Zhong Zhengsheng et al.: The overseas epidemic has prolonged the high prosperity of China's exports

　　China-Singapore Longitude and Latitude December 8 Title: The overseas epidemic situation has prolonged the high prosperity of China's exports

　　The author is Zhong Zhengsheng Chief Economist of Ping An Securities and Director of the Research Institute

　　Lu Zhang Senior Macro Analyst at Ping An Securities

　　In dollar terms, China's exports rose 22 percent year-on-year, imports rose 31.7 percent year-on-year, and trade surpluses of $71.72 billion, according to customs data.

　　Since late October, after a new round of epidemics has been affected overseas, the high boom in China's imports and exports has continued. Judging from the two-year average data of exports and imports, both the year-on-year growth rate and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the month continue to rise.

　　By product, the pull of major products on exports in November (two-year average) was flat or rebounded. Mechanical and electrical products are still the main force driving exports, and the contribution rate to export growth has also increased. The outbreak of a new round of epidemics overseas has once again increased the import demand for China's epidemic prevention materials. The poor recovery in capacity in Southeast Asian countries has helped boost China's exports of labor-intensive products.

　　By country, in November (two-year average), ASEAN and the EU increased their exports to China the most. The pull on U.S. exports to China remained high.

　　The recent outbreak of a new outbreak overseas remains the primary reason for the high level of Chinese exports. The European region has been particularly affected by the outbreak, and the emergence of the Aomi Kerong variant virus has increased the uncertainty of the spread of the epidemic. In this case, many European countries have tightened epidemic prevention measures, which not only exacerbated the already tight supply chain problem, but also limited the recovery of their production capacity. At the same time, although international commodity prices fell in November, the year-on-year growth rate was still at a high level, continuing to support China's exports.

　　The mutation and rapid spread of the new crown virus overseas will prolong the period of time that China's export market share will be at a high level, but it will also bring challenges to China's prevention and control of the epidemic. The more contagious nature of the virus means higher costs of epidemic prevention. This is one of the important reasons why the central bank has recently cut the RRR comprehensively, and the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee has emphasized "focusing on stabilizing the macroeconomic market".

　　In November, crude oil, integrated circuits, coal and lignite, agricultural products, automatic data processing equipment and its parts and components were greatly affected by imports. From the price point of view, the import prices of energy commodities such as coal and lignite, crude oil, refined oil, and natural gas are still at a high level year-on-year, and the high price of bulk commodities is still supporting imports and exports, but the import prices of most products have begun to fall year-on-year. From the perspective of volume, the growth rate of imports of most products has increased year-on-year, especially the import volume of coal and lignite coal has increased by 200.3% year-on-year. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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