, conservative candidates defeated Labour to become the district's first Conservative representative since 1959 and the first ever female representative. In the North Shropshire by-election on 16 December, the Conservative candidate suffered a crushing defeat to the Liberal Democrats, losing the long-standing grip on the seat for 189 years. Overall, the Conservatives have not lost their advantage in the House of Commons, currently occupying 361 seats in the House of Commons, much higher than half of the 325 seats in the Total House. As a result, johnson's government has a strong foundation for governance, and two by-elections cannot shake its foundations.

There is no suspense in the Scottish and Welsh local council elections. On 6 May 2021, Scottish parliamentary elections were held. The Scottish National Party won 64 seats, an increase of one seat from the previous election, and remained scotland's largest party. Although the number of seats in the Scottish National Party increased by more than half, it was decided to govern jointly with the Scottish Greens after much deliberation. The Scottish National Party has long been in charge of Scottish politics, and the second independence referendum remains a firm issue for it. Chief Minister Sturgeon has repeatedly stressed that it is only a matter of time before Scotland's second independence referendum is held. The Welsh Assembly elections run concurrently with Scotland. The Welsh Labour Party won 30 seats, reaching half of the total seats. The Welsh Labour Party's continued control of the Welsh Assembly has not been broken, but it is worth noting that the "Outlaw welsh Assembly Party" became the fifth largest party, winning not a single seat but also taking more votes. The existence of the "Ban Party" not only shows that the unity of England and Wales has a deep historical and ideological foundation, but also shows the opposition and dissatisfaction of the people to the Welsh Parliament.

Prime Minister Johnson, despite political scandals, was able to rest on his laurels. Johnson has the flamboyant to smooth it all out, including dissenting opinions within the Conservative Party. In September 2021, Johnson underwent a second cabinet reshuffle. The most important of these is the replacement of Raab as Foreign Secretary by The Minister of International Trade, Traus, and The Promotion of Rab as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice. Johnson's cabinet has great resilience, and its ability to control the situation has increased significantly.

Look for overseas markets and vigorously promote "Made in the UK" exports

Third, the Johnson administration has led LinkedIn countries to quickly get out of the trough of economic contraction, formulate policies to expand outward, set ambitious export goals, and promote enterprises to go global.

Affected by Brexit and the new crown epidemic, the British economy was hit hard in 2020, with GDP shrinking by 9.9%, the largest decline in history. In 2021, the British government risked the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and forcibly liberalized all epidemic prevention measures, directly promoting the UK's commodity manufacturing and service industries to get back on track faster.

The trade agreement signed between the UK and the EU has come into force, creating a good environment for the export of UK goods and services. At the end of 2020, the UK and EU reached the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement. At the end of April 2021, the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union passed the agreement. On 1 May, the UK-EU Trade Agreement came into effect. The UK-EU economic and trade relationship has taken a new tone, and the principle of "zero tariffs and zero quotas" has benefited both sides.

The Johnson administration is actively looking for overseas markets. In February, the UK applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and formally launched access negotiations in June. The CPTPP is neither a single market nor a customs union, but an agreement that allows member countries' goods to enter each other's markets and reduce or eliminate tariffs for mutual benefit. Britain's application to join the CPTPP is not only political, it is the first non-founding member to apply for membership in the organization, and it does facilitate the export of goods.

The Johnson administration has pushed hard for the export of British manufactured products. In November, the UK Department for International Trade released an export trade strategy document "Made in the UK, Sold Globally", setting an annual export target of £1 trillion by the mid-2030s. The Johnson administration also proposed a 12-point plan to unite other departments to promote the outward development of British enterprises by launching the Export Support Service Scheme, establishing branches of the Ministry of International Trade throughout the country, making full use of the European Regional Development Fund, increasing the support of credit institutions for overseas trade, strengthening the construction of intergovernmental relations, requiring export trade training institutions to provide training programs, and running overseas trade shows.

The UK economy has recovered strongly due to the complete removal of the impact of Brexit, the complete liberalization of epidemic control measures, and the acceleration of the search for overseas markets to expand exports. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the UK economy will grow at 6.8% and 6.9% in 2021, the fastest growth rate compared to other developed economies in the G7. In order to achieve sustained growth and stable employment, the Bank of England has formulated monetary policy to deal with domestic inflation. In November, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.1% year-on-year, the highest level in 10 years. The Bank of England decided to raise the benchmark interest rate by 15 basis points to 0.25% in response to inflationary pressures and to achieve its target of keeping inflation within 2%. The UK has also become the first major economy to raise interest rates since the pandemic.

With the use of home diplomacy to expand its influence, the policy is tilted towards the Indo-Pacific

Fourth, the Johnson administration made full use of home diplomacy to expand Britain's global influence, use the G7 platform to disseminate British foreign policy and values, formulate policies to penetrate deep into the Indo-Pacific region, and continue to interfere in China's internal affairs.

The UK has long been working on its post-Brexit foreign policy, but due to the pandemic, the Johnson administration has postponed the release of the Global Britain in an Age of Competition: A Comprehensive Assessment of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy until March 2021. The report is structured in a "global Britain" and clearly proposes an "Indo-Pacific tilt" policy. Britain defines Russia as "the most serious and immediate threat" and China as a "systemic competitor" and is prepared to engage in a two-front confrontation: to confront Russia with NATO as the core in Europe, and to build a value alliance in the Indo-Pacific region to contain China.

