Image source @ Visual China
Wen 丨 Table Appearance (ID: excel-ers), author 丨 He Jinyi Zhang Ranran Huo Chunxiao, editor 丨 Fu Xiaoling Hu Jiawen
By combing through the restaurant industry's Q3 earnings season, we've found some special signs.
On the one hand, takeaway consumption has grown rapidly, and the data shows that as of June 2021, the scale of online takeaway users in China reached 469 million, an increase of 49.76 million over December 2020.
But on the other hand, the life of chain restaurants is not good.
Q3 is generally sluggish, and at the same time in the capital market is also "falling and falling", as shown in the chart below, the stock price has fallen from the beginning of the year to the present.
Coupled with the recent tide of tea and hot spots, Haidilao, etc., people can't help but question: is takeaway and dine-in food a relationship of "one goes and goes"?
Then, this article will analyze the macro environment, revenue and profit of the catering industry.
There is no money in the pocket, and the demand side consumption does not move
As we all know, the impact of the epidemic has accelerated the formation of consumers' takeaway consumption habits. Based on this, takeaway platforms have developed rapidly.
But it is worth noting that although since 2020Q1, the order volume growth rate of Meituan takeaway and Hungry Takeaway has been rising.
According to Ele.me 2021Q3 Conference Call: Driven by the growth of new merchants and user penetration, the order volume growth increased by more than 30% year-on-year (VS more than 50% year-on-year growth in the previous quarter).
However, the overall unit price of the two companies has not changed much. As shown in the chart below, since 2021, the amount of each transaction of Meituan takeaway has been almost flat.
Ele.me, on the other hand, saw a single-digit increase in revenue (7.6 percent) in the year-on-year increase in the number of orders.
This shows that consumers are also very restrained in takeaway consumption. The reason why this is so is related to the macro consumption environment.
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021Q1-Q3, the growth rate of per capita disposable income of residents nationwide has once again slowed down.
There is no money in the pocket, which affects the willingness to spend money.
It can be seen that since the epidemic in 2020, the ratio of per capita consumption expenditure/per capita disposable income of residents nationwide has only been 59%-66%. Previously, this ratio has been stable at the level of 65%-72%.
People tighten their money bags, reflected on the consumer side, that is, the overall total retail sales of consumer goods (hereinafter referred to as "social zero") will continue to slow down in the second half of 2021.
The performance of food and beverage consumption is also in line with the general trend.
From this point of view, the chain catering industry has performed poorly, and the key reason is that consumers cannot buy under the downturn in the economic situation.
That being the case, what does takeaway mean for the catering industry?
What is the impact of takeaway on the revenue of chain restaurants?
In view of the development trend in the field of takeaway, in theory, the impact of takeaway on the overall catering industry is consistent, but in fact, the situation is somewhat differentiated.
Restaurant companies such as Jiumaojiu and Haidilao have seen a sharp increase in takeaway revenue growth during the epidemic, but there has been a significant decline after the epidemic has improved; dine-in income has performed the opposite.
It shows the obvious characteristics of "the east side is not bright and the west side is bright", which also reduces the volatility of income.
Since the epidemic, the takeaway revenue contribution of Neixue's tea has been in a significant state of increase.
This means that takeaway has brought a sustained increase to the chain of tea drinks, but for high-end restaurant companies, its role is more to iron out the epidemic, reduce volatility, and cannot replace dine-in.
The reason for this is that in the two modes, the difficulty of customer unit price positioning and takeaway reach is different.
As far as the unit price of customers is concerned, in the current context of sluggish social zero consumption, you will not have much burden if you order a cup of more expensive milk tea.
It can be seen that the per capita consumption of such casual tea as Naixue's tea is about 35 yuan, and such products do not have too many requirements for consumption scenarios, and takeaway can be satisfied.
But ordering a high-end meal may not be so unthinking.
According to public information, the per capita consumption of such catering takeaways in Haidilao is about 100 yuan. And such a high unit price, but also can not enjoy the restaurant dining environment experience and quality service, consumer acceptance is naturally discounted.
In terms of takeaway reach, it involves the process of supply to delivery.
On the supply side, the inside and outside of the table has been analyzed in the article ""Monopolist" Didi, in name only", and there is a certain physical ceiling for the supply of kitchen capacity after takeaway in restaurant enterprises - "the leverage effect of chefs".
For example, sipping and nursing once said: Because the back kitchen is relatively small, it is difficult to take into account the need for takeaway in the case of sufficient dine-in food.
In terms of demand, people usually choose mid-to-high-end restaurants and attach great importance to the taste of dishes, after all, the price is relatively expensive. However, how to restore the taste of takeaway to the consumption of the store is a big problem.
For example, the data shows that in order to ensure the freshness and quality control of the delivered ingredients, Haidilao has built its own takeaway team and sold matching pots and stoves at the same time.
However, in this way, not only is it difficult to deliver, but the starting price is also further pushed up, often starting from 128 yuan.
The second is more convenient, and there is no special category and tableware for takeaway, but the taste and quantity are difficult to guarantee, and the takeaway reputation is not good.
In contrast, the standardized operation of tea and beverages, the supply space is relatively large, and the characteristics of small size and portable packaging are very suitable for the transition from "take-away" to "takeaway" delivery.
