Bian Fengwei: The market style transformation is about to come out

This week, the market is surging and the RRR is down, the important meeting is mentioned again the "six stability and six guarantees" work, the Shanghai 50 index has come out of the breakthrough situation after more than 4 months of shocks, and the market style conversion is about to come out.

The call for high-low switching has been many times since August, and the impression is that at the end of August, cement infrastructure had a wave of rebound in the context of the autumn start of construction and price increases, but then the drag of limited electricity production was lower again; Around October, with the central bank's proposal on the reasonable demand for real estate funds, real estate financial stocks rebounded once, but then the rebound was blocked by the real estate tax news; This is the third large-scale market attempt to switch between high and low. From the perspective of this week's disk, the real estate industry chain up to the bank, down to the decoration of the home has a good market, it seems that the switch from quantitative change to qualitative change of the establishment of the situation, blue chip return or in the winter to make a trip.

From the perspective of policy background, in November, the middle and high-level officials held a symposium on the economic situation experts and entrepreneurs, at which the "six stability and six guarantees" were mentioned, and especially the "main body of the market to ensure employment and people's livelihood"; After the central bank released the third quarter monetary policy report, the report deleted the "resolutely do not engage in flood irrigation" and other words, put forward "the current difficulty of maintaining the stable operation of the economy increased" and other words, to this week's RRR cut, it can be seen that the adjustment of monetary policy has been started; This week's important meeting is to propose to the economy next year to "stabilize the word, seek progress in stability, monetary policy should be flexible and moderate, and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity," which has made obvious changes in the formulation of some industries.

For example, for the real estate industry, since the third quarter, the "housing is not speculated" that has lasted for several years has obviously been mentioned less, replaced by "to meet the reasonable housing needs, to meet the reasonable capital needs of housing enterprises, the real estate industry to develop a virtuous circle of healthy development" and other terms, these references have not been seen for many years, combined with the current stable growth background, we believe that the policy environment of real estate infrastructure has changed significantly, and after years of emphasis and control, there have been many changes within the real estate industry, financial deleveraging, Debt explosion, industry sales freezing, etc., at this time it seems to be based on affordable housing as a new expansion, superimposed mergers and acquisitions in the industry and a new round of competition in the supply chain of housing enterprises has been launched, these policy superpositions will be an important change in the fundamentals of the industry in this round, and the high and low switching of funds is finally waiting for effective external forces.

For the height and time of this round of switching, we believe that at least the quarter is above, first of all, to stabilize the economy, and then it is the Spring Festival, so it takes at least a quarter of economic data to pick up to prove the effectiveness of the policy, and the sales data of real estate infrastructure has not yet improved, so the data after the Spring Festival is the key, at this time the policy bottom has appeared, the market bottom is established this week, and then it is to see the rhythm of various funds, the market is slowly developing in hesitation, but these should not affect the final direction of the market.

The New Year's Market seems to have unfolded, after experiencing the consumption market in 2020 and the new energy market in 2021, it seems that the most cost-effective at present is the low valuation blue chip, and this round of switching under the impetus of the policy will come to fruition, waiting for the results.

(The author is Guotai Junan Shanghai Research Director)