Forbes: The U.S. china policy in many fields is counterproductive

Stuart Anderson, executive director of the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), a public policy research institute, wrote in Forbes about U.S. China policy in three areas, including trade, semiconductors and immigration, saying that these policies, which supporters call "tough", have had a counterproductive effect.

On May 29, 2020, then-President Trump issued a presidential proclamation "suspending the entry of certain students and researchers from China as nonimmigrants." At the heart of the announcement is the denial of visas to students enrolled in a university on the ban list.

At least thousands of Chinese graduate students and researchers were denied visas according to the announcement. Despite many requests, the State Department has yet to release the information, so the exact number is not known. And the official data is not enough to reflect the actual impact of the announcement, as there are many people who will not even apply if they think they will be refused.

This policy is costly for the United States. According to an analysis by NFAP, for every 1,000 PhD students denied a visa in a year, U.S. universities would generate an expected loss of about $210 billion in the expected value of patents over a 10-year period, and nearly $1 billion in tuition fees. And that doesn't include other economic costs, such as the loss of scientists and engineers who can bring high productivity. About 75 percent of graduate students majoring in computer science and electrical engineering at U.S. universities are international students, mainly from China and India.

President Joe Biden. (Image source: Associated Press)

The Biden administration has continued the Trump administration's strategy for Chinese graduate students. A recent survey conducted by the MIT Technology Review found that America's ability to attract innovative talent is already threatened.

In the semiconductor sector, when the United States expands sanctions and tightens restrictions on the sale of semiconductors and related technologies to China, a technology executive said the restrictions will incentivize China to invest more in the semiconductor industry.

Sanctions against China have also hurt the ability of U.S. semiconductor companies to innovate. According to the Boston Consulting Group, the scale provided by China's large and growing market is a key factor in propelling the U.S. industry into a virtuous cycle of innovation. A report by the Semiconductor Industry Association said: "Semiconductors are the fifth-largest export product in the United States, and sales around the world provide the necessary revenue. Recent regulations have inadvertently undermined U.S. leadership in semiconductors. ”

On trade, the Trump administration has tried to change China's policy by imposing tariffs on Chinese goods. However, this measure did not succeed, and China's policy did not change as a result. Instead, countermeasures from China have hurt U.S. exports, and Mr. Trump has paid an unprecedented $28 billion in subsidies to American farmers.

The U.S. economy has also been hurt by tariffs. According to research by Mary Amiti, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, tariffs on Chinese products have cost U.S. listed companies about $1.7 trillion in market capitalization. A forthcoming paper by Bryan Riley of the National Taxpayers Union concludes that China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) has not hampered U.S. manufacturing power, suggesting that the Trump administration's premise for launching a trade war is wrong.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tariffs cost U.S. households an average of more than $1,200 a year. (End)