The wine was "thundered" again, talking about consumer stocks - Daoda Investment Notes

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Source: WeChat public account "Daoda number" (WeChat public number ID: daoda1997)

In the early hours of this morning, the Fed took the lead in a showdown in front of the "interest rate hike table" of the world's major central banks, and called "landlord" by the way.

The Fed directly made it clear that the current surging high inflation across the United States is the biggest risk it faces right now, announcing that it will double the size of its monthly bond purchases in the future, while the newly released interest rate dot plot also shows that it is expected to raise interest rates three times next year.

This should be regarded as a more hawkish expression of the Fed, but the US stock market predicted the Fed's prediction, directly came a wave of reversal, low and high and is a sharp rise, hi overturned. It can only be said that the boots fall to the ground, and the profit is good.

Therefore, there is no reason for A shares to fall today, not to mention that even yesterday's pharmaceutical "black swan" has been falsified.

According to media reports, the main purpose of the United States is to combat drug addiction such as fentanyl, which has nothing to do with CXO. However, this also for us to wake up, on the level of medical technology, we must have a gap with others, but in the process of epidemic prevention, we still have vaccine companies to stand out, it is inevitable to be jealous, pharmaceutical companies still need to strengthen innovation capabilities, improve the moat.

Pharmaceutical stocks have been temporarily stopped, but the bearishness of liquor stocks has come again. There are mainly two messages:

The first is that the "Detailed Rules for the Review of Liquor Production Licenses" mentions that enterprises producing vintage wine should establish quality and safety standards for vintage wine, and the label of vintage wine should truthfully mark the true year and proportion of the various base wines used; liquor labels must not be marked with words such as "special supply", "exclusive supply", "special use", "special demand" and so on.

In addition, there is news that Shanxi Fenjiu may change the chairman, and the big bull stock Shanxi Fenjiu has approached a crash this morning, bringing the liquor sector down.

For the draft for comments, a one-sentence summary is that the production of good liquor is concentrated to advantageous enterprises. As for the change of chairman, there is indeed uncertainty for liquor companies with unstable market positions. The liquor industry is really not for everyone, and it is indeed difficult to control this intricate competitive relationship due to lack of experience.

Of course, for the change of chairman, some media subsequently reported that the staff of The Shanxi Fenjiu Securities Office responded that "this source is very vague and cannot be grasped." No relevant messages or documents have been received to confirm the matter. If it is officially announced, it will be announced on the official website of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. ”

Yesterday, a friend left a message saying that Dago's previous evaluation of liquor, we speculate in stocks, sometimes we have to go with the trend, not because they don't like or have disliked, they ignore the choice of market funds. At the beginning of this round of market launch, the funds chose liquor, and the liquor plate structure is also strong, at this time, going with the trend is the right choice.

Of course, in the medium term, the explosive power of wine is certainly not the strongest. If Guizhou Moutai wants to double, the stock price will have to rise from 2,000 yuan to 4,000 yuan, which is much more difficult than many small and medium-cap stocks. Here, recommends that everyone pay attention to new consumption trends according to the characteristics of current social changes. Last year's blind box is very hot, the medical beauty at the beginning of the year, the recent cultivation of diamonds, electronic cigarettes, are the products of the new era, the future will still give birth to more new consumer goods and consumption models.

For example, now the north, Shanghai and Guangzhou are more popular pre-made dishes, which is different from the net dish we said before, the net dish is just washed, cut and configured. And the prepared dish belongs to the already cooked, that is, semi-finished dishes, whether the restaurant or the family, are bought back to heat up can be served on the table, not the previous model of buying vegetables, cutting vegetables, stir-frying, these new changes, will inevitably bring new business opportunities. Don't talk about consumer investment, traditional thinking and traditional products.

Individual stocks on the market are very active, demon stocks are numerous, individual stocks are strong and strong, and floating capital has considerable dominance. People who like to do short-term, or the previous view, for the new hot topics, mainly two ideas: one is to look at the dragon head in the short line, waiting for the opportunity of the dragon head to pull back; the second is to do rotation, only after the plate effect spreads, it is suitable for tapping the opportunity to make up for the rotation.

The round of rise after the adjustment of the electronic cigarette faucet Shaanxi Jinye belongs to the former idea; as for the metacosm and hydrogen energy, it already belongs to the latter idea. There is a saying that the short-term test is character, the long-term competition is endurance, and investors must recognize that they choose the right trading mode.

Coal led the rally today, much like the market on December 3, with cyclical sectors such as coal, steel, oil and gas, and coal chemicals rebounding sharply, which is related to deviation correction. The coal sector has broken through the short-term pressure, but it is not far from the new pressure, and it is still looked at as a rebound. In the cyclical plate, rare metals are more imaginative, can be closely integrated with new energy, and are more tolerant of capital speculation.

The market is dazzling, a variety of themes are frequent, we must not see what rises to feel what is good, this is the typical dance did not step on the right beat, such as the meta-universe, before the pullback when repeatedly mentioned the opportunity, now up, does not mention the opportunity much. Chasing up is a test of ability, the eyes do not only stare at the rise, picked up sesame seeds, lost watermelons, some strong and recently adjusted, there are also opportunities.

Yesterday said that the Shanghai Composite Index will appear short-term lows, may go to step on the support, only half right, the next key is to observe the index of the above gap to make up and upward strength, if even the gap can not pass, but continuous sideways shock, may still test the support, as long as it is held, the short-term is a strong oscillation structure.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of the relevant state departments, this note does not involve any operational suggestions, and the risk of entering the market is at your own risk.

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