Atomic think tank 丨Wu Zunyou: The increased infectivity of the Omikejong strain has led to ineffective vaccines? This is inconclusive

From December 29th to 31st, the "Please Answer 2022·2021 Tencent Fengyun Speech Annual Conference" hosted by Tencent News and Atomic Think Tank was held in Beijing. The annual meeting invited more than 20 of China's top experts, scholars, investors and entrepreneurs to carry out wisdom exchanges from multiple dimensions such as "macro-economy", "meta-universe" and "big consumption", bringing a little clarity to various questions about the future.

Recently, the COVID-19 variant virus Omiljun strain is spreading rapidly around the world. In this strain, Wu Zunyou, chief expert of epidemiology at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said in his speech that the current global epidemic is still The Delta virus, and whether the latest variant, Aomi Kerong, can become a global epidemic strain, we need further observation, "No matter how the virus mutates, our normalized prevention and control strategy is effective, as long as we adhere to the normalization prevention and control strategy without wavering, we will certainly be able to win the epidemic defense war of 'external defense input, internal prevention and rebound'." ”

Wu Zunyou judged that according to conservative estimates, the normalization of prevention and control strategies has reduced china's infections by at least 50 million people and 1 million deaths, which is the most conservative estimate. He said that normalized prevention and control has guaranteed China's social and economic development in the past year, guaranteed the well-being of tens of millions of Chinese families, and guaranteed the safety of people's lives.

So far, all reports have suggested that Aomi Kerong is more contagious than Delta, but scientists don't have the exact scientific basis to prove it, Wu said. The main epidemiological indicator used to measure the infectivity of the virus is the coefficient of transmission, which is how many people can be infected per patient on average.

"South Africa's spread coefficient for Aumechjong is 2.55, or an average of 2.55 per person." Wu Zunyou said that the global average coefficient of the previous epidemic strain of the Delta strain was 2.79, and the spread coefficient of the Delta strain was 5.08, which is higher than the coefficient of 2.55, "At present, it is not possible to draw the conclusion that the infectivity of The Omilon is enhanced, which requires further observation of the spread of the strain." ”

Regarding pathogenicity, Wu Zunyou believes that the limited data in South Africa show that after patients are infected with the Omikejong strain, the clinical symptoms are not more serious than those infected with other strains, that is, the pathogenicity has not increased.

Regarding the claim that Aumequeron may lead to the ineffectiveness of the vaccine, Wu Zunyou believes that after analyzing 35,670 cases of repeated infection, South African researchers found that the protection that previous infections can provide is only half of the protection of The delta strain for Themi kerong, and the protection effect for the Omilon is not as good as the protection effect for the Delta.

Wu Zunyou said that Aumequeron will lead to a decline in the vaccination effect to a certain extent, but the impact on different vaccines is still unclear; but there is a point of mechanism that is clear, because the mutation of Omiljung mainly occurs in the site of the spike protein, the vaccine with the spike protein as the strategy will be greatly affected, but the impact on the inactivated vaccine will not be too large.

"Please answer the 2022-2021 Tencent Wind and Cloud Speech Annual Conference" jointly sponsored by Tencent News and Atomic Think Tank, the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, Xinhua net Sike strategic cooperation, the annual meeting invited more than 20 China's top experts, scholars, investors and entrepreneurs from the "macro-economy", "meta-universe" and "big consumption" and other dimensions to carry out wisdom confrontation, bringing a little clarity to various questions about the future.

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