Coupled with the tea drink red envelope subsidy of the takeaway platform - according to the 2021Q3 Meituan financial report: cooperate with many milk tea brands to launch seasonal promotional activities to stimulate milk tea sales. Tea takeaway is often cheaper than going to the store.
The difficulty of making takeaway is different, which obviously affects the strategy of enterprises in takeaway.
For example, according to Neisher's tea 2021HI financial report: the proportion of revenue from takeaway orders will remain relatively stable in the future for a period of time.
In the July 2021 exchange minutes, Jiumaojiu said that Tai'er's takeaway business will continue to be maintained until the epidemic is over.
On the whole, the pulling effect of takeaway on tea companies is obvious, but chain restaurant companies are limited by the unit price and reach problems of customers, and the business focus in the short term will not tend to takeaway, and the growth imagination space is limited.
However, in any case, the increase in takeaway channels has brought incremental revenue to catering stores, hedging the impact of the epidemic on the catering industry and having a positive impact on revenue.
Expanding new channels also means additional costs, so is the money spent on takeaway channels worth it?
6% takeaway commission, is the money worth it?
To see if the takeaway channel is cost-effective, you need to first figure out where the money of the takeaway channel is spent. Below, we analyze the cost structure of food and beverage expenses by disassembling them.
In the chain catering industry, the majority of the cost composition of traditional stores is rent, ingredients, and labor. Among them, the impact of rent on catering businesses is particularly large, and it will not disappear due to unexpected situations such as the epidemic.
Compared with the cost structure of dine-in, the cost of takeaway business is more flexible, taking Meituan takeaway as an example, one of the main fees charged is the technical service fee of the platform, which is the well-known commission, generally 6%-8%, which is only charged in the case of merchants having orders.
In addition, there are increased labor costs - fulfillment service fees, mainly for riders, and this is only available when choosing a platform for delivery.
Based on this, here are Naixue's tea and Haidilao as models, comparing the two models of pure dine-in and "takeaway + dine-in", how efficient it is to spend money.
According to estimates, after the increase of takeaway channels, under the pessimistic, neutral and optimistic assumptions of pure dine-in capacity utilization, the revenue and profit of Naixue's tea single shop have risen.
Among them, under the neutral assumption, compared with pure dine-in, the revenue of a single store after increasing takeaway increased by 2.097 million, and the profit increased by 493,000.
Nesher's tea shop model calculation assumptions:
(1) Pure dine-in only has revenue data, and its cost changes need to be deduced according to the different assumptions of takeaway cost parameters.
(2) Pure dine-in capacity utilization assumption: optimistic assumption: stores do not have spare capacity, and additional labor costs are required to increase takeaway orders = actual total labor costs * proportion of takeaway orders. Neutral hypothesis: the store has a part of the idle capacity, and the additional labor cost required to increase the takeaway order = the actual total labor cost * the proportion of takeaway orders * 1/2. Pessimistic assumption: Stores have sufficient spare capacity, and increasing takeaway orders does not require additional labor costs.
(3) Other cost rates that vary with total revenue - food costs, water and electricity expenses, depreciation and amortization, and other expenses.
(4) Set the store rental cost fixed rent.
Due to the relatively small proportion of takeaway business, Haidilao's impact on the revenue and profit of a single store is not very obvious, but it has also improved.
Haidilao single store model calculation assumptions:
(1) Pure dine-in capacity utilization assumption: optimistic assumption: single store capacity utilization is sufficient, dine-in can cover all fixed costs, takeaway can not share the cost of rent and other costs; neutral: single store has idle capacity, takeaway only needs to occupy part of the kitchen efficiency, so only need to share part of the kitchen rent, 20% (data according to Haidilao prospectus disclosure estimates); pessimistic: kitchen and hall have idle capacity, takeaway and dine-in together with the full rent.
(2) Haidilao expanded its stores in 2021H1, the number of employees increased, but the turnover rate declined, and it was determined that the number of employees in its single store was redundant, so there was no need to recruit additional employees for takeaway orders.
The logic of the rise in profits of a single store is roughly as follows: on the one hand, it brings incremental income, on the other hand, dilutes the rental rate and labor cost rate of the store, and positively promotes the performance of the operating profit of the single store.
Take the store rental rate, the above mentioned traditional store model, rent and labor are hard costs, difficult to avoid. It can be seen that when there is no business in the epidemic store, these expenses are paid correctly - the rent-related cost rates of each chain of restaurants in 2020H1 have risen significantly.
Note: Rent-related costs = Rental expense + associated depreciation amortization
The "cost" of the takeaway model is relatively elastic - the cost of raw materials, commission rates and service fees for riders are directly linked to revenue. At the same time, takeaway can make full use of personnel and store facilities to maximize store capacity utilization.
From this point of view, takeaway, as a supplementary consumption scene in the catering industry during the epidemic, has an impact on catering stores, not the role of competition, but the effect of supplementary profitability.
brief summary
Under the new normal of the epidemic, the performance of catering stocks continues to be poor, in contrast, the takeaway sector has developed considerably. This inevitably makes people question that there is a relationship between takeaway and dine-in.
But the real situation is that under the downturn in the macro environment, everyone as a whole can't buy it, which limits food and beverage consumption.
As a supplementary consumption scenario in the catering industry, takeaway has obvious revenue pulling for chain tea tracks suitable for takeaway since the epidemic; for chain catering enterprises with a small proportion of takeaway business, it can also iron out the fluctuation risk caused by the epidemic.