Recently, on December 6, according to the Russian Satellite News Agency, Elbridge Cole, former assistant to the US Defense Secretary, said that the United States needs to fight a "limited war" with China. The purpose is not only to "defend Taiwan," but also to "prevent China from dominating Asia."
What Elbridge Cole calls a "limited war" is a local high-intensity conventional war while ensuring that neither China nor the United States uses nuclear weapons. Cole believes that the United States can use conventional war to win Iraq and Afghanistan, and it must also use conventional war to interrupt China's rise.
In 2018, Elbridge Cole formulated the U.S. national defense strategy for that year, adjusting the U.S. defense strategy from "war on terror" to "great power competition." China and Russia are what Kohl considers "potential rivals."
Pay attention to the US Department of Defense's news about China in the past year, and you will find that the United States is very concerned about China's nuclear warheads and nuclear vehicles. The United States has repeatedly wanted China to participate in nuclear arms control negotiations, but Russia has refused. This also proves that at present, many people in the US military believe that nuclear weapons are important weapons that affect the balance between China, the United States and Russia.
For Americans like Elbridge Cole, they envisioned the world as the United States making the rules and governing it. One or two countries are allowed to appear in all regions of the world, but there must be no "regional hegemons" that affect the free movement of U.S. influence. At present, China and Russia, in the eyes of the "Coles", are the "regional hegemons" that should be suppressed.
But as China and Russia "huddled together for warmth," the United States began to find itself in a very awkward situation. The United States is eager to engage in a pure, World War II-style "total war" with China and Russia. That is to say, under the condition that no one uses nuclear weapons, large-scale destruction of people's livelihood facilities, production facilities and infrastructure facilities on the mainland of China and Russia will weaken the development forces of China and Russia.
But China and Russia are not only permanent members of the UN Security Council, but both are not weak in nuclear forces. Once the U.S. military launches an attack on the Chinese and Russian homelands, the probability of a nuclear strike on the U.S. homeland is very high. When facing the Ukraine issue, Russia directly stated that Russia would use nuclear weapons to solve the problem when necessary, so that the United States did not dare to mess around.
U.S. concerns about Russia also appear in China. For the United States, the United States knows that it cannot save Taiwan. Therefore, the best result for the United States is to take advantage of the war in the Taiwan Strait to impose an economic blockade on China, and it is best to "accidentally blow up" the southeast coastal economic belt with the strongest Chinese economy and severely damage China's economic zone.
However, the economic zone along the southeast coast is China's mainland, and during the Period of the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, the United States did not dare to bomb China's southeast coastal areas, and bombing China's southeast coastal areas by means of war in the Taiwan Strait was already a direct attack on China's mainland. Moreover, in the face of China's "anti-entry/area denial" combat system, the ONLY thing the US military can use is long-range missiles.
No one can guarantee that the US military's long-range missiles will use conventional warheads, without any nuclear warheads. Therefore, after China discovers that the US long-range missiles are attacking its own homeland, it is also likely to launch a "counterattack" on the US mainland.
Of course, this also proves from the other side that nuclear weapons are currently important to China. In order to ensure The safety of China itself, it is necessary for China to increase the number of nuclear warheads and optimize the performance of nuclear vehicles.
What are the current conventional military forces of China and the United States competing in the East Asian region? The answer is their own long-range attack capabilities. To put it more bluntly, it is to extend your attack distance even further.
After the chinese DF-17 hypersonic missile entered service, the U.S. Army, Navy and Air Force rushed to launch and accelerate their hypersonic missile programs, which is for this reason. However, what China and the United States are competing in the near future is the aerial tanker.
At the end of November, the Chinese Oil-20 large aerial refueling tanker appeared in the airspace between the main island of Taiwan and the Bashi Strait, the US Department of Defense suddenly became nervous, and the current US Secretary of Defense Austin even directly said that the PLA's activities in the airspace of the Taiwan Strait were actually "rehearsals".
Subsequently, the US MQ-25 "Stingray" unmanned tanker officially boarded the US Navy's "George Bush" nuclear-powered aircraft carrier for testing. Prior to this, the Stingray carrier-based unmanned refueling aircraft had successfully refueled the F-35C stealth carrier-based aircraft, the Super Hornet fighter and the E-2D Hawkeye carrier-based early warning aircraft.
At present, the Chinese weapon that the US Navy considers to be the greatest threat to itself is the DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missile, which is commonly known as the "Guam Express". The U.S. military believes that the maximum range of the DF-26 is 4,000 kilometers, and at present, the U.S. military does not have a safe means to ensure the elimination of the threat posed by the DF-26, and it is best for the U.S. aircraft carrier to fly a carrier-based aircraft to attack at a distance of 4,000 kilometers.
The U.S. Navy's F-35C stealth carrier-based aircraft currently has a combat radius of 1,240 kilometers (670 nautical miles), and without the support of aerial refueling tankers, even if it is a one-way suicide attack, it is about 1,500 kilometers away from the target airspace. Considering that the U.S. military's active KC-46/46A aerial tankers are easily intercepted, the U.S. Navy's F-35C fleet, if it really wants to take off from more than 4,000 kilometers away, the MQ-25 "Stingray" carrier-based unmanned tanker that can accompany the F-35C is necessary.
At present, the fuel load of the "Stingray" unmanned tanker is about 6.8 tons, if you want to ensure that the F-35C can return smoothly, then from the attack to the welcome, the ratio of F-35C and "Stingray" should be around 1:3.
But the U.S. Navy currently has only 72 Stingrays on order and is expected to form an initial combat capability in 2025. Only 72 Stingrays can guarantee a wave of attacks from 24 F-35Cs. Based on the fact that the U.S. Navy's current Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier can only carry a squadron of 12 F-35Cs, it can only support two US aircraft carrier battle groups to launch a wave of attacks.
Moreover, from more than 4,000 kilometers away, the pilots of the F-35C will not be able to reach the target airspace until they have been flying for 7 to 9 hours. However, the PLA's aviation forces are completely idle and more efficient.
Taking the J-16 heavy fighter, which the Platon's Liberation Army is currently equipping in large quantities, as an example, the combat radius of the J-16 heavy fighter is 1850 kilometers. With the support of the Oil-20 air tanker, its combat radius can be fully increased to about 2500 kilometers. At this distance, the Y-20 is completely within the protection of the Chinese aviation force.
Therefore, even if China promises not to use nuclear weapons and fight a "limited war" that the "Coles" most want to fight, the United States may not be able to get any bargains.
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