Suppose Tesla mobile phones can really access the Internet for free

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Recently, the news that Tesla wants to build a mobile phone has been discussed, and the old irons have thought of the name "Model π", which is full of big tricks: free Internet access without SIM card, self-contained brain-computer interface, solar charging, and mining. The configuration is also not low: Snapdragon 895 processor, 200W wired charging, 100W wireless charging, 4K screen, 100 million pixel camera.

Why not use a SIM card to get online for free? Because Musk has a Starlink plan, it intends to launch 12,000 satellites around 2024 to complete the global network, and has initially completed global coverage and trial operations in some countries and regions. Some people say that if Tesla mobile phone can access the Internet for free, it will subvert the communication operator (telecom, mobile, Unicom, etc.), this question is very interesting, let's analyze it.

First of all, from the configuration point of view, the positioning of the Model π is a high-end machine, this configuration does not have 10,000 to have 8,000 bar, people who can afford to use it still account for a minority, if only a very small number of local tycoons can afford to use model π, it is a little unlikely to subvert the communication operator, at most there is a certain impact on the market share of high-end machines.

Suppose that the Model π remove some functions that ordinary people do not need, such as brain-computer interfaces, mining.... Retaining the function of free Internet access, launching a low-end version, and reducing the price to 2000, the impact on communication operators at this time is relatively large. For example, there are 2 people, one person uses the Model π of 2000 yuan, and the other person uses a mobile phone that is 2000 yuan to install a SIM card, the cost is not the same at this time, such as the SIM card mobile phone for 5 years, each month to pay 50 yuan of the fee, that is 50 * 12 * 5 = 3000, that use the SIM card mobile phone This person spends 5000 yuan in 5 years, and the use of Model π 5 years only uses 2000 yuan, this account consumer can calculate clearly, I think most consumers will choose Model π at this time.

There is also a possibility, the Starlink plan is low or free for all people around the world to use, if the Internet speed can reach the same as the communication operator, this time not only the Model π can access the Internet without sim card, other ordinary mobile phones can also use SIM card to access the Internet, then the communication operator is really going to be revolutionized.

You might say that Model π can't do 2,000 yuan, and the Starlink plan can't do free for global users, but Musk's way of thinking is not the same as normal people, and he often looks at problems with a ten-fold speed way of thinking. There is a saying in Silicon Valley that it is much easier to do a thing 10 times better than it was 10% better than it was. Because if you only want to improve by 10%, the usual way is to use more resources and more effort to achieve it, but the method of implementation does not change in essence. But if your goal at the beginning is to improve by 10 times, then the methods of the past are certainly useless, you have to force yourself to do fundamental innovation, you have to break some basic assumptions.

When Musk wanted to build an electric car, he found that just a battery cost 50,000 US dollars, he bought the best performance battery on the market after disassembling and found that the battery is just composed of ordinary elements such as lead, copper, tin, etc., these things are only 13% of the cost, so he reached a cooperation with Panasonic, using panasonic 18650 lithium cobalt oxide battery management program, reorganizing the battery of Tesla electric vehicles, and achieved major success, in one fell swoop The price of the battery dropped sharply, tesla also became the best selling electric vehicle. For example, the cost of launching a rocket is extremely high, generally more than 100 million US dollars, how can the cost of launch be reduced by 10 times? So SpaceX's recyclable rockets came out.

The two examples I give are considered from the perspective of cost, combined with Coase's transaction cost theory (simply speaking, transaction cost refers to the time and money cost paid by buyers and sellers), you can also use the ten times the speed theory from the perspective of time, such as from Beijing to New York, the fastest means of transportation on the earth will fly for more than 10 hours, and whether there will be a means of transportation in the future, from Beijing to New York in only 1 hour. Regardless of whether we can do it or not, using ten times the speed to help us think about problems is of great help to us in product innovation.

Finally, whether the Model π can subvert the operator, whether it can subvert Apple is not important, what is important is the idea of product innovation provided to us by Tesla mobile phones. What is the most important thing about our products? It must be innovative, because without innovative products, it should not be done at all. Should mobile Internet really be charged? The network as an infrastructure, in the future, really does not have to charge, perhaps in the future that company finds a suitable business model, it will subvert the current traditional communication operators.

What do you think? Welcome to leave a message to talk about.

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I am Hua Tsai

Founder of "Change Society"

Author of the best-selling book "Data in Taiwan"

Dry middle platform, find Hua Tsai