#U.S. Economy #用工荒 #
The temptation of year-end awards has led to a decline in the turnover rate in the United States, but job vacancies are still close to historical highs, and many people still have no intention of going to work. Lack of people, money, inflation, as if it has become a dead cycle.
The shift in monetary policy is set, but at least in the near future, the United States will continue to explore the two seemingly contradictory factors of inflation and employment.
At the end of the year, many companies in the United States choose to use year-end bonuses to retain people, which also makes the turnover rate usher in a long-lost decline. On Wednesday, the Labor Department's Job Vacancies and Labor Mobility Survey (JOLTS) showed that the U.S. job resignation rate fell to 2.8 percent from a record 3 percent last month, the first decline since May, suggesting that businesses have made some progress in retaining workers.
In particular, the number of resignations in the transportation and warehousing, financial and entertainment industries has declined, which may be related to the additional incentives for enterprises. Just on Wednesday, Devon Energy, the largest independent oil and gas company in the United States, announced that its 1,600 regular employees would receive bonus checks for $10,000 each.
That comes after U.S. meat giant Tyson Foods announced on Monday that it plans to hand out year-end bonuses totaling about $50 million to more than 80,000 front-line workers and hourly workers at its meat processing plant.
However, even if the turnover rate has declined, many positions are still short of people.
In October, U.S. job openings rose to 11 million from 10.6 million in September, higher than economists' forecast of 10.5 million, jumping to the second highest on record. Vacancies in the lodging and restaurant, manufacturing and education sectors have increased, and U.S. companies continue to face challenges in hiring.
This means that despite higher wages and bonuses, the shortage of people in businesses remains dire, and it may take some time for the supply of labor to keep up with the demand of businesses. To make matters worse, the spread of the Omiljun strain has revived the epidemic in many parts of the world, and the tightening of epidemic prevention measures and infection risks have complicated things.
At present, the labor shortage in the United States has even spread to the industry of "Santa Claus" actors. Salaries for playing Santa Claus have risen 15 percent this year to $10,000, but still can't find a suitable candidate.
Mitch Allen, founder of talent agency Hire Santa, said there are currently about 3,000 Santa Claus jobs in the United States, working as Santa Claus in shopping malls, homes and businesses.
Not only that, according to the information collected by Allen, more than 300 Santa Artists have died of COVID-19, and many more are reluctant to play Santa Claus because they are afraid of infection.
In this regard, Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said that at present, the shortage of labor market in the United States is more serious. Although the unemployment rate is falling, the labor force participation rate is also falling, voluntary unemployment has increased, and many laborers have voluntarily withdrawn from the labor market.
In general, the number of unemployed and job vacancies is relatively close. But according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 7.4 million Americans were unemployed in October, well below the total number of job openings, meaning millions of Americans temporarily opted out of the workforce.
In this regard, Wang Youxin pointed out that a large part of the reason is that the financial subsidy measures introduced by the United States for workers and families have increased the excess savings of households, and even if they are not employed, they can meet the needs of daily life.
According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, since the outbreak of the epidemic, American households have accumulated nearly $1.6 trillion in "excess savings", which is much higher than the amount of emergency savings for 3-6 months, inhibiting the desire for employment, especially for low-income people. As a result, job vacancies in the United States are more of a legacy of active fiscal policy.
Indeed, since last year, the United States has distributed round after round of "life-saving money" to tens of millions of people in response to the impact of the new crown epidemic. On December 27 last year, former President Donald Trump signed a package of about $2.3 trillion in spending bills, including the $1.4 trillion federal government consolidated spending bill and $900 billion in bailouts aimed at dealing the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
In March, new President Joe Biden signed another $1.9 trillion in "U.S. Rescue Program." The plan increased the weekly allowance for the unemployed from $300 to $400 and provided an additional $1,400 in direct subsidies to most Americans.
There is also an analysis that due to the impact of the epidemic, the American people are pessimistic about the development of the epidemic, while the catering industry, transportation industry, and manufacturing industry have a large work intensity, less salary and compensation, and a greater risk of contracting the virus. When subsidies are available, people are naturally reluctant to work in this area.
In addition, compulsory vaccination has also become a factor that reduces people's willingness to work, and many workers in enterprises have left their jobs because they have not been vaccinated on time.
According to a survey, 5 percent of unvaccinated workers in the U.S. have left their jobs because of mandatory vaccination orders, and a whopping 74 percent of respondents said they would leave if they were required to be vaccinated by their employers.
John Taylor, CEO of the American Society for Human Resource Management, said, "We are worried about the enforcement of mandatory vaccination orders, the challenges are very big, and we will lose employees, and one thing is that from a supply chain perspective, we also need to question whether mandatory vaccination orders should be enforced, because we are entering the Christmas season and need to prepare gifts for children."
But even so, a separate survey from the American Chamber of Commerce and MetLife showed that 61 percent of small business owners have implemented or plan to implement mandatory vaccination orders, and 43 percent said they would lay off employees who refused to do so.
It cannot be ignored that the labor shortage not only affects the job market, but also becomes a major factor in driving up inflation in the United States. U.S. inflation reached 6.2 percent in October, well above the Fed's 2 percent target and at its highest level in 31 years.
An economist survey released by the National Business Economics Association on the 6th showed that due to many factors such as strong demand, rising wages, and bottlenecks in the supply chain, high inflation in the United States will continue until at least 2023.
According to the survey, economists cite supply chain bottlenecks, rising wages and rising demand for housing as key factors driving U.S. prices. Among them, 43% of economists expect supply chain bottlenecks to ease from the second quarter of next year, and 37% expect to ease from the first quarter of next year.
The survey also shows that economists on average expect the U.S. economy to grow by 5.5 percent throughout the year and slow to 3.9 percent next year. More than half of the economists surveyed expect full employment by the end of next year.
However, a raise is probably not a panacea. Rising incomes were largely offset by rising inflation. According to an analysis by Jason Furman, a professor of economics at Harvard University, inflation-adjusted, salaries in the U.S. are currently lower than they were in December 2019.
Furman said: "The overheating of the economy has pushed prices up more than wages. The employment cost index fell in the last quarter and, if inflation is taken into account, is 2% lower than the pre-pandemic trend. ”
According to a survey released by Gallup Consulting on December 2, 45% of American households have experienced financial difficulties of varying degrees, 10% of households believe that financial difficulties have seriously affected their current lives; 71% of low-income households have experienced financial difficulties due to rising prices, and have been most affected by inflation.
Wang Youxin believes that the current job vacancies have seriously affected the US supply chain and logistics, raised prices and wage levels, and shifted the focus of monetary policy operations from promoting the economy to preventing inflation.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Tao Feng zhao Tianshu