In 2021, the UK holds the G7 presidency, during which it holds two foreign ministers' meetings and one G7 leaders' summit. In May, the UK invited India, Australia, South Korea and South Africa to participate in the G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting, paving the way for the G7 Leaders' Summit. From June 11 to 13, the G7 Leaders' Summit was held in Cornwall, and Australia, India, South Korea and South Africa were invited to attend. During the summit, 11 countries, including the United Kingdom and the European Union, jointly issued the Open Society Statement, reaffirming their commitment to "the common belief in open society, democratic values and multilateralism". At the second G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting in December, the UK invited ASEAN members to attend for the first time, aiming to implement its "Indo-Pacific tilt" policy.

The UK is building its voice in the international community under the banner of the "Green Industrial Revolution". On October 19, the first global investment summit was held in the United Kingdom, and Johnson spoke about the green industrial revolution, saying that the summit raised $10 billion and created 30,000 jobs. From 31 October to 12 November, the United Kingdom hosted the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, where consensus was reached on the implementation rules of the Paris Agreement.

In its China policy, Britain continued to interfere in China's internal affairs. The 48th and 49th Semi-Annual Reports on Hong Kong were released in 2021 to assess the political situation in Hong Kong over the year from July 2020 to June 2021, arguing that China violated the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration and slamming the implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law. In addition, the UK invested £43 million to lure Hong Kongers to emigrate to the UK. Our side resolutely fought back, condemning Britain's interference in China's internal affairs by distorting the Sino-British Joint Declaration, trying to turn Hong Kong people into second-class British citizens and profiting from it, and demanding that Britain immediately correct its mistakes.

Fifth, the Johnson administration withdrew its troops from Afghanistan and went deep into the Indo-Pacific region to brush up on the sense of military presence, and the long-term trend of its army layoffs has not changed, but its marine space power has been enhanced.

The Defence In March released a policy paper entitled Defence in the Age of Competition, which assesses the threats facing the UK and develops measures to modernise defence and enhance the UK's defence capabilities. The British Ministry of Defense regards Russia and China as key prevention targets in accordance with the established tone. The Johnson administration deployed the aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth to the Indo-Pacific for the first time, sending maritime patrol ships to the permanent station to enhance the British presence in the region.

Britain attaches great importance to maritime power, and pays more attention to the development of space power. On 1 April, the UK officially established a new Space Command, composed of the Royal Navy, British Army, Royal Air Force and civilian personnel, to enhance the British Military's control over the space sector. The UK also attaches particular importance to the development of cyberspace power. In November 2020, the UK announced the establishment of a national cyber force. In December 2021, the UK released its National Cyber Strategy 2022, which expects the UK to continue to be a leading, accountable and democratic cyber power by 2030.

The UK is gradually shifting its military power from land to sea, space and cyberspace. In August 2021, Britain followed the UNITED States in withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan, ending a 20-year war in Afghanistan with a failed end. Then Foreign Secretary Raab was also replaced by Prime Minister Johnson for failing to withdraw troops. The British Army is the backbone of the force, but its size is shrinking, reducing its workforce to 72,500 by 2025. While reducing the size of the army, the United Kingdom is strengthening its maritime and space forces, achieving a strategic shift of gravity from land to maritime space.

Where will the UK go in 2022?

Looking forward to 2022, the UK will continue to adhere to its "herd immunity" concept in the fight against the epidemic, and strengthen prevention with the development of effective vaccines as the main response measure. Johnson's administration has not faced significant pressure to govern. The UK will go deeper into the Indo-Pacific region economically, accelerate CPTPP negotiations, and go deep into the ASEAN market. Diplomatically, it will promote its values by holding the "Global Summit on Freedom of Religious Beliefs" to echo the United States and increase its efforts to attract countries in the Indo-Pacific region. Militarily, we will increase our strength in the marine and space fields, increase investment and investment in research and development, or send two aircraft carriers to sail oceans.

2022 marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level between China and the UK, as well as the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to the motherland, and the two sides may not be able to celebrate it hand in hand. Britain will continue to issue reports on its interference in Hong Kong's affairs and make a big fuss about the 25th anniversary, drawing the hearts and minds of Hong Kong and discrediting the Chinese system. On the other hand, China-UK economic and trade may not be greatly affected by ideology or will grow against the trend. In the future, China and the UK will still be the norm in "hot and cold politics". China should be fully prepared to, on the one hand, insist on hitting the British outcrops and choose the opportunity to strike the other hand, it can consider suppressing the British in the economic and trade fields, increasing its assistance to neighboring countries and guiding Generation Z (editor's note: refers to those born in the late 1990s to the early 2010s) to offset Britain's influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

(Guanjie Li, Assistant Research Fellow, Uk research centre, Shanghai Institute of Global Governance and Regional State Studies, Shanghai University of Chinese)

Editor-in-Charge: Zhu Zhengyong Photo Editor: Jiang Lidong

Proofreader: Yan Zhang