Entering December, the butanone market rose first and then fell, foreign trade orders increased, most factories basically had no inventory, and the offer continued to rise. However, as secondary traders began to ship slowly in the middle of the year, the market transaction was very cold. This month, the related product acetone also fell sharply, coupled with the decline in the downstream terminal manufacturing industry of butanone, and the introduction of power curtailment policies in East China, resulting in a continuous decline in demand in the near future.
The trend of carbon four after ether is still rising first and then falling
In December, the market in Shandong district after the ether carbon four showed the first rise and then fell, the beginning of the month crude oil prices shock moved up, boosting the terminal gasoline market, driven by the good, alkylation enterprise profits rebounded, the market procurement was active, the demand support carbon four prices climbed to the high point since April, in the middle of the month with the release of the pollution weather emergency response, some downstream deep processing enterprises limited production and reduced the burden, coupled with the weakening of the terminal market, carbon four price high correction, at the end of the month with the emergency response lifted, downstream enterprises resumed work and production, demand gradually recovered, ether after the carbon four stopped falling back to stability. As of December 30, the transaction price of Shandong's post-ether carbon four mainstream was 3450 yuan / ton, up 370 yuan / ton compared with the same period in November, an increase of 12.01%. Compared with the same period last year, the price fell by 1300 yuan / ton, a decline of 27%.
Downstream multi-industry production has been significantly reduced
According to the statistics of Longzhong Information this year, viscose is the largest downstream, accounting for 35%, and after the export set a record in November, it has successively reduced production in December. PU leather and coatings were also affected by the season and started to fall by 30%, while production in these terminal industries will continue to decline in January.
The first is that the domestic market is seasonally sluggish in winter, and most of the main demand industries for adhesives have stopped working, and the share of domestic trade has been reduced by 20%. Secondly, policies such as environmental protection and security inspections were strengthened in the winter, and some small enterprises were forced to stop production or intermittent production, which also made the demand for butanone suddenly decrease in December. Secondly, the implementation of the power curtailment policy in East China is strict, and most export enterprises are forced to reduce orders, in order to alleviate the foreign trade crisis that may be brought about by January. The dollar is seriously overdone, and China's terminal products export volume has soared, and profits are meager, such as the recent plummeting of the dollar, export enterprises can not escape the fate of losses, so in January, terminal exports are difficult to support
Longzhong Information expects that the trend of butanone in January is more likely to fall first and then rise. At present, the downstream demand for butanone is very sluggish, the secondary traders have greater resistance to shipments, coupled with the sharp rise in logistics prices caused by Shandong Blizzard, as well as the embargo on the New Year's Day holiday, which has affected the decline of the market trading atmosphere of butanone, so after the holiday, it is expected that there will be no shortage of butanone in early January. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, it is expected to usher in a brief rise in mid-January, but the time and amplitude are limited, after all, the possibility of not making inventory downstream is greater. At the end of January, butanone entered a traditional period of no market, and it is expected that more production will be reduced and the price will be more stable.
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