Conjecture of the economic "spring, summer, autumn and winter" and "baby boom" effects

The logic of the economic cycle "spring, summer, autumn and winter" is sorted out: 1, the recovery period: the productivity is gradually restored, employment is increasing, and the economy is gradually recovering; because the severe winter has just passed, the cautious psychology is widespread, and consumer confidence has not yet recovered. (Manifested in the increase in GDP growth and the decline in CPI growth); 2, the overheating period: rapid economic growth, a sharp increase in employment, generally began to expand production in debt, income increased; consumer confidence recovered, and consumer enthusiasm soared. Out of optimism about the future, debt consumption began to appear. (Manifested in the rise in GDP growth and the increase in CPI growth); 3, the period of stagflation: due to excessive debt problems, overcapacity problems, the economy bubble, the bubble began to gradually burst. Factory closures began. However, due to the fact that people still accumulate a lot of funds in their hands during the overheating period, the consumption habits of extravagant spending have not changed, and consumption still remains at a high level. (Manifested in a decline in GDP growth and an increase in CPI growth); 4, a recession period: a decline in productivity, due to debt problems, a large number of factories closed down, unemployment increased; consumption enthusiasm seriously declined, began to pay attention to savings, and prices fell. (Manifested by a decline in GDP growth and a decline in CPI growth).

It is also interesting to understand that the economic cycle is very correlated with the growth trajectory of the highest population ("baby boom"), which is not difficult to understand, the supply side needs the population to contribute productivity, and the demand side needs the population to contribute to consumption. As a member of the "baby boom", it seems that there is such an experience: when we join the work, it is the recovery period (the demographic dividend is coming), we start to become the backbone of the work is the overheating period (productivity has gone up, consumption has also gone up), and our current state is the stagflation period (production enthusiasm declines, consumption enthusiasm is still high), hahaha. Will we enter a recession when we retire? (Productivity declines, and consumer enthusiasm translates into pension money.) This is not necessarily Ha, because society is developing, and the labor productivity at that time will definitely be greatly improved by artificial intelligence, Internet +, etc. And the country has also liberalized the three-child policy, we still have to be full of hope for the future.